Visconti

While only speaking for myself, it appears to be a "no-lose" deal for me too.

However, this is one of those deals where one would have to be very discerning and do some legwork on the relative valuation of the price vs. value. For instance, the only route I know very well is SFO - LAS and it's here where, at least right now, I don't see how I could lose on a 6 flight deal over the span of the next 12 months--probably wouldn't even lose on a 12 flight package. Several years ago when oil prices were relatively low and B6 still in the market, you'd often see sale prices from SFO - LAS at around $19 - $25 fairly routinely. During the pandemic, with F9 taking over B6's prior disruptor role, flights were routinely around $15 and topping out at around $49.

So, now it seems leisure travel will supplant business travel over the next 6 - 12 months as the main driver to the LAS markets and with convention business predicted to recover next quarter as pandemic restrictions are relaxed in Vegas along with rising oil prices, it's, in my view, a pretty safe bet that the SFO - LAS pricing can only increase. With that onerous elite tax here to stay, at least in the foreseeable future, and the 24 seg requirement, this deal can range from good to great for some portion of the AS elites who fly frequently on these CA routes.

No idea what will happen after the initial 12 months, but with this route--SFO - LAS/LAX--I'd bet the prices go up, which I have by subscribing. Assuming there isn't a super-duper deadly variant triggering complete scrambling back into the confines of our crates again, I'll easily meet the 100K mileage thresholds with partners, but need some help with the 24 segments--this nicely and neatly takes care of all of the above.

Am I missing anything? From my analysis, those in or similar to my situation, it appears to be a no brainer for the next 12 months.

isaacchambers

The more accurate term is "peninsula and south bay" travelers would benefit. (i.e. SFO/SJC)

vanillabean

What happened to Marin?

isaacchambers

This flight pass should be SIMPLE.

This whole 49 per month but only get a flight a RT every other month?

Then need to book 14 days in advance and even then you can only use it for empty flights. the FP should be based on fare class that is somewhat always available right up to departure say the M fare class. That is the point of a flight pass....flexiblilty and ease of use.

They should look to AC - they have had extensive flight passes for years. But even AC has issues since a lot of thier fares are cheaper than the FP - the only interesting value is the "unlimited flight for X months"

And then not to be seamless into your MP acct? Separate entitiy etc.

This was a third party selling this to AS and the third party is going to get the breakage split....

Initially i was excited for something meaningful....but overly complicated....hard to use and i can get fares as needed for less with more flexibility on the regular booking channel. I was hoping for a "all you can travel FP" or something....but i think they really swung and missed here.

Eastbay1K

Don't "they" all just take some private helicopter service to their airports of choice?

Tack

I think you’re spot on and you’re the customer I believe they want. I do a very small amount of inter CA flying and almost none to Nevada. So, for me, it’s better to roll the dice and hope it works out. The $49.00 pass? Almost like how I price some of my business services. I’ll give a small taste for a low price. But it’s designed to get you to buy up to the higher end product. AS stated on employee web site that the pricing makes them money. But if it isn’t too popular, they haven’t spent a large amount in product development. Congrats. I hope it works well for you. Looking forward to your reports.

sfozrhfco

Exactly right. People buy a season pass for amusement parks, etc because it is simple and they can go when they want. AS has been touting this as the Netflix for flights when that is a very poor comparison. Imagine getting a Netflix subscription and only one person could watch one movie/TV show every two months and you had to confirm which one that was 2 weeks in advance. Then if you want to change and watch another show you need to call a third party to change from one show to another, potentially have to pay an additional fee, etc. Netflix would not be in business if that were their model.

The other problem for AS is that their fan base is in AK/WA/OR and they piss those people off by not including any routes to or within the PNW. Just look at all the social media commentary. It is all about people being disappointed it is not offered from the state of AK or from PDX/SEA.

Visconti

Thus far, the signing up process (aside from not taking Amex which they really need to resolve) has been easy and my initial flight bookings have been seamless. It appears on my Alaska account where I manually select a premium seat with an auto-upgrade request to F. Everything appears as it should except for the ticket code "M," which I've never seen before.

