sfozrhfco

AS has some unique challenges.

1. They inherited a lot of CA based A320 family pilots. That fleet type is going away and will there be any bases outside of SEA? There are plenty of other options for any pilots that don't want to be in SEA.

2. Their regional model is in trouble. Will they even be able to staff their Q400 flights for the whole period they plan to keep them now that everybody knows they need to move to another plane type? Why not jump ship all together? AS is just not growing all the quickly and has largely stagnated for years now. Is it even worth it to keep QX around with only 30-39 aircraft?

3. They don't have any clear growth plan.

4. If the B6 purchase of NK goes through, the new carrier provides big growth opportunities to Airbus trained pilots and a much bigger competitor twice the fleet size of AS

Why would people stay with AS unless they are very senior or specifically like being in SEA? This is exactly what the pilots are arguing. They get more job security and a better quality of life elsewhere and wouldn't live under the threat that their jobs could be outsourced at any time to another carrier due to the lack of scope clause/limits on outsourcing.

As a small, mostly regional carrier that only has very limited flights in most markets, it is going to be very challenging to run the airline and for customers to have any trust if their schedule is up in the air every day. Their passenger base is largely centered in SEA/Alaska and to some extent PDX. Outside of those markets there are plenty of other options for passengers to take. Why would you take a chance on a carrier with one or two flights in day in many markets when you could be on a carrier far more likely to get you to your destination and way more robust schedules?

Visconti

Yeah, I'm certainly one of those.

For us in SFO, it's a whole different game, and that's where I think OW and AA's partnership are very meaningful. For me, they take care of my OWE, LAS, JFK and now MIA with AA's partnership, I couldn't care less where they sprinkle their twinkie fleet to, just not on my routes. One of the reasons why I avoid AA to LAX is because of that stupid Eagle's Nest third world-like terminal, which I absolutely hate. I'm hoping that eventually, AS will return the mainline jets for the SFO - LAX route too.

As to the rest, while it's interesting to read, it's background noise that I'll forget about next week.

Tack

Too many of your opinions to try to answer. The bottom line is outside of maybe DL? AS has been one of the most well run and profitable airlines in the US. In terms of managing debt? They devoured VX at a huge cost and hardly burped with most of that debt retired. In terms of brand loyalty? They cultivate new customers and keep current customers even when they wad up a jet in the pacific because they wanted to cut costs. In terms of employee candidates, there is a steady stream at their door step. (You can’t view the pilot shortage as anything more than drivers looking for the most dough, and at some point even cheap ‘ol Chester will have to drop some coin to fix that.) They’re savage at what they do. And everything they do is calculated. Everything. To the point I punched early after 36 years because they’re exhausting. We all get you just don’t like them. I’m with you on that. I had stopped liking them when I left. But frankly, being a customer and not ever experiencing how they operate internally, you'll never understand how they look at and run their successful airline business.

seacarl

That may be an accurate assessment of the situation. And if it is, then this may well drag out for some time because it is kind of a stalemate and a question of who blinks first. The pilots have more leverage than they have had at any time since Covid and maybe even pre-Covid given that all the carriers are facing pilot shortages and robust demand. I do agree that AS has benefited from their labor contracts such that they have lower costs than AA DL UA and WN. That is what is letting them compete successfully against WN and DL - AS can afford to discount fares to fill the planes because they have a cost advantage. And the cost advantage isn't due to materially lower pay rates but due to work rules. AS is incented to fight to keep that advantage because without the cost advantage, they aren't relevant in many markets particularly the California markets where they are clearly behind WN, UA in relevance and loyalty, and in SoCal they are mainly a niche player. So price it is. And when it's over price will win back customers, together with a reputation for a good experience. Neither the pilots nor the company have incentive to give up very much.

