Flight canceled for snow advisory in seattle 12/6/2021
Dec 6, 2021, 5:19 pm
#32
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Seattle
Programs: Alaska airlines 100k
Posts: 923
Could have been on the MKE end due to wind in the Midwest as there are numerous wind advisories out now. The wind is pretty crazy outside right now where I'm at (near DTW). https://www.weather.gov/ I don't think I'd want to be flying in the area today if avoidable.
Dec 7, 2021, 4:40 pm
#33
Join Date: Jun 2021
Programs: AS 100K
Posts: 294
In May 2021, AS rebooked my maintenance cancelled FLL-SEA flight on UA. I declined and waited for another AS flight since it didn’t save much time given the final destination ANC.
Dec 8, 2021, 5:14 pm
#34
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Federal Way, WA
Programs: Mileage Plus 2P, Marriott Silver, many others
Posts: 1,305
"Aren't always correct". LMAO. Here in the PNW, or at least the seattle area, they are more often wrong than correct.
Cancelling flights because of possible Seattle light snow forecast 12-24 hours in advance is like betting on the Seahawks to be Superbowl champs after seeing them make one TD in the pre-season. I firmly believe the meteorologists here have no clue what's going to happen and just update the weather in real time as they walk outside or look out a window and/or throw in a chance of snow/windstorm/lightning for some good clicks/ratings.
Cancelling flights because of possible Seattle light snow forecast 12-24 hours in advance is like betting on the Seahawks to be Superbowl champs after seeing them make one TD in the pre-season. I firmly believe the meteorologists here have no clue what's going to happen and just update the weather in real time as they walk outside or look out a window and/or throw in a chance of snow/windstorm/lightning for some good clicks/ratings.
The Seattle area truly is the hardest place in CONUS to forecast weather. Although satellites have reduced -- but not eliminated -- the problem of no upwind reporting stations, those pesky Olympic Mountains are always the wild card. Quite often all the forecast models will all decide the flow will divert the same way (north or south), and then Mother Nature plays a joke and the weather goes the other direction.
That said, I didn't see any forecasts for more than a dusting of snow in the lowlands, if that. My uninformed (since I don't have access to their planning tools) opinion is that this cancellation was quite premature, at least for weather reasons.
Dec 8, 2021, 5:46 pm
#35
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Seattle
Programs: Alaska airlines 100k
Posts: 923
Speaking as one with a meteorology degree:
The Seattle area truly is the hardest place in CONUS to forecast weather. Although satellites have reduced -- but not eliminated -- the problem of no upwind reporting stations, those pesky Olympic Mountains are always the wild card. Quite often all the forecast models will all decide the flow will divert the same way (north or south), and then Mother Nature plays a joke and the weather goes the other direction.
That said, I didn't see any forecasts for more than a dusting of snow in the lowlands, if that. My uninformed (since I don't have access to their planning tools) opinion is that this cancellation was quite premature, at least for weather reasons.
The Seattle area truly is the hardest place in CONUS to forecast weather. Although satellites have reduced -- but not eliminated -- the problem of no upwind reporting stations, those pesky Olympic Mountains are always the wild card. Quite often all the forecast models will all decide the flow will divert the same way (north or south), and then Mother Nature plays a joke and the weather goes the other direction.
That said, I didn't see any forecasts for more than a dusting of snow in the lowlands, if that. My uninformed (since I don't have access to their planning tools) opinion is that this cancellation was quite premature, at least for weather reasons.
This “weather possibility” didn’t seem to affect a significant number of flights the same day. Would say less than a fraction of a percent of flights leaving Seattle same day and time with the same risk for those flights. It would appear to have been “luckily convenient” for a cancellation and consolidation opportunity for passengers into a single next day flight.
I guess I along with all the other passengers should have been so grateful to have had the seamless transfer to a flight to the next day. Lucky there was a seat for every passenger. (Full disclosure I cancelled my flight and didn’t travel at all this week)
Dec 9, 2021, 11:35 pm
#36
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Federal Way, WA
Programs: Mileage Plus 2P, Marriott Silver, many others
Posts: 1,305
I fully agree that this looks to me like a case of shenanigans. I was just hoping to point out why the forecasts are so often so far off (paragraph one) and that the forecasts I saw did not justify a "weather" cancellation (paragraph two).