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Does ANA get any cheaper than this?

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Old May 16, 2018, 12:20 am
  #1  
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Does ANA get any cheaper than this?

Sorry for the stupid thread.

I want to book a direct flight Tokyo - NYC for this Christmas season for me and my wife and I don't know if I should wait or book now.

Sorry, forgot to specify dates. It has to be Dec 22nd to Jan 5. Which is extra expensive... :/

It doesn't really need to be ANA, but considering I am staying in Brooklyn (and therefore JFK is my best option) and I am ANA Platinum, even if the ANA flight costs a little bit more than the JAL or United one I would happily pay the difference.

I was thinking of booking right now, but it is 177k yen for a basic economy super cheap fare ticket. United is a little bit cheaper, but since it arrives in Newark I can avoid it. Now, Hopper says these direct flights will get down as much as 144K yen per person, which would be really good.

What I am asking is, this price reduction that Hopper predicts could include ANA and/or JAL, or this is probably for United and therefore I should book ANA now before it gets more expensive?

Thank you experts!

Last edited by sodaisei; May 16, 2018 at 12:46 am
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Old May 16, 2018, 12:30 am
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I did a quick test with JAL, from Tokyo 19th, return to Tokyo 27th. That can be done for 262K for two at the moment. But I am sure if you want a return early Jan, that is already higher. So depending on your dates, I would say 177K per person is a bit pricey.
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Old May 16, 2018, 12:41 am
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Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer
I did a quick test with JAL, from Tokyo 19th, return to Tokyo 27th. That can be done for 262K for two at the moment. But I am sure if you want a return early Jan, that is already higher. So depending on your dates, I would say 177K per person is a bit pricey.
Sorry, forgot to specify dates. It has to be Dec 22nd to Jan 5. Which is extra expensive... :/
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Old May 16, 2018, 1:00 am
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You missed the boat on discount tickets. Try finding United Airlines codeshares in ANA metal. They are usually cheaper, but with a stopover in either LAX, SFO or ORD. You’ll end up in EWR, but the difference should cover the cab fare!
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Old May 16, 2018, 1:07 am
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Originally Posted by sodaisei
Sorry, forgot to specify dates. It has to be Dec 22nd to Jan 5. Which is extra expensive... :/
Jan 5 will be the killer... No option to fly a day later, that could probably help.
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Old May 16, 2018, 1:24 am
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Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer
Jan 5 will be the killer... No option to fly a day later, that could probably help.
I should have selected the 4th, now I regret it. But I already reserved my airbnb, and I cant change the dates. It is gonna be our honeymoon and considering how few holidays I get, we wanted to maximize our time there :/

Originally Posted by Tokyoite
You missed the boat on discount tickets. Try finding United Airlines codeshares in ANA metal. They are usually cheaper, but with a stopover in either LAX, SFO or ORD. You’ll end up in EWR, but the difference should cover the cab fare!
Yeah I thought about that, there are cheaper options with ORD layover but then I realized that flying December/Jan there are lots of probabilities of having flight disruptions due to weather conditions, so a direct flight seems like the safest way to make it there.

What bothers me is that Hopper is predicting a direct flight 30k cheaper per person, so I kind of assume that might be for United and that there is no way ANA (or JAL) direct flight those dates will get cheaper?
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Old May 16, 2018, 2:10 am
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Originally Posted by sodaisei
I should have selected the 4th, now I regret it. But I already reserved my airbnb, and I cant change the dates. It is gonna be our honeymoon and considering how few holidays I get, we wanted to maximize our time there :/



Yeah I thought about that, there are cheaper options with ORD layover but then I realized that flying December/Jan there are lots of probabilities of having flight disruptions due to weather conditions, so a direct flight seems like the safest way to make it there.

What bothers me is that Hopper is predicting a direct flight 30k cheaper per person, so I kind of assume that might be for United and that there is no way ANA (or JAL) direct flight those dates will get cheaper?
I doubt ANA and JAL will get lower prices for that period. As you well know it is a peak travel season in Japan. I wonder if a website like Hopper, takes that kind of seasonality under consideration? Or they just looks at current price and the time gap to travel date and predicts based on the on that.
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Old May 16, 2018, 2:24 am
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Originally Posted by CPH-Flyer
I doubt ANA and JAL will get lower prices for that period. As you well know it is a peak travel season in Japan. I wonder if a website like Hopper, takes that kind of seasonality under consideration? Or they just looks at current price and the time gap to travel date and predicts based on the on that.
I don't know how Hopper works, but I used it last year once to predict flights to Hawaii in a high season period and it predicted it successfully. But that time it was a Chinese carrier... I waited some months as the app recommended and suddenly one day prices went down as Hopper predicted. The problem is that they tell you to wait but don't tell you which airline they predict will get cheaper...
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Old May 16, 2018, 3:01 am
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Put your honeymoon schedule on the line by trusting an app!
That’s an interesting strategy.What’s your backup plan?

Last edited by Tokyoite; May 16, 2018 at 5:15 pm
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Old May 16, 2018, 3:05 am
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Another strategy is to depart from Seoul or Hong Kong. Cheaper than departuring from Tokyo, but you’ll need to do some positioning.
or, abandon ANA and chose another Asian *A carrier with direct flights to JFK (Asiana, Air China, Eva)
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Old May 16, 2018, 9:44 am
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Originally Posted by Tokyoite
Another strategy is to depart from Seoul or Hong Kong. Cheaper than departuring from Tokyo, but you’ll need to do some positioning.
or, abandon ANA and chose another Asian *A carrier with direct flights to JFK (Asiana, Air China, Eva)
15Dec NH862 GMP HND (S)
22Dec NH110 HND JFK (S)
05Jan NH109 JFK HND (S)
14Jan NH867 HND GMP (S)
164920JPY
(Basic Economy)
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Old May 16, 2018, 2:51 pm
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Do you feel lucky?
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Old May 16, 2018, 6:21 pm
  #13  
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Originally Posted by Tokyoite
Put your honeymoon schedule on the line by trusting an app!
That’s an interesting strategy.What’s your backup plan?
Pay a lot or do what you wrote below. Fly with a Chinese carrier and and let my marriage fail because of that

Originally Posted by Tokyoite
Another strategy is to depart from Seoul or Hong Kong. Cheaper than departuring from Tokyo, but you’ll need to do some positioning.
or, abandon ANA and chose another Asian *A carrier with direct flights to JFK (Asiana, Air China, Eva)
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Old May 17, 2018, 11:56 pm
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Originally Posted by sodaisei
Pay a lot or do what you wrote below. Fly with a Chinese carrier and and let my marriage fail because of that
Hi, nobody is suggesting your marriage would be in peril because you did not take the direct flight TYO-JFK.
I am merely pointing out that the financial sting of betting on an app that predicts a cheaper ticket might dampen an otherwise happy honeymoon occasion. If a few hundred dollars are a deal-breaker, then I suggest to find creative routes for cheap tickets, or connect in the US (ORD/SFO/LAX).
If a few hundred dollars are not a deal-breaker, then I suggest to buy the tickets now, lock down the trip dates, and focus instead on your activities between the direct flights!
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Old May 18, 2018, 12:19 am
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Originally Posted by sodaisei
I should have selected the 4th, now I regret it. But I already reserved my airbnb, and I cant change the dates. It is gonna be our honeymoon and considering how few holidays I get, we wanted to maximize our time there
Just advice for the future. It is better to lock down the flights before accommodation. You can always find alternative (cheaper) accommodation for specific flight dates, but rarely can you find alternative (cheaper) flight for specific hotel dates.
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