[Speculation] Future AS Mergers/Growth

Old Nov 21, 2022, 2:38 pm
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[Speculation] Future AS Mergers/Growth

With JetBlue poised to swallow Spirit, what are everyone’s thoughts on Alaska’s future growth/merger potential with other airlines? With the previous Virgin’s fleet on the way out, do you see another airline with an Airbus fleet as a non-starter for merger? I’m interested in thoughts and discussion on AS’ long term growth and response to B6’s pending merger.

Personally, I’d like to see AS in discussion with Sun Country. They’re small, but are a Boeing fleet, and would help AS strengthen its Midwest presence.
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 2:43 pm
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Originally Posted by imaflyertalkuserwow
Personally, I’d like to see AS in discussion with Sun Country. They’re small, but are a Boeing fleet, and would help AS strengthen its Midwest presence.
Those are old planes by AS standards, but I like the idea of a midwestern expansion.
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 2:53 pm
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Originally Posted by RAD_PDX
Those are old planes by AS standards, but I like the idea of a midwestern expansion.
My main thought was fleet alignment. That seems to have been a bumpy and lengthy process, so I thought AS might aim to avoid that if merger/acquisition was on the table in the future. An interior retrofit would be needed since SY is a single cabin carrier, but I imagine that’s minor compared to the need for Airbus pilots, maintenance, etc.
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 3:09 pm
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To make a Sun Country merger work well (for the routes) you would need to have MSP as a new hub, with SAN/LAX/SFO/PDX/SEA flights several times a day. That seems like a significant investment for what are a list of B-tier cities. In fact, it seems like a much closer match for Horizon to absorb these routes.
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 3:15 pm
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The B6/NK merger faces some regulatory hurdles, it's not a done deal. I once asked the CFO at Alaska if they'd buy sun country and he said I don't want a bunch of used 737s, if I wanted planes, I'd pick up the phone and call boeing.
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 3:24 pm
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Originally Posted by StevenSeagalFan
The B6/NK merger faces some regulatory hurdles, it's not a done deal. I once asked the CFO at Alaska if they'd buy sun country and he said I don't want a bunch of used 737s, if I wanted planes, I'd pick up the phone and call boeing.
Which is exactly what they just did with their 90 ship MAX order. So if the aircraft are not enticing, and I can't imagine any of SY's network is gate constrained (AS is #7 at MSP by passenger volume), what do they get with an acquisition?
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 3:43 pm
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Weren't there rumors at one point of an STL hub? I'd be in favor if for no other reason than it would force a new route from the CA hubs
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 4:03 pm
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From earlier this year when JetBlue/Spirit merger started being discussed:
[Speculation] Does AS Need Another Merger to Counter JetBlue & Spirit Combo?
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/alaska-airlines-mileage-plan/2068033-speculation-spirit-frontier-merger-effects.html
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 4:19 pm
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There are no logical partners left. AS has to grow on its own or just stay a small regional carrier and keep hoping that competitors are not that interested in the routes they serve.
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 4:48 pm
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Thank you. Mods, feel free to delete/combine
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 6:16 pm
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Is it even needed with AA being such a good partner? Now if they raise the elite thresholds back to 2019 where you need much more BIS if flying AA that changes things for me. Having said that, I do realize DL WAS a good partner, and look how that one ended.

Sun country is primarily a leisure carrier only from MSP, and also a large chunk of their business is charter, such as flying all the MLS soccer teams. In fact, Cranky Flier had a great article on Sun Country just today. https://crankyflier.com/2022/11/21/s...-growth-plans/
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 6:24 pm
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Viva Mexico?

How about AS swallowing up AeroMexico? It’s the only Mexican airline with an all Boeing fleet. Mexico is geographically the right market to move into. Let’s go for it!
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 6:28 pm
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Originally Posted by AKLifetimeFlyer
How about AS swallowing up AeroMexico? It’s the only Mexican airline with an all Boeing fleet. Mexico is geographically the right market to move into. Let’s go for it!
Oh yah, get into bed with the 20% that DL owns
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 6:46 pm
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Would like to see ORD with or without AA as “hub” for more frequency and alternative routes throughout the Midwest and east coast from SEA, PDX, LAX and Bay Area.
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Old Nov 21, 2022, 7:33 pm
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Originally Posted by imaflyertalkuserwow
With JetBlue poised to swallow Spirit, what are everyone’s thoughts on Alaska’s future growth/merger potential with other airlines?
They spent almost 30 years not merging with anyone between QX/SI and VX, they can go right ahead and do that again.

They could spend the next decade+ adding service back and more in CA and still not be done with it. Build back PDX. I would imagine the MAX planes make some sub-daily GEG/BOI service to Hawaii logical once they get enough of them.

Originally Posted by sfozrhfco
There are no logical partners left. AS has to grow on its own or just stay a small regional carrier and keep hoping that competitors are not that interested in the routes they serve.
Frankly DL hasn't gotten anywhere in dislodging AS from SEA. They've taken market share from others, but not really AS. AA isn't going to do it because duh, partner. WN tried and failed, badly. UA got evicted from SEA largely because of AS in the first place. So who's doing it?

Originally Posted by ItsAnAdam
Weren't there rumors at one point of an STL hub? I'd be in favor if for no other reason than it would force a new route from the CA hubs
Sounds about as solid as the rumors of LIT-NRT service by AA. Hourly shuttles on A380s.

Originally Posted by Xrayman
Would like to see ORD with or without AA as “hub” for more frequency and alternative routes throughout the Midwest and east coast from SEA, PDX, LAX and Bay Area.
Right, because AS couldn't make a lot of ex-VX routes work out of SFO, the only logical answer is to go into ANOTHER market UA can squish them like a bug in with frequency and service, with the bonus that it will make their OW partner AA extra mad as well, and the cherry on top being that service from SEA/PDX/etc. is way less useful in helping them as opposed to SFO/LAX/California and the West Coast in general.
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Last edited by eponymous_coward; Nov 21, 2022 at 7:40 pm
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