[Speculation] Alaska Fleet Adjustments Due to COVID-19?
Mar 31, 2020, 8:57 am
#1
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Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 490
[Speculation] Alaska Fleet Adjustments Due to COVID-19?
American has announced a large fleet reduction via accelerated retirements of older aircraft. Namely the 757s, 767s and 74 older 737-800s. Delta has also announced acceleration of the MD fleet retirement.
What adjustments might we see to the Alaska fleet? Will the a319s be jettisoned sooner? Perhaps some of the older 737-800s will be retired?
market analysts speculate demand for air travel will not recover to pre 2020 numbers for a while. With a few MAXs already built, and dozens more on order, I wonder if Alaska will trim the NG fleet and the airbus fleet sooner and let the MAX deliveries slowly ramp the fleet back up to pre-COVID numbers.
thoughts?
What adjustments might we see to the Alaska fleet? Will the a319s be jettisoned sooner? Perhaps some of the older 737-800s will be retired?
market analysts speculate demand for air travel will not recover to pre 2020 numbers for a while. With a few MAXs already built, and dozens more on order, I wonder if Alaska will trim the NG fleet and the airbus fleet sooner and let the MAX deliveries slowly ramp the fleet back up to pre-COVID numbers.
thoughts?
Mar 31, 2020, 10:09 am
#3
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Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 490
I could see the 319s being dumped, and some of the older 320s having an accelerated retirement.
I wouldn’t mind seeing the non-ER 900s being retired either. I’ve gotta imagine they’re due for a heavy check soon, unless they’ve recently completed it. That’s usually a trigger for retirements if an airline is already considering it, or needing to cut capacity.
Mar 31, 2020, 10:17 am
#5
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I’m really looking forward to seeing the Max interior. That’ll be the first time Alaska receives the new interior from the OEM, so it should look even better than the retrofit airplanes.
Mar 31, 2020, 10:21 am
#6
formerly ASTechGuy
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Milton, WA USA
Posts: 229
Word internally is that they're considering using this as an opportunity to quickly migrate back to an all 737 fleet, meaning quick return of all if the airbus, including the A321s. Despite all the recent investments in interior mods and the operating benefits of the A321s, it's not hard to see how the economics of a single fleet type could be really compelling in this kind of scenario. They'd have some pilot training costs to work through even with significant furloughs, but knowing how this company thinks, I could easily see them choosing to go this direction, especially given how many of the Airbus jets are on short term leases.
Mar 31, 2020, 10:32 am
#7
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 490
Word internally is that they're considering using this as an opportunity to quickly migrate back to an all 737 fleet, meaning quick return of all if the airbus, including the A321s. Despite all the recent investments in interior mods and the operating benefits of the A321s, it's not hard to see how the economics of a single fleet type could be really compelling in this kind of scenario. They'd have some pilot training costs to work through even with significant furloughs, but knowing how this company thinks, I could easily see them choosing to go this direction, especially given how many of the Airbus jets are on short term leases.
Mar 31, 2020, 10:49 am
#8
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Until they start getting a steep on ramp of MAXs I don’t see how they can afford to lose all of that capacity post covid. I could see retiring a large chunk of the airbus fleet near term, but to completely ditch the airbus fleet without MAXs coming in is hard for me to picture.
Mar 31, 2020, 1:23 pm
#9
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 5,956
Word internally is that they're considering using this as an opportunity to quickly migrate back to an all 737 fleet, meaning quick return of all if the airbus, including the A321s. Despite all the recent investments in interior mods and the operating benefits of the A321s, it's not hard to see how the economics of a single fleet type could be really compelling in this kind of scenario. They'd have some pilot training costs to work through even with significant furloughs, but knowing how this company thinks, I could easily see them choosing to go this direction, especially given how many of the Airbus jets are on short term leases.
Mar 31, 2020, 2:00 pm
#10
FlyerTalk Evangelist
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That’s not the “word internally”. They’re parking a fairly substantial number of Boeing 737-900’s right now and, per the last communication, 319’s and the 320’s that have yet to undergo refurb will be parked. Was in OKC several days ago and saw 10 737-900’s and not one Airbus. I have no idea what their fleet plan is but the “word internally” is all over the board depending on who you talk to.
On the other hand, it wouldn't be Flyertalk without threads on unsubstantiated spekulashens!
Mar 31, 2020, 3:15 pm
#12
Join Date: Dec 2010
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OK - ill bite at the speculation - cuz thats all i got to do right now.....
