Southwest in Alaska (Frontier Bid)
#31
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: ANC, SAP
Programs: AS MVP Gold, Priority Pass
Posts: 1,863
They would be nuts to add SEA or OAK service for a couple of reasons...
1) AS has nearly HOURLY service to SEA. I think we've all seen on the other major West Coast route what happens. VX is struggling to make SEA-LAX work and the population is substantially larger. WN won't enter SEA-ANC for the same reason they haven't entered SEA-LAX: It's dominated by AS and it's a bloodbath to break in (just due to the shear schedule dominance).
2) While OAK makes sense since it is a focus city, the marketsize is very small and nearly non-existant in the Winter (that's why even AS doesn't do SFO year-round).
3) Their costs are now quickly catching up with the rest of us and the barn-burner fares probably wouldn't be so crazy to ANC. Keep in mind flying in the state of AK is also more expensive give Winter operating conditions, etc.
For those that DO think they'd save the day in AK, keep in mind AS does not exploit the AK customer. They charge a fare that generates a reasonable return. Something that is nearly impossible in some L48 markets. The result, huge double digit capacity reductions in the L48 to compensate. I'd be careful what you wish for. While there may be some 'Southwest Effect' on the fares and demand it won't be anything like a route in the L48. AS has done several price experiments in AK and the market is pretty inelastic. VERY hard to stimulate demand with a limited demand pool.
Just my 2 cents from someone on the Planning 'Front line'.
1) AS has nearly HOURLY service to SEA. I think we've all seen on the other major West Coast route what happens. VX is struggling to make SEA-LAX work and the population is substantially larger. WN won't enter SEA-ANC for the same reason they haven't entered SEA-LAX: It's dominated by AS and it's a bloodbath to break in (just due to the shear schedule dominance).
2) While OAK makes sense since it is a focus city, the marketsize is very small and nearly non-existant in the Winter (that's why even AS doesn't do SFO year-round).
3) Their costs are now quickly catching up with the rest of us and the barn-burner fares probably wouldn't be so crazy to ANC. Keep in mind flying in the state of AK is also more expensive give Winter operating conditions, etc.
For those that DO think they'd save the day in AK, keep in mind AS does not exploit the AK customer. They charge a fare that generates a reasonable return. Something that is nearly impossible in some L48 markets. The result, huge double digit capacity reductions in the L48 to compensate. I'd be careful what you wish for. While there may be some 'Southwest Effect' on the fares and demand it won't be anything like a route in the L48. AS has done several price experiments in AK and the market is pretty inelastic. VERY hard to stimulate demand with a limited demand pool.
Just my 2 cents from someone on the Planning 'Front line'.
your point 3 - I don't buy it. Is operating out of ANC that much more expensive than Chicago or MSP in the winter? Yet, you still can get reasonable deals out of ORD or MSP...but not out of ANC. Yes, it's probably more than LA, but...
As for the text I bolded...so, are you confirming what Alaskan's have been saying for years - that we pay a premium for our travel to subsidize your services up and down the west coast? Lets face it - you put your capacity where the demand and market exist for you to make a profit...and I personally don't think AS flys in and out of ANC and the rest of Alaska as a public service... And, btw...isn't that what Hawaiian and Aloha airlines said about Hawaii travel before the arrival of go! And isn't one of them out of business now...and airfares in Hawaii are STILL cheaper than before?
FACT - on Alaska Airlines right now, the lowest r/t fare to Seattle in the month of August is $500. You can travel SEA - ORD or SEA - DFW for about $300, or SEA - MSP for about $350. All of the routes are similar in length - so why the 50-60% markup on ANC - SEA? Competition. WN is welcome in ANC by this MVPG any day.
#32
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: ANC
Programs: Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 358
I''m always mystified why FTers bash WN when there are much worse airlines out there. I mean sure, I understand folks have a certain amount of loyalty to their hometown carrier, but just like a good sports team, some healthy competition is good for them. Folks in ANC frequently complain how they never get any sales, but AS isn't going to slash fares unless they have to. Even if you don't fly WN, you're still like to reap the benefits of them serving that market, just as SEA has with VX's entry.
#33
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SGF
Programs: AS, AA, UA, AGR S (former 75K, GLD, 1K, and S+, now an elite peon)
Posts: 23,194
While I must admit I enjoy F upgrades with status, and the other nice services AS provides, I have to say that I love to travel and flying is simply a means to that end (I don't simply fly to be in the air...). I prefer a more upscale experience...but would trade it ANY day for the ability to be able to afford to travel more. Just like I'll stay in the Holiday Inn instead of the Hyatt if the Holiday Inn saves me money that I can spend on activities in the place I'm visiting. I'm being careful what I'm wishing for...and I'm wishing for affordable airfare out of Anchorage. I don't think I'm alone here.
