ucdtim17

More competition incoming https://www.seattletimes.com/busines...s-paine-field/

I would guess something like 3x OAK, 2X DEN

tatterdema

I am thinking LAS, hitting AS head on.

ucdtim17

eponymous_coward

ucdtim17

Indeed. Probably going to continue to use OAK as primary connector to Socal.

eponymous_coward

I would say so... some split between OAK/DEN/LAS/PHX is probably about right. All have SEA service, WN is strong at all four airports (so boatloads of connecting opportunities), siphoning off some traffic from SEA to those places wouldn't kill them (and could mean they could use some SEA space for other things).

What has shocked me is that at least one of NK, F9 or G4 haven't shown up at PAE. I would have thought PAE is PERFECT for some sub-daily frequencies to vacation spots on an LCC. G4 seems to survive at BLI...

tatterdema

G4 was one of the original players pushing for PAE. I was surprised also that they bowed out. I used to drive to BLI to fly them, but their pricing has gone up to where it is not worth my while anymore.

sdsearch

Allegiant (G4) was probably pushing for it when they thought it would be a small airport that none of the biggies would want much. When AS and UA and WN (Southwest) went for it, that evaporated their dream of it only being a secondary airport left to secondary airlines.

Toshbaf

I think AS originally was going to start out slow at PAE but realized other airlines were coming. Since there are only 2 gates, it wanted to squeeze out the others, like Southwest does at Dallas Love Field. That's why they increased their plans from 8 flights to 13. They figured that 13 + UA's 6 = 19, which is just under the 22 flight limit. Southwest, not wanting only 3 flights is trying to challenge the 22 flight limit by planning 5 flights. If allowed, it can do it. If not allowed and there is no lottery, WN may not settle for 3 flights and leave.

Soon we shall see if DL agrees to be shut out or tries to play hardball by announcing 10 flights. If they do, the city will have to decide if it will shut out the later airlines or have slots, like LGA, or lottery, or reduce everyone's request (such as 8 to AS, 5 to UA, 4 to WN, 5 to DL).

I can't guess the end result but I think eventually AS will have all 737-900/900ER at PAE and will optimize profitability. Whatever route generates the highest yields will get service. Maybe we'll see ORD-1, PHX-1, ANC-1, EWR-1, LAX-2, SFO-2, PDX-2, SJC-1, SAN-1, SNA-1. Maybe LAS will be dropped despite sufficient traffic.

selkirks

There is no statutory gate/slot/departure limit at PAE, and there's no mandatory curfew. There's a voluntary noise abatement program from 9pm - 7am and runway restrictions on the same daily schedule. Passenger commercial service is an allowable use per ordinance, and airports are "common carriers" legally barred from discriminating against users under federal law. So if demand warrants, Propeller Airports can certainly go back to Snohomish County and request to amend its groundlease to allow for additional gates. The only limitations are political will and how quickly they can turn a shovel.

beckoa

Thanks for the link.

This may just get interesting, with all the carriers interested now.

greybeardy

A delay in flights from PAE. According to an article in today's Everett Herald (June 1) the FAA is reopening the environmental process because of the increased number of flights planned from PAE.

missamo80

Link to the article. Good grief.

eponymous_coward

So sounds like we'll be doing well if those flights start in anytime in 2019, since it is a lead-pipe cinch that the city of Mukilteo, etc. are going to drag this out as long as they can.

SNAnghbr

So that may explain why there was a station manager for PAE on the Mcgee air service job postings that lasted for only a couple of hours about a month ago.