eponymous_coward

AS is 8.42% in May 2018, 9.52% in January 2018 in SAN. It's pretty obvious that the BTS stats aren't using a base of VX+AS for numbers before the merger was final in April 2018.

Oh, hey, look, it's a year later and we're still having the same circular arguments.

Also, no, it is not reasonable to assume what's in bold, because last I checked the combined airline is more than the pmVX customer base. It has to serve a lot more than that. You can't assume the pmAS customer base would be thrilled to lose the ability to upgrade for "free" and walk past some nice leather seats on their way to coach if by "different decisions" you mean "VX was the best airline ever and everything related to pmAS should have been buried in a landfill". You also can't assume there are a bunch of customers eager to buy F on white recliners on SIT-JNU, PDX-SAN or SEA-STL, enough of them such that AS would be profitably giving up some ability to sell coach fares on their 737s.

To put this another way: VX spent most of a decade trying to get market share, and was smaller than G4 when AS bought it. Yeah, THAT Allegiant, the one that flies beater MD80s out of Bismarck.

channa

Sure, it goes both ways. But standardizing is not always the answer.


That might have worked. That operational complexity may have been worthwhile in retrospect.

In the meantime, I'm enjoying a solid upgrade rate on transcons, as well as an obscene amount of bonus miles.

VegasGambler

Good point; I'm sure they lost some pmAS customers too. But, again, these promos are very aggressively trying to win customer loyalty in CA. This isn't like when WN sold a few flights to Hawaii for $49 because it's cheaper (and probably more effective) than paying for a huge media campaign; this is a promo that is good for 8 months and gets you about the cost of your flight back in miles value (if not more), which you can piggyback onto a shortcut to elite status. They are very clearly trying to increase the elite base here. This isn't about getting people to take a few extra flights; it's about getting CA residents to make AS their go-to airline for transcons.

Again, if their customer base has dropped here over the past couple of years, then I think it's pretty clear that they would have been better off not losing those customers in the first place, rather than driving them away and then fighting so hard to get them back (or replace them).

Also, this promo has not been particularly well advertised outside of people who already have AS accounts and got the email, so it seems to me that they are mostly targeting former customers, or occasional customers (rather than potentially new customers). I'll bet that even the FT community (who is very well informed compared to the general population) mostly don't know about it outside of this board.

chrisl137

My impression from my last few transcons is that they're working on making up the loss of AA and DL partners at least as much as (or more than) losing pmVX pax. The planes are going out completely full and I haven't been seeing many people come off the upgrade list into F. People in F are either paying for it or getting upgraded before check-in. The group that's missing is group A - the repeat customers. They call the preboard groups and people board, they call the F group and people board, they call "A" and nobody moves. Then they call "B" and the MVP and PC seats board. They aren't having problems filling planes, but they seem to be trying to develop a loyal customer base out of CA that gets their status by flying AS, rather than mostly flying other carriers and booking their miles to AS because they it's a better FF program. I fly IAD-LAX tomorrow and the upgrade list is only 2 people, with about a dozen in BE waiting for seats, and 8 or 9 seats still selectable.

VegasGambler

Interesting. The last 2 data points I've heard for SFO-BWI are planes that are maybe half-full with easy upgrades as MVP. I know that SFO-NYC tends to be full (and I've never been upgraded on that route -- I'm flying it in 2 weeks but I used GGUs both ways)

I was looking at getting in on an SFO-BWI trip but dates seem to have gone up a lot. My friend flew it 3 weeks ago, paid $250 rt and got upgraded both ways (he is just MVP and that has to be an R fare)

channa

Interesting. I've done fairly well on transcon upgrades as 75K. Our MVP friends are now 3 for 3 on transcon SFO-NYC upgrades to F. 2 of the 3 had open seats in F.

AS Flyer

Just looking at the next two weeks and not one flight is "half full" - there are several that are oversold, with many having a handful (meaning single digit numbers) of seats available. Not one flight comes close at all to being half full.

chrisl137

VegasGambler

How can you tell if a flight is oversold?

Every single SFO-BWI flight for the rest of April is Y7. (There is 1/day except Saturday). 5/1 looks pretty full -- it's only Y2. Still, none of these are oversold. I don't know where you are getting this information from but it's wrong.

RAD_PDX

williwaw

Today is an earnings call, might get some more data on how things are going.

VegasGambler

I was doing the exact same thing because my MVP friends are 3/3 on upgrades in the past month on this route.

I also don't know what happened to the fares. I'm not sure if they were bought during some sale or something but they got them for well under $150 each way for weekend trips in Main. Currently, the cheapest fare that I see on EF which books into main is $166 for R (and that's not an all in price -- it will price at $181 if your can find R space)

The cheapest saver fare expires in June, and the one that's filed with the same code (and August expiration) is $10 more. It looks like sources are steadily rising for this route. I'm not sure if that's seasonal or not. There are no cheaper fares filed for winter yet.

channa

How are you measuring full in F? Some of the Bay Area flights have had very light F loads, AS has been underselling F and overselling Y to compensate. It's not uncommon to see a flight with say 10 open F seats and being F4. Then, as departure gets closer, they start opening up the F inventory to higher numbers.

RAD_PDX

Visconti

Generally, don't really pay attention to Airline CCs; but, after reading this thread, will definitely try to tune in. Looking forward to some of the insights from those here who will analyze the call & data.