eponymous_coward

I'm skeptical it's going to mean a lot (I would imagine it will be high-priced Y and J similar to *A, not deep discount, perhaps even a cash copay component like on AA for longhaul Y->J), but it's nice to have options.

Presumably AS is going to prefer their partners for specific geos: for instance they don't partner with BA and VS because BA covers the UK sufficiently. If you're trying to funnel AS passengers to Asia presumably you want to use JL and CX not KE. If QR were to set up shop in SEA it might tip the scales (though the EK partnership's worked well for AS, and QR doesn't have the same reach).

Thing is though CX and SQ are pretty competitive. (I also have to think the SIN/HKG-SEA routes are very iffy if there's long term cuts in business travel- significantly less paid J traffic is a bad sign on making a ULH flight profitable, and HKG/SIN aren't taking a lot of business right now.)

ashill

Cranky's article today has some nice discussion of this dynamic, that AS might prefer a oneworld partner to a non-oneworld partner when their useful routes overlap because of the relative ease of oneworld integration. But AS hasn't objected to having overlapping partners in the past (DL/AA, BA/AF/KL, most obviously).

And of course currently, VS isn't a great example because they're nearly-majority-owned by DL.

Mwenenzi

AS will prefer the arrangement that gets them the most $$$$: nothing else being it a OW or non OW airline.
OW is not a merger or a joint venture or a binding agreement to co-operate. Many OW airlines compete head to head: are not that friendly {AB of QR complains at almost everyone}. Many will not even interline checked bags on separate tickets.
Too many in the AS forum are over-thinking OW membership and hoping for gold pennies at the end of the rainbow. Will not happen

eponymous_coward

Probably, It would be hard for QR to replicate what EK does. I will be interested to see if QR does start SEA-DOH at some point though.

Basically I would expect something like new AS redemption/earning charts for new OW airlines, and maybe they'll do something like the CX/BA "multiple OW carriers" chart that's a distance-based chart such that they don't actually have to redo a bunch of charts. CX runs AsiaMiles like that (you either get CX+ a carrier or that other chart). I think they'll make MVP OWR, MVPG OWS and MVPG75K OWE. No change in qualifications and no fourth tier (it would be a lousy time to do it anyway, in the middle of the worst environment for making a profit flying ever). Everything will be fairly straightforward. I would expect IB's awards to be similar to BA/AY. There won't be amazing sweet spots on charts for partners like S7, MH, KA or UL because they'll have learned their lesson on SQ.

If that multiple carrier chart was something like CX's chart and rules that wouldn't be horrible; you can go RTW from North America to Asia+Europe for about 155-165k miles in J, 250-260k in F, five stopovers and multiple open-jaws. Add in Australia and it's more like Zone 12 (so 210k-300k) but that's not out of line with EK J/F redemptions...

edgewood49

Here is what will be interesting to follow is how the airlines and hotels for that matter handle the massive amount of build up of points/miles with basically no usage for at least six to 12 months. I know from my own accounts it's gotten out of hand due to two major trip cancelations etc. Do they keep redemptions as they are / specials etc to first get people on airplanes and or reduce their liability side of the ledger? Given their huge bet ( leverage lending of FFP) it creates an interesting scenario. My best guess is status quo for the first six to 12 months

eponymous_coward

I think a limiting factor is going to be how much longhaul there is to the US. Right now, the schedules are fictional (if you try to book an AS award on BA, it says you're booking a 747 on a lot of routes... BA has of course already permanently retired the 747).

You can't book an award on a route if the service doesn't exist. So if QF is only doing 3x weekly service to the USA to LAX, or CX 3x weekly, and it's on.planes with no F cabin... good luck with an F award on that.

edgewood49

Oh I agree with you. my comment was more global not withstanding capacity as you well pointed out. I have been predicting all along there will be at least a 10% loss in job positions world wide redundancy will be the key operating word in board rooms throughout the world, as for airlines the once pilot shortage has disappeared for better or worse. What I do fear with respect to pilots is many of the senior ones are bailing out, no pun intended leaving many right seaters suddenly in the left seat, again for better or worse. I have some friends flying little younger than I now taking those offers and getting out.

Back to points/upgrade etc I think the airlines collectively want to get people back in their planes and if it is on points then so be it.

freed0m

So long as cash burn is a problem, airlines will not bother with point liability. Premium award availability will be limited. If you want business class, pay cash to upgrade.

eponymous_coward

How limited? I'm not finding it so at all because I'm looking at some award travel at year's end (though as I stated, the schedules are mostly fictional- BA isn't going to be flying 747s). I could literally fly BA in Y, J or F any day I choose to my destination- J and F aren't EVERY day but they are MOST days.

freed0m

But will they actually fly? You can book all you want. But you need a lot of luck to actually fly as booked.

I have several awards cancelled by the partners. No alternatives offered, just straight cancelled.

How limited? Hmmm. Let's check the availability of the next 30days when international long haul flights are actually scheduled. Barring Japanese airlines(is there some Japanese honor not to pull award availability?), I saw non-existent long haul premium award availability.

That said, I would still check and book some long haul premium awards speculatively. That's just because I have too many miles for my use and too much free time to kill. IME, there is less than 10% chance I can actually fly what I have booked since April/May for next year.

dayone

Moderator Note: A friendly reminder that this thread is a discussion of AS joining oneworld, not award redemption or route availability. Thanks.

dayone, AS Moderator

Eastbay1K

The moral of the AS is joining OW is:

1) If you see an award on a partner that you want, get it now. The worst you're out, if you have status, is $25. Even without status, what is it, $125? Don't kick yourself re: "I would have, should have" especially if another partnership divorce occurs.
2) If something better arises later, i.e., mix/match more partners, you can always change it. See above re: the worst you're out. You might even avoid a new partner fee if an agent assists.
3) If you with to continue with the spekyulashens, go on. I will prefer to wait and cry (tears of joy or sorrow) when it becomes reality, and post in the new "How has AS's joining of OW changed your life?" thread

PDXPremier

Since I generally don't redeem miles for partners outside of AS and AA, I really could care less about partner award pricing and/or which partner is part of OW....when the dust settles, my top 3 concerns are:

1. Most Important: AS Mileage Plan remains a traditional, mileage-based program with no revenue requirement (dropping 3K for entry level elite status isn't in my playbook and is the reason I left UA for AS years ago when they went revenue-based)

2. Stopovers on award tickets (at least for AS and AA-international routings) remain: My two "go to" awards are the 5K AS awards like FAT-PDX (long stopover)-BOI or 27.5K international business awards like MCO-PDX (long stopover)-GCM.

3. Ability to get free baggage and MCE seating on AA flights

NWplatinum

I booked one of those QR 5,000 mile J fares. It’s booked for November, but really doubt they’ll allow Americans in to my destination, but I digress.

Anyway, is there a solid date yet on when AS is going to be in OW? This will allow me to better plan the QR flight so I can credit. Right now my travel is for November. Im just curious if we finally have a date of AS officially being in OW?

As far as partners like EK and the rest, I have to imagine they will stay. I am an optimist when it comes to their reward calendars and autonomy with outside OW partners. Heck, EK practically has a great global love affair with QF that has pissed QR off and they’re in the same alliance!

Post COVID it would be great if Alaska could pick up some cheap larger aircraft and use it for an international feeder.

TravelingZoomer

Typically it takes 6-12 months from formal invitation to officially join, so I doubt that they’ll be a part of Oneworld by the end of 2020 when those QR fares expire unfortunately.

Given AS glacial pace history with IT it will be closer to 12 than 6 in my unprofessional speckyulayshun