Regularly delayed flights

 
Old Jan 16, 14, 9:59 am
  #1  
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Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: SNA
Posts: 402
Regularly delayed flights

I was scheduled last night on flight 1673 from BNA to DFW, then making a connection in DFW to SNA. I had what I thought was a fairly long 1 hour, 50 minute layover in DFW, so I wasn't worried at all about making my connection. But 1673 started out a little bit delayed, and kept getting more delayed until it was obvious I wouldn't be able to make my connection. So I had the (wonderful) agents in the Admiral's Club rebook me onto a direct flight into LAX (which entailed a much longer and more expensive ride home, but I actually got home earlier than I originally would have anyway).

I took a look this morning, and 1673 ended up being a whopping 6 hours delayed arriving in DFW. That prompted me to look at the history, and it looks like this flight gets long delays fairly frequently.

My question to you all is, at what point do you start going out of your way to simply not book flights that have this kind of on-time performance? 71% doesn't sound that bad, especially with a two hour layover on the other end, but my connection is the last flight of the night to SNA, so the consequences of missing it are high. On the other hand, from a timing perspective, this is the best flight for me on several upcoming trips, so there are downsides to avoiding it as well.

I'm curious to hear your thought process in situations like this.
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Old Jan 16, 14, 10:03 am
  #2  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
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3676 and 3678 (DEN to LAX) were similar - flightstats had an on time performance worse than 95% of flights. I started flying DEN - DFW - LAX just to avoid the inevitable cluster that resulted with the delays/cancellations.
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Old Jan 16, 14, 2:04 pm
  #3  
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It all depends on the circumstances; what is awaiting me at destination, availability of other options, pricing of other options, etc. etc. Having said that, I will never book without taking a look at on-time arrival stats.

71% is fairly awful, definitely below average. Remember that on-time has been co opted and does not mean on-time, rather arrival within 15 minutes of schedule: truly on-time arrivals are far lower than 71%. Also, always look at the distribution of the delays -- the history is that 18% of the time it's either cancelled or is excessively late.

[Edited to add: Flightstats says under overall characteristics: "The score, 0.1, shows that this flight has on-time performance characteristics better than 1% of all other flights in the FlightStats database." -- so it's beyond awful, it's in the bottom 1%!]
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