FACT - on Alaska Airlines right now, the lowest r/t fare to Seattle in the month of August is $500. You can travel SEA - ORD or SEA - DFW for about $300, or SEA - MSP for about $350. All of the routes are similar in length - so why the 50-60% markup on ANC - SEA? Competition. WN is welcome in ANC by this MVPG any day.
FACT - on Alaska Airlines right now, the lowest r/t fare to Seattle in the month of August is $500. You can travel SEA - ORD or SEA - DFW for about $300, or SEA - MSP for about $350. All of the routes are similar in length - so why the 50-60% markup on ANC - SEA? Competition. WN is welcome in ANC by this MVPG any day.
For those that DO think they'd save the day in AK, keep in mind AS does not exploit the AK customer. They charge a fare that generates a reasonable return. Something that is nearly impossible in some L48 markets. The result, huge double digit capacity reductions in the L48 to compensate. I'd be careful what you wish for. While there may be some 'Southwest Effect' on the fares and demand it won't be anything like a route in the L48. AS has done several price experiments in AK and the market is pretty inelastic. VERY hard to stimulate demand with a limited demand pool.
Just my 2 cents from someone on the Planning 'Front line'.
Just my 2 cents from someone on the Planning 'Front line'.
But let me run this by you. What do you think a reasonable rental car daily rate (say, for a typical midsize car) is? When renting for personal reasons (say, your vacation), what kind of a rate would you like to pay, and at what point would you start looking for alternate arrangements? $10 per day? $30 per day? $50 per day? $100 per day?
I'll wait for your answer before continuing this train of thought.
#34
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend, Moderator, Information Desk, Ambassador, Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: FAI
Programs: AS MVP Gold100K, AS 1MM, Maika`i Card, AGR, HH Gold, Hertz PC, Marriott Titanium LTG, CO, 7H, BA, 8E
Posts: 42,953
Wirelessly posted (BlackBerry9000/4.6.0.167 Profile/MIDP-2.0 Configuration/CLDC-1.1 VendorID/102)
You're not alone there.
Because of the nature of my work, I understand completely about wanting to charge a fare that offers a reasonable return and not being able to do that in many markets.
But let me run this by you. What do you think a reasonable rental car daily rate (say, for a typical midsize car) is? When renting for personal reasons (say, your vacation), what kind of a rate would you like to pay, and at what point would you start looking for alternate arrangements? $10 per day? $30 per day? $50 per day? $100 per day?
I'll wait for your answer before continuing this train of thought.
If it includes everything (under 21 fee & additional driver fees) $30 (AI)/day...
Originally Posted by jackal
While I must admit I enjoy F upgrades with status, and the other nice services AS provides, I have to say that I love to travel and flying is simply a means to that end (I don't simply fly to be in the air...). I prefer a more upscale experience...but would trade it ANY day for the ability to be able to afford to travel more. Just like I'll stay in the Holiday Inn instead of the Hyatt if the Holiday Inn saves me money that I can spend on activities in the place I'm visiting. I'm being careful what I'm wishing for...and I'm wishing for affordable airfare out of Anchorage. I don't think I'm alone here.
FACT - on Alaska Airlines right now, the lowest r/t fare to Seattle in the month of August is $500. You can travel SEA - ORD or SEA - DFW for about $300, or SEA - MSP for about $350. All of the routes are similar in length - so why the 50-60% markup on ANC - SEA? Competition. WN is welcome in ANC by this MVPG any day.
FACT - on Alaska Airlines right now, the lowest r/t fare to Seattle in the month of August is $500. You can travel SEA - ORD or SEA - DFW for about $300, or SEA - MSP for about $350. All of the routes are similar in length - so why the 50-60% markup on ANC - SEA? Competition. WN is welcome in ANC by this MVPG any day.
For those that DO think they'd save the day in AK, keep in mind AS does not exploit the AK customer. They charge a fare that generates a reasonable return. Something that is nearly impossible in some L48 markets. The result, huge double digit capacity reductions in the L48 to compensate. I'd be careful what you wish for. While there may be some 'Southwest Effect' on the fares and demand it won't be anything like a route in the L48. AS has done several price experiments in AK and the market is pretty inelastic. VERY hard to stimulate demand with a limited demand pool.
Just my 2 cents from someone on the Planning 'Front line'.
