Price jump from $249 to $969

Old Feb 20, 21, 11:35 am
  #1  
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Price jump from $249 to $969

I recently booked a flight from SAN to FLL on December 23.2021 for $249 for a miain fare. Yesterday it went to $799 for the main fare, and today it went to $969. It appears that four seats are taken including my two. It is right before Christmas, so I understand that fares will be higher. Might alot of seats be booked at the saver rate, or might this flight get cancelled. Has any one seen this type of fair jump?
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Old Feb 20, 21, 11:55 am
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The flight is booking into Y, fully refundable economy. That price is not far off from what I would expect a Y ticket booked 10 months out to cost.

After looking a little more, it seems like this is a system-wide issue. My guess would be that it is related to them changing the fare classes over in preparation for the new fare class structure being implemented on Tuesday.

Last edited by RAD_PDX; Feb 20, 21 at 12:01 pm
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Old Feb 20, 21, 12:11 pm
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They've zero'd out bucket inventory in all buckets below Y class on flights around Thanksgiving and Christmas. I doubt this is an IT issue and they are just likely reassessing demand around these popular travel dates before re-opening buckets in lower classes. These things are all dynamic -- there's no fixed number of seats they allocate to each fare class for a particular flight. They are basically pausing sales on these flights as they reassess and they want to avoid selling too many seats in cheaper fare classes if they can. It's not like there is that much demand for flights this far out. It's guaranteed they will re-open inventory in lower buckets at some point as they pretty obviously aren't going to fill many seats with these full Y fares. It's safe to say they are not doing this because they are considering cancelling these flights as they are only zero'd out around high demand dates.

$799 fare is a YH0OASMR fare which has blackout dates -- Blackout Dates: TRAVEL IS NOT PERMITTED 20NOV 20 THROUGH 22NOV 20 OR 28NOV 20 THROUGH 30NOV 20 OR 19DEC 20 THROUGH 20DEC 20 OR 26DEC 20 THROUGH 27DEC 20 OR 02JAN 21 THROUGH 03JAN 21 OR 19NOV 21 THROUGH 21NOV 21 OR 27NOV 21 THROUGH 29NOV 21 OR 17DEC 21 THROUGH 24DEC 21 OR 26DEC 21 THROUGH 03JAN 22. $949 fare is a YH0OASFR fare also with blackout dates. $969 fare is a YASR1 fare with no blackout dates. This is why you see different prices on different dates. They are all fully refundable Y fares, but just with some different date availability restrictions.
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Last edited by xliioper; Feb 20, 21 at 12:35 pm
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Old Feb 20, 21, 12:27 pm
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Originally Posted by xliioper View Post
They've zero'd out bucket inventory in all buckets below Y class on flights around Thanksgiving and Christmas. I doubt this is an IT issue and they are just reassessing demand around these popular travel dates before re-opening buckets in lower classes. $799 fare is a YH0OASMR fare which has blackout dates -- Blackout Dates: TRAVEL IS NOT PERMITTED 20NOV 20 THROUGH 22NOV 20 OR 28NOV 20 THROUGH 30NOV 20 OR 19DEC 20 THROUGH 20DEC 20 OR 26DEC 20 THROUGH 27DEC 20 OR 02JAN 21 THROUGH 03JAN 21 OR 19NOV 21 THROUGH 21NOV 21 OR 27NOV 21 THROUGH 29NOV 21 OR 17DEC 21 THROUGH 24DEC 21 OR 26DEC 21 THROUGH 03JAN 22. $949 fare is a YH0OASFR fare also with blackout dates. $969 fare is a YASR1 fare with no blackout dates. This is why you see different prices on different dates. They are all fully refundable Y fares, but just with some different date availability restrictions.
'
Even flights not include in those dates book into G, L and even H instead of R. Maybe the lowest fare bucket simply hasn't been released (and in the case of R, never will since it's about to disappear).
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Old Feb 20, 21, 12:47 pm
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Flights are paused from April 3rd to Oct 6th. All flights are currently T0 R0 from Oct 7th on when they restart. Revenue management is a fine art. A few years back, UA admitted that they hadn't really adapted for the times are weren't managing inventory as well as they could have and were selling too many seats in lower fare classes that could have been sold for more -- https://crankyflier.com/2016/11/28/u...nce-of-demand/
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Old Feb 20, 21, 12:53 pm
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Originally Posted by xliioper View Post
Flights are paused from April 3rd to Oct 6th. All flights are currently T0 R0 from Oct 7th on when they restart. Revenue management is a fine art. A few years back, UA admitted that they hadn't really adapted for the times are weren't managing inventory as well as they could have and were selling too many seats in lower fare classes that could have been sold for more -- https://crankyflier.com/2016/11/28/u...nce-of-demand/
What exactly does that mean, paused?
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Old Feb 20, 21, 1:06 pm
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Originally Posted by NoLaGent View Post
What exactly does that mean, paused?
The route is suspended between those dates as it's a seasonal route. Don't know if this route has historically been seasonal, but it is true this year.

