Global321

Does AA look at this from a predatory viewpoint?

• AS can feed AA international flights in LAX, ORD, JFK and PHL, boosting profitable international routes.
• AA gets better access to SEA, PDX and YVR without adding flights, for now. If feeder routes are profitable and AA sees significant traffic from these airports, AA can add flights later, picking and choosing the profitable ones. If not, AS acts like Envoy or PSA.
• If BA/QR/CX/JL add flights to SEA/PDX and they are busy, it would be easy for AA to add feeder flights and take business from AS.
• Long term, AA could look to buy a weakened AS in the future.

I don't see AS having as many options as AA.

(Not saying one airline is better than the other.)

dcmike

The A330s with the old Envoy seats are not bad - but they're used on the TATL routes from PHL and CLT. I would think from SEA it would be either a 772 or 787.

eponymous_coward

AA is probably more worried about filling their SEA-LHR flight to do SEA/PDX-LHR-XXX than getting SEA-ORD/PHL/JFK-XXX traffic. Plus it's more likely since AS's feed is into SEA/PDX.

For all intents and purposes (remember, AA and BA are TATL JV partners) LHR is an AA hub.

But that's part of the point, AS drives traffic to AA. In return, the middle of the US isn't this giant sucking sound in AS's network, with no way to get there and earn miles.

If it's from an AA hub, that's sort of expected (though for some routes, a SEA/PDX routing is just kind of "I'm a FlyerTalker and I am taking a stupid routing" stupid).

If they're not from AA hubs and as shots across the bow, I don't know if you've heard this, but there's this other small regional airline that flies planes with red triangles on that's interested in flying out of SEA and turning it into a hub. They're a pretty obscure so maybe not.

For some odd and inexplicable reason. AS hasn't collapsed into bankruptcy yet, even though that small regional airline nobody's ever heard of has been pushing into SEA. Goodness! It's almost like WN, AS is used to having contested hubs instead of fortresses like DFW...

(In my opinion, it would be very dumb for AA to turn SEA into DEN with a three way battle for it between AA/AS/DL, because UA would be sitting pretty by itself in SFO and WN would get SJC/SAN, plus DL is kind of taking shots at AA all over their network, everywhere from NYC to MIA to AUS, but whatever, sure, land war in Asia time)

ernestnywang

If the AA/JL TPAC JV is of reference, JL fares allow intra-NA segments to be booked on AA/AS/AC/AM/B6 but AA fares only allow AA.

flatdawgs

Why would you do this if you don't have to? That's backtracking a substantial amount - to Northern Europe LAX/SFO-SEA-XXX (HEL or wherever) is as close as directly flying; it makes no sense to MAD, but the reverse (SEA/PDX flying through LAX/SFO) is completely in the wrong direction.

This isn't to say that IB or AY would actually serve SEA n/s, just that SEA/PDX passengers aren't gaining anything by flying via California to anywhere in Europe, and there are circumstances in which California passengers could transfer at SEA with only the time penalty of the layover. With the much greater service out of LAX and SFO that's often not necessary for them, but if you are in, say, RNO or SMF - sometimes LAS - and have to change planes anyway, via SEA is actually shorter than via SFO or LAX.

Same thing goes, of course, on TPAC flights - most flights from LAX/SFO basically overfly SEA. LAX-SEA-BLR is only about 50 miles more than a putative LAX-BLR flight would be. (Fun fact/bar trivia - SEA is closer than either SFO or LAX to all of Asia, all of Europe, all of Africa save CPT, and even DRW and BME in Australia - and basically the same distance to PER and BNE.)

eponymous_coward

I'm saying you don't have to start SEA service if you're AY. It's not necessary when SEA/PDX have LHR nonstops to feed HEL as a connection, as well as adequate if not ideal SFO/LAX connecting service from HEL. If we're talking HEL-orginating, or connecting traffic where it makes more sense to connect through HEL than LHR, the backtrack isn't ideal, but it's adequate. You probably want to make sure the AA 3rd daily from SEA and the new BA daily from PDX works out before you add more Europe service. So I don't think there's really a business case yet for "All the OW airlines need to start TATL service to SEA, stat" just because AS is joining OW. SEA traffic is pretty seasonal. HEL and MAD are definitely seasonal from the northern USA.

flatdawgs

No doubt about there not being a business case for the European OW airlines starting SEA TATL service right away (if ever) - I do think AY might someday simply because there is a substantial advantage for travel to northern Europe from and via SEA, as opposed to adding 2-3 hours from SEA or PDX via SFO/LAX just in flying time. I also agree that SEA-HEL or MAD are very seasonal -- if AY ever did start a SEA run I would expect it to be no more than seasonal, but I don't see IB ever serving SEA for that reason and because there is little advantage to be gained to MAD traveling via SEA (even if I would personally love that flight). Traveling via LHR is a pain that even with some backtracking might be better avoided via another European airport -- even from HEL, much of northern, central, and eastern Europe are basically as close from SEA via HEL as via LHR and who knows how the UK leaving the EU will affect transiting formalities and the like as opposed to just flying to a Schengen country to begin with.