Just my 2 cents from someone on the Planning 'Front line'.
But let me run this by you. What do you think a reasonable rental car daily rate (say, for a typical midsize car) is? When renting for personal reasons (say, your vacation), what kind of a rate would you like to pay, and at what point would you start looking for alternate arrangements? $10 per day? $30 per day? $50 per day? $100 per day?
I'll wait for your answer before continuing this train of thought.
#35
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SGF
Programs: AS, AA, UA, AGR S (former 75K, GLD, 1K, and S+, now an elite peon)
Posts: 23,194
#36
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Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Bay Area, CA
Programs: UA Plat 2MM; AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 35,068
Underage fee = they have insurance, if the car is wrecked, insurance covers it. So not a concern there.
Add'l driver fee = same issue, how is the cost any higher to the agency if a second person drives the vehicle? If anything, if you're on a road trip and share the driving, it's probably safer.
As long as companies are going to charge junk fees that have no relevance to actual costs, customers can also expect crazy discounts that have no relationship to the costs of providing the service.
#37
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SGF
Programs: AS, AA, UA, AGR S (former 75K, GLD, 1K, and S+, now an elite peon)
Posts: 23,194
Those are both just junk fees anyway.
Underage fee = they have insurance, if the car is wrecked, insurance covers it. So not a concern there.
Add'l driver fee = same issue, how is the cost any higher to the agency if a second person drives the vehicle? If anything, if you're on a road trip and share the driving, it's probably safer.
As long as companies are going to charge junk fees that have no relevance to actual costs, customers can also expect crazy discounts that have no relationship to the costs of providing the service.
Underage fee = they have insurance, if the car is wrecked, insurance covers it. So not a concern there.
Add'l driver fee = same issue, how is the cost any higher to the agency if a second person drives the vehicle? If anything, if you're on a road trip and share the driving, it's probably safer.
As long as companies are going to charge junk fees that have no relevance to actual costs, customers can also expect crazy discounts that have no relationship to the costs of providing the service.
Additional drivers: statistically, vehicles get driven a LOT more when multiple drivers are on the contract. And since very, very few agencies can get away with charging for mileage anymore (due to intense competition), this is a way to pay for the additional diminished resale value (or lease over-mileage charges) caused by higher mileage.
#38
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: SEA, SoCal
Programs: AS 75K, DL Plat, AA, WN, Hertz, HHonors, Marriott
Posts: 1,306
You're not alone there.
But let me run this by you. What do you think a reasonable rental car daily rate (say, for a typical midsize car) is? When renting for personal reasons (say, your vacation), what kind of a rate would you like to pay, and at what point would you start looking for alternate arrangements? $10 per day? $30 per day? $50 per day? $100 per day?
I'll wait for your answer before continuing this train of thought.
But let me run this by you. What do you think a reasonable rental car daily rate (say, for a typical midsize car) is? When renting for personal reasons (say, your vacation), what kind of a rate would you like to pay, and at what point would you start looking for alternate arrangements? $10 per day? $30 per day? $50 per day? $100 per day?
I'll wait for your answer before continuing this train of thought.
$30/day weekend, $45/day weekday. Anything over that and I start shopping around and/or contemplating Priceline. Zipcar, who I use a lot in SFO, CHI, and BOS charges around $70/day, but it includes gas and insurance.
#39
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Programs: AA Gold AAdvantage Elite, Rapids Reward
Posts: 38,324
Won't happen. Frontier's ANC service is seasonal. WN doesn't "do" seasonal. Additionally one of Frontier's ANC-DEN flights is a red-eye. WN doesn't "do" red-eyes. IIRC AS had a DEN-ANC non-stop which didn't last long. If WN were to serve ANC from which airport would it be? Most likely not SEA or PDX. LAS perhaps? AS also has seasonal ANC-LAS non-stops which didn't work out either. MDW-ANC perhaps? Nah...it's just not gonna happen.
#40
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Programs: CO OnePass Platinum AS MVP HHonors Diamond SPG Gold
Posts: 2,417
I didn't realize know that for ANC-LAS has been discontinuation. What is more specific info about AS wasn't doing very well. How is PHX-ANC nonstop doing? How is the loaded out of PHX-ANC lately? I would assume it will becoming year-round long for PHX-ANC instead of summer seasonal.
#41
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Programs: HH Gold, AA Gold
Posts: 10,458
Fleet commonality is a big part of keeping WN's cost structure low. I just don't see them with a sub-fleet of Airbus and a separate pilot base to fly them. I think the first thing they'll do is shed the Airbus fleet.