To answer my own question, this is a new route which was announced back in late July and started back in November. It looks like it was always intended to be seasonal. Frequencies were increased as it was originally only 3x weekly.

Last edited by xliioper; Feb 20, 21 at 3:00 pm
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Old Feb 20, 21, 1:56 pm
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Originally Posted by xliioper View Post
The route is suspended between those dates as it's a seasonal route. Don't know if this route has historically been seasonal, but it is true this year.
Ahhh, now I understand. I thought you were speaking of revenue management in general, which my poor brain couldn't parse.
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Old Feb 21, 21, 7:00 pm
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Historically, AS is well known for holding all but the most-expensive fare buckets to leisure destinations surrounding the holidays. If they've still got inventory closer in, they may release lower fare buckets. I also noticed they've returned to this policy recently---wish I'd locked in those holiday trips earlier.
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Old Feb 22, 21, 6:14 am
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Originally Posted by Erasmus View Post
Historically, AS is well known for holding all but the most-expensive fare buckets to leisure destinations surrounding the holidays. If they've still got inventory closer in, they may release lower fare buckets. I also noticed they've returned to this policy recently---wish I'd locked in those holiday trips earlier.
I booked my flight the day it opened up for $249 and did the $89 for the premium. Seems like I got a decent price.
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Old Feb 22, 21, 6:45 am
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Honestly - this may be a very smart move - if someone buys now and pays USD 9XX for this ticket, AS is a winner. If nobody books, they still have plenty of time to open lower yield inventory

Last edited by TPJ; Feb 22, 21 at 6:52 am Reason: gramar
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Old Feb 22, 21, 6:48 am
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Originally Posted by wesport View Post
I booked my flight the day it opened up for $249 and did the $89 for the premium. Seems like I got a decent price.
Yes, it probably won't get lower than that. The cheapest fare that is not blacked out for that date is a $199 X fare. There are lower priced R and T fares, but they have black outs around holidays --

TO FLORIDA - TRAVEL IS NOT PERMITTED 18NOV 21 THROUGH 21NOV 21 OR 15DEC 21 THROUGH 30DEC 21.
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Old Feb 22, 21, 9:36 am
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Yeah, even the lower level award travel tickets to just about anywhere in the AS system are all gone for a few weeks around the holidays....like literally everything it seems.
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Old Feb 22, 21, 11:58 am
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Same thing happening on some flights I am watching to Hawaii. Nothing sold, months out, price has gone from $645 to $1850 back to $645 and again to $1585 or something. Current prices are high enough that the strategy even if nothing changes would be to book one ticket cash and one miles, because I am not paying $3000-4000 for two people to go to Hawaii. I would rather recruit a bunch of friends and fill up a private jet at that price.

Hoping that it drops again, plenty of time to wait it out. Or will just buy the possible DL and HA tickets that are still pricing under $1000. Honestly in F I would rather fly HA or DL anyways.

Last edited by PV_Premier; Feb 22, 21 at 12:03 pm
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Old Feb 22, 21, 9:48 pm
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Originally Posted by xliioper View Post
The route is suspended between those dates as it's a seasonal route. Don't know if this route has historically been seasonal, but it is true this year.
Wait, hold up. FML if this is the case. I finally got SAN-FLL direct which I need for work, it was painful enough working around the days it was flying, but now it's seasonal? Ugh.

I really wouldn't care, except the SAN-SEA-FLL option is a red eye.
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