319s - parked....returned to lessors as soon as possible - they were in bad shape before all this....so let someone else pick up the tab for reconfiguration
320a - fairly new; but still need to finish mods on the N2, N3 series fleets. I suspect these will continue post c19. N621VA - parked....returned to lessor as previously planned. N641VA - just got MX done....so perhaps fills in as needed.....the rest of the 320s - i see them being used post c19 and slowly returned to lessors per original agreements
321s - they will keep them fully....they love the operating costs on those birds - so i can see the non-ER 739s going first before the neos
Q400s - small outstation use will continue
E75s - I actually see these as a large advantage for trunk routes to operate in April with very low demand.....especially in the next couple of weeks.
738s - older ones to be replaced by maxes later in the year
739s - older ones to be replaced by maxes later in the year
Given models on this whole thing....the worst looks like in April....so if we start to see SIP orders or workplace rules to be loosened May 1 - we will start to see essential travel demand start to pick up more....June 1 start of the hard core leisure flyers to come back.....Im hoping these timelines are accurate and appropriate - if so - i think we will see demand really come back a little in June/July - not saying huge demand but better than the 5 pax per 738 they are flying now......there is a lot of pent up demand ready to come back if this is only a couple of months.....
funny i thought it was weird a couple years ago flying MCI-SAN on an E75 with 16/76 on board - i cant imagine a 5 pax on a 320 or 738!
stay safe and we will be back into the sky soon! take care of each other!
319s - parked....returned to lessors as soon as possible - they were in bad shape before all this....so let someone else pick up the tab for reconfiguration
320a - fairly new; but still need to finish mods on the N2, N3 series fleets. I suspect these will continue post c19. N621VA - parked....returned to lessor as previously planned. N641VA - just got MX done....so perhaps fills in as needed.....the rest of the 320s - i see them being used post c19 and slowly returned to lessors per original agreements
321s - they will keep them fully....they love the operating costs on those birds - so i can see the non-ER 739s going first before the neos
Q400s - small outstation use will continue
E75s - I actually see these as a large advantage for trunk routes to operate in April with very low demand.....especially in the next couple of weeks.
738s - older ones to be replaced by maxes later in the year
739s - older ones to be replaced by maxes later in the year
Given models on this whole thing....the worst looks like in April....so if we start to see SIP orders or workplace rules to be loosened May 1 - we will start to see essential travel demand start to pick up more....June 1 start of the hard core leisure flyers to come back.....Im hoping these timelines are accurate and appropriate - if so - i think we will see demand really come back a little in June/July - not saying huge demand but better than the 5 pax per 738 they are flying now......there is a lot of pent up demand ready to come back if this is only a couple of months.....
funny i thought it was weird a couple years ago flying MCI-SAN on an E75 with 16/76 on board - i cant imagine a 5 pax on a 320 or 738!
stay safe and we will be back into the sky soon! take care of each other!
Mar 31, 2020, 3:42 pm
#13
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 2,836
Word internally is that they're considering using this as an opportunity to quickly migrate back to an all 737 fleet, meaning quick return of all if the airbus, including the A321s. Despite all the recent investments in interior mods and the operating benefits of the A321s, it's not hard to see how the economics of a single fleet type could be really compelling in this kind of scenario. They'd have some pilot training costs to work through even with significant furloughs, but knowing how this company thinks, I could easily see them choosing to go this direction, especially given how many of the Airbus jets are on short term leases.
Mar 31, 2020, 4:15 pm
#14
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Over the Bay Bridge, CA
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Posts: 38,626
Word internally is that they're considering using this as an opportunity to quickly migrate back to an all 737 fleet, meaning quick return of all if the airbus, including the A321s. Despite all the recent investments in interior mods and the operating benefits of the A321s, it's not hard to see how the economics of a single fleet type could be really compelling in this kind of scenario. They'd have some pilot training costs to work through even with significant furloughs, but knowing how this company thinks, I could easily see them choosing to go this direction, especially given how many of the Airbus jets are on short term leases.
Bet your bottom dollar its a Boeing, Or its not
Just thinking about Tomorrow
Maybe its an Airbus or Embraer
Come what may
Tomorrow, tomorrow, I'm flying tomorrow
On a plane, who knows the make
A Boeing, An Airbus, Embraer, who cares now
Just get me there safely, thanks.♫
Mar 31, 2020, 5:36 pm
#15
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 490
well ya, it’s all fun since we’re As fans. If we knew what was going to happen, we wouldn’t have this thread!