As for international destinations I highly doubt they'll continue those either. If WN wanted to fly to Canada, Mexico or Central America they would have done so years ago.
As for international destinations I highly doubt they'll continue those either. If WN wanted to fly to Canada, Mexico or Central America they would have done so years ago.
As for international destinations, it has been a limitation of their computer reservation system. They will not have the capability to fare international itineraries (complex taxes and fees) until their current system upgrade is complete. That being said, they could have done an upgrade earlier if they had wanted to fly international. In addition, they have stated intentions to -- at least -- codeshare with international carriers.
#42
Formerly known as I_Hate_US_Airways
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Just South Of North
Programs: My Loyalty Programs? I now VOTE with my wallet!!!
Posts: 2,568
Ouch!
If Southwest successfully buys Frontier out of bankruptcy, Southwest might finally have an Alaska presence. It would be nice to see some downward pressure on the AS fares.
http://www.smartertravel.com/blogs/t...0&u=SL9A22DE21
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....451&highlight=
http://www.smartertravel.com/blogs/t...0&u=SL9A22DE21
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....451&highlight=
Elite Status Is Not A Matter of Life Or Death, it’s Much More Important Than That!
#43
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: SEA, SoCal
Programs: AS 75K, DL Plat, AA, WN, Hertz, HHonors, Marriott
Posts: 1,306
Couldn't even imagine (and don't want to either) think about being on Cattle Car Airlines for a flight that is 5:37. I'll fly WN on flights of >1 hour if there's no alturnative. More than 1 hour, "fo ge about id"...
Elite Status Is Not A Matter of Life Or Death, it’s Much More Important Than That!
Elite Status Is Not A Matter of Life Or Death, it’s Much More Important Than That!
In my experience the MVPG boarding call on most transcons is the true cattle call. My favorite example is a flight to ORD. As an MVPG I rarely get the upgrade, but if I don't join the initial stampede I end up having to stow my bag somewhere aft of the exit row. On WN, all I have to do is check in at the 24 hour mark and I'm usually amongst the first 20 pax to board, which takes place in an orderly single file line.
Once on board I usually score my coveted 4F or 5F, stretch out my 6' frame, and marvel at the extra inch of shin/knee clearance. When snack-time arrives it's all Nabisco products, but hey, they're free and you can have as much as you can scarf down. Whenever I use a complimentary drink coupon, one of them is usually good for seconds and thirds, and as a result I have a drawer full of them.
I really think that people who have this negative image of WN must not have flown with them very much, because IMO they invented the whole idea of North of Expected. They under-promise, over-deliver, and in the end you get off the plane not feeling like chattel, but like a valued customer who hasn't been taken for granted.
#44
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Sea-Tac, WA
Posts: 854
1 - I agree...it would be tough. As you point, out - AS essentially has a monopoly on ANC - SEA travel (on all AK travel for that matter). It would be a tough market to break into, and it probably wouldn't work, because Alaska would play HUGE fare wars like they have any other time they've had competition (when CO and UA both did ANC-SEA we always had $99 fares to SEA...now SEA to west coast is super cheap to compete with VX). I, for one, would LOVE it if they'd try, because at least we'd enjoy a few months of reasonable fares.
your point 3 - I don't buy it. Is operating out of ANC that much more expensive than Chicago or MSP in the winter? Yet, you still can get reasonable deals out of ORD or MSP...but not out of ANC. Yes, it's probably more than LA, but...
As for the text I bolded...so, are you confirming what Alaskan's have been saying for years - that we pay a premium for our travel to subsidize your services up and down the west coast? Lets face it - you put your capacity where the demand and market exist for you to make a profit...and I personally don't think AS flys in and out of ANC and the rest of Alaska as a public service... And, btw...isn't that what Hawaiian and Aloha airlines said about Hawaii travel before the arrival of go! And isn't one of them out of business now...and airfares in Hawaii are STILL cheaper than before?
While I must admit I enjoy F upgrades with status, and the other nice services AS provides, I have to say that I love to travel and flying is simply a means to that end (I don't simply fly to be in the air...). I prefer a more upscale experience...but would trade it ANY day for the ability to be able to afford to travel more. Just like I'll stay in the Holiday Inn instead of the Hyatt if the Holiday Inn saves me money that I can spend on activities in the place I'm visiting. I'm being careful what I'm wishing for...and I'm wishing for affordable airfare out of Anchorage. I don't think I'm alone here.
