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Odds of getting off waitlist? and other ANA questions

Odds of getting off waitlist? and other ANA questions

Old Jan 13, 23, 11:11 pm
  #1  
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Odds of getting off waitlist? and other ANA questions

I'm looking at taking my first trip to Japan in October, and while I'm super excited, I, like so many others, seem to be having an incredibly tough time finding award availability. I'm not necessarily tied to one specific product but given the long flight from New York would really prefer to be in Business or First. I'm currently sitting on ~120k MR, ~100k Capital One Miles, and ~60k TYP so ideally would like to book through Virgin, but I think could do business by transferring MR. I've set up alerts through ExpertFlyer but was wondering if availability is any better directly through the ANA website. If so, what are the chances of getting off of the waitlist?

The other option of course is to fly into / out of different airports. I figured that Tokyo would have the best award availability but maybe that isn't the case? Or maybe another airport in the US? I don't need to leave from New York, but would want the airport to be fairly close to minimize any chance of delays causing me to miss the flight to Japan.
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Old Jan 14, 23, 2:46 pm
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I am in similar situation as yours and probably thousands (or more) of other people who sit on hundreds of thousands of credit card reward points accumulated over the last two or three years due to the pandemic no-travel. The premier cabin airfare between U.S. and Asia is through the roof now and that makes your reward points extremely valuable if redeeming on U.S.-Asia route. Everybody knows this now. Your chance of getting off the waitlist and have a confirmed award ticket in premier cabin is about the same as winning the lottery, especially if you are not a ANA elite flyer. In the meantime, you have to transfer your points to ANA BERORE you can get on the waitlist, you risk the chance of locking your points at ANA program, with no way out.
P.S. We all have set up alerts at Expert Flyers too.
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Old Jan 14, 23, 11:39 pm
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I was waitlisted for several (6) months to BKK. It cleared from SFO to Japan but the other leg to Bangkok didn't. What's confusing is the fees they are charging for taxes and so forth. When I originally booked it was well under $400 but last time, I checked it was over $900. Honestly it just isn't worth it to me. I'm doing other travel without these points and am keeping an eye on things for any changes. Also having to still wear a mask on ANA flights doesn't make it any more attractive to me! 110K points and over $900? I think I'll pass on this trip for now!
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Old Jan 15, 23, 2:51 am
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ANA updates their fuel surcharge prices every three months, which would explain the difference in price that you saw when you check months ago and now.
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Old Jan 16, 23, 6:34 pm
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Originally Posted by dirtrat View Post
I was waitlisted for several (6) months to BKK. It cleared from SFO to Japan but the other leg to Bangkok didn't. What's confusing is the fees they are charging for taxes and so forth. When I originally booked it was well under $400 but last time, I checked it was over $900. Honestly it just isn't worth it to me. I'm doing other travel without these points and am keeping an eye on things for any changes. Also having to still wear a mask on ANA flights doesn't make it any more attractive to me! 110K points and over $900? I think I'll pass on this trip for now!
I suppose your other travels are all in economy class? Premier cabin fares have gone through the roof after Covid.
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Old Jan 16, 23, 7:23 pm
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Itís a needle in hay stack. Letís hope someone cancels or changes their flight. Also ANA release availability 2-3 weeks in advance as well.
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Old Jan 17, 23, 10:00 pm
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Originally Posted by risenshine85 View Post
Itís a needle in hay stack. Letís hope someone cancels or changes their flight. Also ANA release availability 2-3 weeks in advance as well.
Personally I prefer having my long haul international flight booking confirmed at least one month in advance. But I suppose there are people who have flexible schedule and can just pick up and go for the sake of a free business class ticket, these people are usually the winners of the J award tickets.

Last edited by Mama; Jan 18, 23 at 4:38 pm
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Old Jan 18, 23, 10:15 am
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likewise, I think it's too much of a risk for my apetite too.
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Old Jan 20, 23, 1:00 am
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Can someone explains how the ANA waitlist works? Iím not able to find clear answers online.

Do you only clear if another person on an award ticket cancels?
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Old Jan 20, 23, 9:54 am
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you clear if you're the 1st on the waitlist and the ticket holder cancels.It's literally a line that goes in order and if you're 1st in line you're next to be offered the opportunity to book it.
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Old Jan 20, 23, 10:05 am
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Originally Posted by nilyaj View Post
you clear if you're the 1st on the waitlist and the ticket holder cancels.It's literally a line that goes in order and if you're 1st in line you're next to be offered the opportunity to book it.
So the ticket holder can be holding either a cash or award ticket? What if the Business or First cabin have a lot of empty seats?
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Old Jan 20, 23, 12:02 pm
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Originally Posted by sfflyer415 View Post
So the ticket holder can be holding either a cash or award ticket? What if the Business or First cabin have a lot of empty seats?
The ticket holder can be an upgrade or an award ticket. Upgrades have a different bucket so thatís not necessarily going to get an award ticket cleared even if an upgrade is cancelled.

Cash tickets for J/F cabin are unlikely to affect awards if theyíre cancelled. ANA will fly with a lot of empty seats in J and F instead releasing a ton of award space.

Waitlist almost never clears. Never has for me as a Diamond / Million Miler, but there may be some bias here as I hardly ever try to book waitlisted awards.
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Old Jan 20, 23, 12:45 pm
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Thanks for the reply, this is good to know, I don't think I'll ever apply for a Waitlist award flight then.
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Old Jan 21, 23, 8:21 am
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If you are trying to redeem Amex MR points for ANA award ticket, you need to transfer points to ANA BEFORE you can get on waitlist. If your ticket is not confirmed, you can not transfer those points back out.
edit to add: there are plenty of economy award seats available. But Premier cabin award is what frustrates people.

Last edited by Mama; Jan 21, 23 at 8:34 am
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Old Jan 24, 23, 1:09 am
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If ANA opens new last-minute availabilities, does anyone know if it goes to the waitlist first or does it gets released to the general public first?
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