AA looking to a strong Q3?

 
Old Jul 12, 10, 10:31 am
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AA looking to a strong Q3?

Of course it is early, but based on my bookings, it looks like it may be a very good quarter. I have a few TATL's scheduled in the next 2 months (LHR-BOS, JFK, ORD) and most of the flights look to be over 90% capacity.

Do others find it true on their flights?
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Old Jul 12, 10, 10:42 am
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My flights to/from Brasil are always close to 100% full
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Old Jul 12, 10, 10:47 am
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Originally Posted by tenn_ace View Post
Of course it is early, but based on my bookings, it looks like it may be a very good quarter.
Since flight load and profitability have little to do with one another (SJC-NRT, anyone), I think that making inferences about AA's bottom line based on the number of open seats on your flight is an extreme stretch. Released profitability numbers? That's a little closer to relevant.

Cheers.
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Old Jul 12, 10, 10:50 am
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Most of my flights have been crowded or nearly full for the better part of the last 10 years and we all know how well that helped profitability over that period. Full planes to Europe in July and August is certainly not a new situation.

That said, analysts are predicting that AA will report a profit in the third quarter (as they are predicting that every airline will likely do the same).
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Old Jul 12, 10, 11:05 am
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Originally Posted by brp View Post
Since flight load and profitability have little to do with one another (SJC-NRT, anyone), I think that making inferences about AA's bottom line based on the number of open seats on your flight is an extreme stretch. Released profitability numbers? That's a little closer to relevant.

Cheers.
Of course, no doubt, but the prices are also noticeably higher this summer travel period than previous 2-3 years (in my experience).
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Old Jul 12, 10, 11:07 am
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Originally Posted by FWAAA View Post
Most of my flights have been crowded or nearly full for the better part of the last 10 years and we all know how well that helped profitability over that period. Full planes to Europe in July and August is certainly not a new situation.That said, analysts are predicting that AA will report a profit in the third quarter (as they are predicting that every airline will likely do the same).

Not last year and not on my flights.
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Old Jul 12, 10, 12:44 pm
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It depends on how you define "strong". The third quarter is traditionally the most profitable/least unprofitable quarter for US airlines. Air travel is up this year over last year. Stronger than last year? Yes, I expect that.
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Old Jul 12, 10, 1:25 pm
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Originally Posted by brp View Post
Since flight load and profitability have little to do with one another (SJC-NRT, anyone), I think that making inferences about AA's bottom line based on the number of open seats on your flight is an extreme stretch. Released profitability numbers? That's a little closer to relevant.
Full flights do not necessarily imply profitability, but empty flights can be causally linked to a lack of profitability... Better than seeing 60% loads, IMO.
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Old Jul 12, 10, 1:55 pm
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Yes, higher fares and heavy load factors should turn AA profitable by the second or third quarter. The interesting question is if load factors continue to be high and fares continue upward at one point do the lccs start on a growth binge again. Over the past couple of years they have pulled back on heavy expansion. But if they see good times again, will they soon say lets get some more 737/320/319s and start invading legacy turf again.
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Old Jul 12, 10, 8:58 pm
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So whats the point of this thread? Are we now predicting the accuracy of what analysts are predicting?

Not directed at the OP, but doesn't take long to state the obvious.
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