Agreed that AS doesn't have much advantage to attract pilots who don't want to be based in SEA, PDX or ANC.
The regional model may be in trouble for all airlines. Yes the regionals are strategically important to offer efficient 76-seat flying. Not sure how this spins out. The other airlines are investing in regionals to ensure a supply of pilots for mainline, beyond that I don't see a strategic reason for AS to own QX.
I don't claim to understand the growth plan beyond growing SEA and PDX as much as they can. The offerings at SFO SJC LAX SAN seem to be throw things at the wall and see what sticks. The cost advantage that I mentioned above seems to be critical to AS staying (semi) relevant in CA. AS has stated "depth over breadth" as their plan. That means more frequencies in existing markets. Of course they cannot realize that without pilots.
An A320 pilot can already find employment with AA DL & UA. Not sure that this merger really changes the equation. A320 pilots either need to migrate to B737 if they want to stay with AS longer term or else find an Airbus operator.
It's a bit of a stretch for the pilots to be making this self-serving argument. If AS needs to improve work conditions to retain pilots, then they will do that. The reason that the pilots want to make this argument is that they want the better conditions without losing their seniority positions. If they leave AS and join another carrier at the bottom of the seniority list, then they have not improved their quality of life and have to start over with crappy schedules.
Right now passengers are collateral damage. And if we don't care about loyalty status we should book away from AS. But passengers do tend to have short memories, and you can win them back with price. At least that is probably what management thinks.

It kind of sucks to be living with this. We don't know what is happening in the negotiating room. Let's hope that cooler heads can find a middle ground.

maradori

Oof what a great way to wake up - I guarantee you, waking up to a "your flight has been cancelled" text really gets the adrenaline pumping. No need for morning coffee

Was hoping to not be affected but alas, SEA-AUS tonight got cancelled. I was super duper lucky that I got a phone agent within 3 rings and got rebooked. Even though I'm arriving 9 hours later, arriving at 2PM instead of 5AM ain't too bad

I usually have a rule of preferring mainline over the regionals but in this operational meltdown case, I am grateful for the regionals - my rebooked SFO-LAX-AUS has both legs on SkyWest so hopefully the mainline issues won't affect my new flight

seacarl

How did you manage that? Any tricks to know? Special number? Don't enter mileage plan? I had a 7-9 hour hold time quoted the last time I called... on Sunday

sltlyamusd

Agreed, but the main problem for AS is that DL is the primary competition in SEA, and DL has a great product and is generally very reliable. AS still has a larger domestic network out of SEA, but when you have had three meltdowns in the past 15 months (Feb 2021 snowstorm, late Dec/early Jan, and the current one), that might be enough for some customers to jump ship to DL and never look back.

rcarr

I know these cancellations have been a nightmare for lots of folk, but I have to say it's been a great way to pile up EQM's and RDM's on MR's that I haven't actually had to fly! 3 SEA transcons booked inn the last 5 days cancelled and a call to customer care credited the miles as if flown. Booked a few more that look like they may not go over the next two days. And if they do, I cancel myself before takeoff. Anyone else taking advantage of this??

seacarl

Other than the AS meltdowns, AS has been much more reliable than DL in SEA. DL has a lot more RJs on routes that AS flies as mainline, and the DL RJ operation has not been reliable. DL has had their own meltdowns, and DL has more weather-prone hubs as well which can flow disruptions into their network. DL has a fine product, but they have not established any track record in SEA that is more reliable.

seacarl

Seriously? I had no idea that they would award EQMs and RDMs on cancelled flights.

sltlyamusd

Fair point. And DL has had meltdowns too—not sure any carrier had been unscathed over the past two years very difficult operational environment.

pinniped

I still feel like the worst two have been WN and AA - with very public and broad sickouts and other meltdowns on multiple occasions.

And then there's United, which sent all of its MP members a slightly-braggy email about how they are unique with their labor peace and vaccination compliance....and then two months later had a meltdown of their own.

No one has been immune.

notquiteaff

Huh? Did you get a refund *and* the miles? Or did you tell them to keep the cash and just credit you with the miles as if you had flown?

rcarr

yes refund plus miles but had to call and request it. Although l am thinking now I probably should have kept it quiet!! It prob won’t happen again now!!

williwaw

Just called in on the Gold line and quoted a "over ten hour" wait.