[Speculation] Spirit/Frontier Merger - Effects on AS?
Feb 8, 2022, 7:24 pm
#46
Join Date: Aug 2011
Programs: UA 2P, UC, Hertz 5*, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 513
What about AS + B6? ... AS with it's heavy west coast presence and B6 with it's mostly heavy east coast presence I know this might not happen now, but I think it will in the future. I honestly hope not though as I like AS a lot more than B6.
Feb 8, 2022, 7:39 pm
#47
Join Date: Sep 2021
Programs: AS MVP Gold 75K
Posts: 248
I've never understood budget carriers like Frontier and Spirit. It seems their whole business model is built on deception. Advertise low fares and pile on the fees. Unless you travel with literally nothing but your cell phone you're going to end up paying the same or more than on a regular airline that at least gives you a free carry-on.
I've talked to numerous groups of people in places like Vegas that ended up getting "stung" by just taking the bait of the low advertised fare.
To the point of the thread, I can't see this merger having any impact on AS. Aside from the regional thing, the business models are just totally different.
As for a merger dream - I'd love to see Alaska and Hawaiian merge. They overlap a lot of areas and could really dominate the west coast (or, with the range of the planes these days the western US) to Hawaii flights.
I've talked to numerous groups of people in places like Vegas that ended up getting "stung" by just taking the bait of the low advertised fare.
To the point of the thread, I can't see this merger having any impact on AS. Aside from the regional thing, the business models are just totally different.
As for a merger dream - I'd love to see Alaska and Hawaiian merge. They overlap a lot of areas and could really dominate the west coast (or, with the range of the planes these days the western US) to Hawaii flights.
Feb 8, 2022, 8:22 pm
#48
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: PDX, OGG or between the two
Programs: AS 75K
Posts: 2,859
Feb 8, 2022, 9:22 pm
#50
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,844
If AS takes over, they are unlikely to be as profitable and will certainly have their work cut out for them operating in congested areas of the country with many more delays and weather issues than AS's current network. The have their own pilots to work out an agreement with, plus an increasing part of the network run by QX/OO which are going to have severe pilot shortage problems in the coming year. That outsourcing is against the pilot contract that B6 has---and thus would be a problem for the combined company. If you think they have problems now sorting out VX/AS pilots currently, just wait until adding in yet a 3rd work group that would advocate for the elimination of OO outsourcing and the raising of pay for QX workers to the level of those mainline workers.
Combining the two does very little to help with the major areas of the country and the world that are not well served by either B6 or AS. The downsides including the messy integration far outweigh the benefits---most especially for B6 which would gain very little of any value to them. There are plenty of gates to grow at SFO now. LAX would be a small benefit. The rest would not really add much.
B6 has a clear path to grow naturally. AS has been promising one for years now but has not articulated any real growth strategy aside from maintaining its heavy presence in SEA.
We don't need any more mergers at this point in the US. Invest the money to make both carriers better. That would be better for employees, passengers, and other stake holders.
Feb 8, 2022, 11:14 pm
#53
Feb 9, 2022, 4:47 pm
#54
Feb 9, 2022, 5:48 pm
#55
Join Date: Feb 2022
Programs: Alaska MVP Gold 100K, Frontier Elite100K
Posts: 222
How about the merged airlines becoming AlaHaw
Feb 9, 2022, 7:05 pm
#56
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Over the Bay Bridge, CA
Programs: Jumbo mas
Posts: 38,600
Feb 9, 2022, 7:09 pm
#57
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: SEA (the REAL Washington); occasionally in the other Washington (DCA area)
Programs: DL PM 1.57MM; AS MVPG 100K
Posts: 21,358
Feb 9, 2022, 8:09 pm
#58
Join Date: May 2005
Location: SEA
Programs: AS; Hyatt Globalist; Hilton Gold; NEXUS
Posts: 976
I'm going to guess a majority of people posting in this thread have never flown Spirit or Frontier.
I flew F9 once - back in 2013 or so, CVG-DEN-SEA. Remembering back, I think I booked this flight because DL wanted $700 in Y each way for their CVG-SEA nonstop which was crazy, and the flights on AA/US/UA just didn't make sense schedule-wise. It was easily the most agitating set of flights I have ever taken. Not because of anything I did wrong or any misaligned expectations, but because the other passengers were hot under the collar about all the charges and didn't understand that overhead bin space cost cash. The boarding process was easily the longest I've had for a single-body aircraft with people getting pulled out of line for various reasons. The ads on the backs of tray tables were a new thing for me (which I now see have been removed, but replaced with ridiculously tiny tray tables). The person seated next to us on the CVG-DEN leg found the entire thing amusing... for us with a 6am departure, not so much. Combined with the small pitch, I wanted off that aircraft in the worst way.
They do not primarily compete with Alaska and that's consistent with the fares being filed. F9 and NK are in the business of trying to capture price sensitive customers like college students and low to middle income families who might not otherwise be able to afford a fare on a legacy carrier. They compete mostly with a customer's car who might otherwise vacation regionally. Maybe AS gets some of these on saver fares but these aren't the same people booking flights to Hawaii, or even Alaska for that matter. These are primarily people debating whether to vacation locally, or take a mid-con to Florida, the Caribbean, Vegas, or to see family in the midwest.