Here's the potential savings: Booked LAS to SFO in March for a Monday (have a $15 F9 on the initial leg from SFO - LAS) where the return fares are generally higher. The cheapest fare on that day was around $60'ish on F9, and even if I had 200K Elite status with F9, I'd never pay more than $30 for any of their flights. For the RT, I just picked the most expensive day in March where I'm headed there again. So, even before paying my March sub fee, just with the back of the envelope calculation here, I've saved about $30 - $40 in cash (on that Monday where I'd have to pay regardless), rack up 2 segs and fly with my elite status which, all things being equal, is infinitely a better experience than either WN or F9, even on their best days.

And, I ain't the most experienced flyer or the sharpest tool in the shed, but the way it worked above seemed pretty clear the moment I read (yes, I actually did read it this time) FAQ and T&Cs of the deal. No idea about the next 5 of my 6, but if this keeps up, I'm upping it to 12.

PS - Also, it appears AS has finally gotten rid of most of those twinkie jets on the SFO - LAS route. Good, stick them on a route I don't fly.

Kamiakdad

I'm sure it has value if you use it every month but AS is counting on you to not get a chance to use it at some point during the 12 months of subscription. AS is not in the business of losing money on every flight so it has calculated that many subscribers will not be able to use some of their credits to make this service work. Given the pure volume of flying FT members fly, FT members are not AS intended subscribers. It's like buffets, it doesn't work if every customer eats their weight, it only works if small eaters are lining up as well.

Visconti

LOL...is that what they're calling it? I haven't read or seen the general marketing and made my decision just on the initial terms. I get what the C-Suite is trying to catch lightning in a bottle and replicate some of the success some enterprises have achieved via the SaaS business model where recurring revenue that's sticky is the most valuable kind. No idea if that model can be adopted to the air-travel industry, but it's nice to see someone try it. I've never had much reason to check in on their quarterly earnings or conference calls, but I may just to see how this will unfold for their bottom line.

This probably isn't the answer or reality those consumers like to hear but when a market is captive or has limited choices, a business will take your revenue for granted and use those higher GMs to market in other more competitive markets necessary for expansion, e.g., SFO, LAX. It's just business and probably why LAX with their environment of near perfect competition has the best fares to almost any destination and great for consumers able to take advantage of it.

notquiteaff

The partner that AS teamed up with to build the subscription service describes it here (in a pitch to airlines, not travelers):

https://www.caravelo.com/travel-subscriptions/

Isn’t the loyalty program supposed to solve the customer re-acquisition problem? Do they think there is a big market of people who weren’t “loyal” to Alaska via MileagePlan and now sign up for this new scheme?

Frankly, most subscriptions for products that historically weren’t subscription-based because they were more of a product purchase model (software licenses, for example) tend to be great for the company but not so good for the consumer.

Visconti

This has been my experience and I generally hate subscriptions. Even now, if it weren't nearly free, I'd rather buy my music than subscribing to it year after year. When Microsoft introduced that Office 365 sub model, I absolutely hated it and just purchased the DVD version for the one time cost and will use it for the next 10 years.

vanillabean

Buffets, or insurance. The irony of say health insurance is that those who sign up for it are often also the ones who are best at not getting in trouble to begin with, the small eaters if you will. Or take something like the much underrated single premium immediate annuity, which is unpopular among those who think they may not live long enough to benefit from it; instead they worry all day and all night whether their retirement savings might outlive them. And as you say, non-FT people don't focus on mileage points from travel and credit cards the way that we do; many happily have one or two cards giving them one penny on the dollar. When that is said, this subscription service probably isn't suited for someone like me, but I find the perspective of it interesting, like a crossword puzzle or a game of bingo, I imagine.

notquiteaff

I find it as interesting as a crossword puzzle in the Russian language - I don’t live in CA (or speak Russian).

While I suspect this experiment will not be very successful and thus end or change significantly, it is interesting for a (Russian speaking) FTer to study. And I definitely prefer that they experiment with this type of “loyalty” scheme than with the MileagePlan scheme I like and use

drewdawg199

Check the Flight Pass search engine for that route, it was the first route I found that had multiple dates with "premium" additional fees. I'm sure it's still a good deal, just maybe not the screaming deal you think.