In that regard, the seemingly weird AA flight SEA-BLR makes sense not only because of the plane they need to use, but because it opens up possibilities from the entire West Coast. I have a close friend in the LA area who is close to and far prefers BUR to LAX, and is an AA elite FF - when she goes to India now, she has to use LAX and fly past SEA to some place in Asia, where she will change planes. Now she'll be able to fly AS directly BUR-SEA and change to the BLR flight there. It actually not only saves her time, but allows her to fly directly from her home airport. There are more than a few European destinations that OW elite flyers in some parts of the Bay Area and Southern California may find more convenient to use AS from BUR, SJC, SAN, or SNA via SEA rather than schlepping to LAX or SFO. I assume that this is the impetus behind the 3rd daily SEA-LHR flight and - you're spot on - they'll definitely want to see how that plays out.

I'm just happy that I can consider Alaska again with the AA tie-up. Traveling to the SE USA as well as internationally from SEA, DL became the default after the AS/AA domestic "split." I like DL but would be quite happy to move a lot of travel back to AS.

FoxCrane

I live in Seattle, and last year I moved all of my flying from AS+partners to DL+partners because the majority of my flying is to Europe (work in tech), and my employer only allows flying in economy. This meant that my MQM haul via British Airways was usually 50% of miles flown; sometimes only 25% of miles flown. This made it very tough to reach meaningful status on AS, but more than enough to make Platinum on DL.

Once AS joins Oneworld, do you think AS will credit at least 1 mile flown = 1 MQM (before any bonus MQMs for status), or will we likely still earn MQM based on a percentage of miles flown (dependent upon booking class)? If the latter, then I'm sticking with DL (and that'd be a shame, as I've got 10+ years as MVP Gold or higher and would like to go back to the AS program).

DMPHL

It will depend on the fare code. If current AA earning on OW partners is any indication, the higher Y fare classes will earn 1 EQM per mile flown, but the lower fare classes will earn anywhere from 0.25-0.5. If you can snag them as Alaska codeshares, however, you'd get full EQM (although sometimes codeshares are only available at the higher fare codes). Does your employer require the lowest fare, or merely an economy fare?

Mwenenzi

AS already has 7 (out of 13) OW airlines (AA, BA, CX, QF, AY, JL and LA) as ff partners. To think/imagine/hope AS will change the earn rate just because of joining OW is not being realistic. Many to most OW ffp's do not earn at 100% on low prices fares/low fare booking class's. With some OW airlines there are fare booking class's that earn nil

WrightHI

Thinking a bit more about this, I'm hoping that it might give AS a nudge to restore an early HNL-SEA flight to feed the evening BA flight along with evening AS flights headed east. I've missed that since it's been gone.

Mwenenzi

AS & BA have been ff partners for years. AS & BA have existing codeshares. Why would "OW" make any significant difference to increasing BA pax?
BA pax can get to HNL via LAX, PHX and other airports BA fly into, on the BA-AA joint venture. The JV is to benefit both airlines (not the pax)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel...tional_Airport
https://mediacentre.britishairways.c...ctsheets-3/199
Great Circle Mapper

ashill

The main difference I guess is alliance lounge access, so BA elites and J passengers would get lounge access in HNL when departing on AS; currently, they only have that when departing on AA. And maybe inclusion in round the world products is a minor factor. But since AS doesn’t see a cut of the long haul segment (only the per segment fraction for operating the HNL-west coast segment), the flight would have to be right on the edge of profitable anyway for this to push it over the edge, I’d think.

Mwenenzi

Lounge access to the AS lounges for the (existing) OW Emerald/Sapphire & business/first class pax will be good.
I expect the exception (no free lounge access) for AA freq flyer with status/first-bus class on USA domestic itineraries to extend to AS. [Lounge access as per the old(new?) AS-AA agreement:- not the more liberal OW access rules]

The main OW RTW tickets are AONEx (first), DONEx(business) and LONEx(Economy). So some adjustment will be needed to the AS fare booking class's or the xONEx tickets to use the AS fare booking class's
https://www.wheretocredit.com/as
https://www.wheretocredit.com/ba
https://www.wheretocredit.com/aa
https://www.wheretocredit.com/qf

AS will get some xONEx business. Especially to Alaska which has always been hard to get with AA, due to limited flights and limited routes.
But the AS cut on say a ~USD$8000 16 segment 5 continent DONE5 30,000 mile trip will not be much

WrightHI

Good heavens. In the finest traditions of Flyertalk, I posted a wish for something that would be useful to me personally. I recognize that AS cut the early flight because they figured they could make more money with a different schedule, and that any Oneworld impact would be marginal, but they must expect some additional business or they wouldn’t bother. But by all means, carry on.