I flew F9 once - back in 2013 or so, CVG-DEN-SEA. Remembering back, I think I booked this flight because DL wanted $700 in Y each way for their CVG-SEA nonstop which was crazy, and the flights on AA/US/UA just didn't make sense schedule-wise. It was easily the most agitating set of flights I have ever taken. Not because of anything I did wrong or any misaligned expectations, but because the other passengers were hot under the collar about all the charges and didn't understand that overhead bin space cost cash. The boarding process was easily the longest I've had for a single-body aircraft with people getting pulled out of line for various reasons. The ads on the backs of tray tables were a new thing for me (which I now see have been removed, but replaced with ridiculously tiny tray tables). The person seated next to us on the CVG-DEN leg found the entire thing amusing... for us with a 6am departure, not so much. Combined with the small pitch, I wanted off that aircraft in the worst way.
They do not primarily compete with Alaska and that's consistent with the fares being filed. F9 and NK are in the business of trying to capture price sensitive customers like college students and low to middle income families who might not otherwise be able to afford a fare on a legacy carrier. They compete mostly with a customer's car who might otherwise vacation regionally. Maybe AS gets some of these on saver fares but these aren't the same people booking flights to Hawaii, or even Alaska for that matter. These are primarily people debating whether to vacation locally, or take a mid-con to Florida, the Caribbean, Vegas, or to see family in the midwest.
Feb 10, 2022, 8:07 am
#59
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Mountain Time Zone
Programs: AS Million Miler/Marriott Lifetime Titanium/ IGH Ambassador
Posts: 5,990
Honesty that would be even more dumb than the VX merger. B6 doesn't really gain much. They already have more places to grow than planes and have their work cut out for them in NY/BOS/FLL/LAX/Europe, deeper into Latin America, and possibly SFO. Just over the next few years they will have a much more robust network and they gain a lot from the close relationship with AA in NYC and BOS which would for sure be lost if they merged with AS. Costs would be higher which would negate one of AS's greatest strengths. The fleets would be a problem. If B6 takes over they certainly do not want the MAXs AS has on order. As it is, they are more likely to need wide bodies for their expanding international network and AS has 0 wide bodies and does not fly any intercontinental flights.
If AS takes over, they are unlikely to be as profitable and will certainly have their work cut out for them operating in congested areas of the country with many more delays and weather issues than AS's current network. The have their own pilots to work out an agreement with, plus an increasing part of the network run by QX/OO which are going to have severe pilot shortage problems in the coming year. That outsourcing is against the pilot contract that B6 has---and thus would be a problem for the combined company. If you think they have problems now sorting out VX/AS pilots currently, just wait until adding in yet a 3rd work group that would advocate for the elimination of OO outsourcing and the raising of pay for QX workers to the level of those mainline workers.
Combining the two does very little to help with the major areas of the country and the world that are not well served by either B6 or AS. The downsides including the messy integration far outweigh the benefits---most especially for B6 which would gain very little of any value to them. There are plenty of gates to grow at SFO now. LAX would be a small benefit. The rest would not really add much.
B6 has a clear path to grow naturally. AS has been promising one for years now but has not articulated any real growth strategy aside from maintaining its heavy presence in SEA.
We don't need any more mergers at this point in the US. Invest the money to make both carriers better. That would be better for employees, passengers, and other stake holders.
If AS takes over, they are unlikely to be as profitable and will certainly have their work cut out for them operating in congested areas of the country with many more delays and weather issues than AS's current network. The have their own pilots to work out an agreement with, plus an increasing part of the network run by QX/OO which are going to have severe pilot shortage problems in the coming year. That outsourcing is against the pilot contract that B6 has---and thus would be a problem for the combined company. If you think they have problems now sorting out VX/AS pilots currently, just wait until adding in yet a 3rd work group that would advocate for the elimination of OO outsourcing and the raising of pay for QX workers to the level of those mainline workers.
Combining the two does very little to help with the major areas of the country and the world that are not well served by either B6 or AS. The downsides including the messy integration far outweigh the benefits---most especially for B6 which would gain very little of any value to them. There are plenty of gates to grow at SFO now. LAX would be a small benefit. The rest would not really add much.
B6 has a clear path to grow naturally. AS has been promising one for years now but has not articulated any real growth strategy aside from maintaining its heavy presence in SEA.
We don't need any more mergers at this point in the US. Invest the money to make both carriers better. That would be better for employees, passengers, and other stake holders.
Feb 10, 2022, 8:54 am
#60
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,844
I guess I need to comment yet again. The poster has not replied to my posting all the midwest cites AS flys to. Moving on "Honesty that would be even more dumb than the VX merger" while in the beginning I was skeptical now I see it AS was after those slots VX had which they have used them to their advantage. There were many of those routes I found very convenient for my up and down the west coast then across country. While I agree some may have found it "stupid" I remember back in business school growth " grow tangentially, organically or acquire to grow.I believe AS made the right decision. As for a merger I agree with poster doesn't male sense plus DOJ might not allow it. There are certainly other ways to ghost merge. For me I am not sure that AS wouldn't go long on the stock
Mergers are most useful to make investment bankers money.
As