ANC_Nomad

I'm considering taking a status match to AS, and trying to evaluate a few things. Currently, ANC based with AS MVP and DL DM. My main flying is:

-ANC-ATL/PHL 10-14x/year, mostly ATL
-ATL-PHL 6-8x/yr

I also expect to add during the next few years:

-ATL- random southeast U.S 4-6/yr
-ATL- PHLv3-5x/ yr

So, in a nutshell, flying from AS territory to DL territory through a mutual hub, with a fair bit of travel to an AA hub.

I expect that for 2022 I could easily keep PM while also taking an immediate status match on AS and flying the majority of my ANC-ATL on AS to hit 75k or 100k. Small but not insignificant chance of enough flights within the eastern US on DL to even keep DM on DL.

My main questions are around:

1. Upgrade frequency on AS: Currently it's rare I fly my DL routes in anything less than F, even between hubs like ATL-MSP/SEA. Could I expect the same on AS as 75k (and 100k when it launches)?

2. AS awards availability- this switch was prompted both by the announcement of the AS 100k level and DL nerfing partner flights this winter...I'm finding that good redemptions of skymiles are few and far between. My cursory searches through the AS app shows good availability on partners, but is this normal or simply a covid related blip?

Last thoughts: I know that with the OW and AA partnerships being so fresh it's difficult to say with much accuracy, but are we expecting the potential loss of RUC/GUC WITH DL to be similar to what I'll gain with AS guest upgrades and the promises international upgrades with AA?

Sorry if this was an overdrawn post, but I'm looking forward to hearing everyone's insight!

anteater

AS upgrade out of hubs such as SEA and ANC can be difficult even for 75Ks. Perhaps someone with some data points can post their experiences.

AS MVP Gold 100K tier hasn’t been finalized or launched yet, so no one knows when it will start or what it will be like to utilize.

Flying for Fun

It appears that AS 75K will get one AA SWU, or equivalent. With AA Elites complaining there isn't availability to confirm them much in advance or at all, I don't see that as being a huge benefit. The only utility I see, for myself, is moving into a lie-flat from PE on AA long-haul or ultra long-haul flights. I wouldn't be flying in Main and earning 25%-50% EQM so I could utilize a SWU when the metric for AS Status is EQM.

Maybe 100K will receive an additional one, but that is yet unknown.

I will say though that there is better access to AA premium international awards in some of the South American and European markets I have been following. I see that as being oneworld access to award space, not the former we love you, we hate you and no, you can't have a premium seat on this route & no, you can't book married segments, relationship.

James

RAD_PDX

Wait until the 100K tier is announced and we have all of the details. End of story.

Flying for Fun

Oh, come on now! Isn't that the antithesis of Flyer Talk?

James

_fx

12-16 domestic flights on AA sounds like 12-16 too many, IMO. PHL in particular gets the worst AA aircraft. I would stick to DL.

jiburi

My suggestion is the same. As DL diamond will potentially be matched to AS 100K, I’d think it would be a waste to use your status match to 75K when you might get a 100K match later. I’d wait if I were you.

Jiburi

RAD_PDX

I hope not! There is no way to get a match/challenge to the top tier at AA/UA/DL*

*I know DL recently ran a promo where select people in certain markets could match to Diamond but that is the only exception I know of. It's possible AS could do something like that when they first introduce 100K, but I hope that would be the extent of it.

fly747first

Upgrades on DL are a lot worse than at AA for top tier flyers...

ANC_Nomad

Flights would be on AS metal, except for using SWU on AA.

It does sound as though waiting for the 100k details would be good. Only reason I thought to possibly jump ahead is that with AS current status match, they're awarding a 50% bump to qualifying miles for the rest of the year. As I expect i would fly >67k miles on AS metal this year, that's enough to bump me to 100k...assuming the launch uses 2021 miles flown as a qualifier, rather than starting the qualifying period in 2022.

Thanks for the inputs so far, still curious to hear about upgrade frequency from others on those routes.

NoLaGent

That's a good point about the 50% bump for matchers through EOY, I'd forgotten about that.

ANC-SEA is probably one of the highest 75k routes (in terms of pax) that you can find, and SEA-ATL has limited service and from previous reports, could be a tough one for upgrades. The rest of your travel patterns from your OP mean you're going to be flying a lot of DL regardless.

Personally, I'd do the match and have DL DM and at a minimum AS 75k through the end of 2022.

icelandman2

Pre-COVID, I cleared 89% of upgrades as 75k, all on the cheapest fare classes. My second-worst route systemwide for upgrades was ANC-SEA at 66% though (n=3 so not very large sample size).

SFO_FT

+1. ALOT worse!