Upgrade Clear chances

Old Nov 23, 18, 12:34 pm
  #1  
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Join Date: Nov 2018
Programs: OZ Dia+, NH Plat, JL Sapphire
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Upgrade Clear chances

Hi Guys,

A newbie in the flyertalk forum, but I had been mining the threads for a long time as a guest
I'm booking a LAX-NRT flight on 12/3 (so less than 2 weeks of departure), while I saw an upgrade seat available so I jumped to call the phone rep (Since I wanted to book specific classes where the website doesn't allow us to do so)
However, out of my luck, when I finished booking the only seat was snatched by another guy so I was stuck in Y and paid a huge load of cash in my H class ticket.
Although the rep comforted me that I still have a chance since I was the only one lining up for J (And I'm PLAT as well), I wonder how are the chances that I get cleared up.
BTW there are still ~14 J seats empty (according to the seat map)
I know that's it's a kinda old-school every-day question, but I really wanna know how things are going in 2018 so far. especially for those who has a status with NH.
I read through the forum and various JP blogs, seems that people with elite status normally clear through at a ~90% rate (including at gate), but I dunno if that's the case for me since I booked so closed-in.

Do you guys recommend me to pray and hold on tight? Or Rebook the return flight on H in Feb instead and waitlist forever?(I'm currently booked in Q since round trip H class is like $2000....)
Or just cancel the ticket and book EVA instead (Cuz my company pays for my Y fare and booking a B fare is fairly cheap compared to other *A carriers)?? I really wanted to try out NH since my Plat is expiring next year and I still haven't had the chance to try PY nor J....
Any suggestions will be very welcomed, thanks!!
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Old Nov 23, 18, 5:06 pm
  #2  

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I would say the chances are very good Especially on LAX where NH with 3 daily departures (and UA and SQ flying as well) seems to have more capacity than they really need.

I am not sure if they ares stil cancelling some of the flights due to the 787 engine issues, and moving the 77W elsewhere to cover.
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Old Nov 23, 18, 7:01 pm
  #3  
 
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Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer View Post
I would say the chances are very good Especially on LAX where NH with 3 daily departures (and UA and SQ flying as well) seems to have more capacity than they really need.

I am not sure if they ares stil cancelling some of the flights due to the 787 engine issues, and moving the 77W elsewhere to cover.
NH cancelled the second LAX-NRT for the winter not sure if due to 787 or loads or a combination of the two so capacity isn't as high as it used to be (however with UA/SQ/2x NH/DL/JL/2x AA it's still plenty).

Also not sure how changeable OP's flights are but there is I space open on ORD-NRT for 12/3 (as well as on the LAX-ORD redeye on 12/2), but nothing on any of the ex-LAX nonstops yet.
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Old Dec 2, 18, 5:59 am
  #4  
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Join Date: Nov 2018
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Hi guys,

Turned out that I got cleared around 5 days befroe departure! Interestingly, I did not receive any notifications or such from my email.
Anyway, I'm really happy that they did pull me up!
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