FACT - on Alaska Airlines right now, the lowest r/t fare to Seattle in the month of August is $500. You can travel SEA - ORD or SEA - DFW for about $300, or SEA - MSP for about $350. All of the routes are similar in length - so why the 50-60% markup on ANC - SEA? Competition. WN is welcome in ANC by this MVPG any day.
your point 3 - I don't buy it. Is operating out of ANC that much more expensive than Chicago or MSP in the winter? Yet, you still can get reasonable deals out of ORD or MSP...but not out of ANC. Yes, it's probably more than LA, but...
As for the text I bolded...so, are you confirming what Alaskan's have been saying for years - that we pay a premium for our travel to subsidize your services up and down the west coast? Lets face it - you put your capacity where the demand and market exist for you to make a profit...and I personally don't think AS flys in and out of ANC and the rest of Alaska as a public service... And, btw...isn't that what Hawaiian and Aloha airlines said about Hawaii travel before the arrival of go! And isn't one of them out of business now...and airfares in Hawaii are STILL cheaper than before?
While I must admit I enjoy F upgrades with status, and the other nice services AS provides, I have to say that I love to travel and flying is simply a means to that end (I don't simply fly to be in the air...). I prefer a more upscale experience...but would trade it ANY day for the ability to be able to afford to travel more. Just like I'll stay in the Holiday Inn instead of the Hyatt if the Holiday Inn saves me money that I can spend on activities in the place I'm visiting. I'm being careful what I'm wishing for...and I'm wishing for affordable airfare out of Anchorage. I don't think I'm alone here.
FACT - on Alaska Airlines right now, the lowest r/t fare to Seattle in the month of August is $500. You can travel SEA - ORD or SEA - DFW for about $300, or SEA - MSP for about $350. All of the routes are similar in length - so why the 50-60% markup on ANC - SEA? Competition. WN is welcome in ANC by this MVPG any day.
In terms of cost, yes, look at the number of flights we operate from ANC in the winter to all the places and the cost of operations with deicing, diversions, etc., is much higher than say our operation at ORD with 3-4 flights a day.
Also factor in the steep drop in demand that comes at the end of Sept and you can see why fares are high in the summer when the planes are packed to the gills....you need something to float you through January when the flights are a ghost town.
#45
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Alaska
Programs: Alaska MVPG
Posts: 265
Elites so often forget what it's like to be common people...
In my experience the MVPG boarding call on most transcons is the true cattle call. My favorite example is a flight to ORD. As an MVPG I rarely get the upgrade, but if I don't join the initial stampede I end up having to stow my bag somewhere aft of the exit row. On WN, all I have to do is check in at the 24 hour mark and I'm usually amongst the first 20 pax to board, which takes place in an orderly single file line.
Once on board I usually score my coveted 4F or 5F, stretch out my 6' frame, and marvel at the extra inch of shin/knee clearance. When snack-time arrives it's all Nabisco products, but hey, they're free and you can have as much as you can scarf down. Whenever I use a complimentary drink coupon, one of them is usually good for seconds and thirds, and as a result I have a drawer full of them.
I really think that people who have this negative image of WN must not have flown with them very much, because IMO they invented the whole idea of North of Expected. They under-promise, over-deliver, and in the end you get off the plane not feeling like chattel, but like a valued customer who hasn't been taken for granted.
In my experience the MVPG boarding call on most transcons is the true cattle call. My favorite example is a flight to ORD. As an MVPG I rarely get the upgrade, but if I don't join the initial stampede I end up having to stow my bag somewhere aft of the exit row. On WN, all I have to do is check in at the 24 hour mark and I'm usually amongst the first 20 pax to board, which takes place in an orderly single file line.
Once on board I usually score my coveted 4F or 5F, stretch out my 6' frame, and marvel at the extra inch of shin/knee clearance. When snack-time arrives it's all Nabisco products, but hey, they're free and you can have as much as you can scarf down. Whenever I use a complimentary drink coupon, one of them is usually good for seconds and thirds, and as a result I have a drawer full of them.
I really think that people who have this negative image of WN must not have flown with them very much, because IMO they invented the whole idea of North of Expected. They under-promise, over-deliver, and in the end you get off the plane not feeling like chattel, but like a valued customer who hasn't been taken for granted.
Wife and I flew Southwest a few years ago and actually enjoyed the experience. Flight attendants were upbeat and very personable and seemed to like what they do. Certainly better than service we've received on Northwest, United or Delta.
I'm not particularly fond of their boarding system but the in-flight experience was quite professional and enjoyable. Alaska Airlines remains my carrier of preference but Southwest is not as bad as some say they are.