2019 First Quarter Investor Update

Old Mar 25, 19, 12:39 pm
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2019 First Quarter Investor Update

Usually Q1 reports seem to be out in April. But there is a presentation up at Investor Relations for AS that is for Q1 of 2019:
http://investor.alaskaair.com/static...4-82bb7a47f6df

Some excerpts of interest based on discussions around here are posted below. Of note: the revenue model for Airbus conversions, and dynamic pricing on PC, and maybe more fees coming down the pipeline.


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Old Mar 25, 19, 12:50 pm
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"Upgraded food & beverage platform" sounds like code for "fancier sounding food that costs less and we can charge more for".
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Old Mar 25, 19, 12:58 pm
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"tighter change fee policy" makes me apprehensive about the waiver for MVPG and 75K ...
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Old Mar 25, 19, 1:16 pm
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Originally Posted by jrl767 View Post
"tighter change fee policy" makes me apprehensive about the waiver for MVPG and 75K ...
Is this perhaps referring to 60+ days change fee waiver being sunset perhaps? Or something else as theorized ..
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Old Mar 25, 19, 1:21 pm
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Originally Posted by jrl767 View Post
"tighter change fee policy" makes me apprehensive about the waiver for MVPG and 75K ...
It's certainly concerning, but in fairness, some of those items are rearward looking. For example, they just raised bag fees on Dec 5, and it seems unlikely that they're planning to do so again in the next couple quarters. So hopefully they're just referring to the change fee updates that occurred during June 2018 and technically didn't take full effect until this month.
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Old Mar 25, 19, 2:49 pm
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Originally Posted by milypan View Post
It's certainly concerning, but in fairness, some of those items are rearward looking. For example, they just raised bag fees on Dec 5, and it seems unlikely that they're planning to do so again in the next couple quarters. So hopefully they're just referring to the change fee updates that occurred during June 2018 and technically didn't take full effect until this month.
The savers fair already eliminated ability to cancel and receive credit for MVPgolds and 75K.
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Old Mar 25, 19, 4:38 pm
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Originally Posted by Xrayman View Post
The savers fair already eliminated ability to cancel and receive credit for MVPgolds and 75K.
Good point, and those are even more recent (and still haven't taken full effect), so hopefully the bullet point refers to changes that have already been made.
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Old Mar 25, 19, 4:43 pm
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Originally Posted by beckoa View Post
Is this perhaps referring to 60+ days change fee waiver being sunset perhaps? ...
as others have mentioned, Saver fares are already making inroads in this direction, but if I'm putting on my cynic's hat and looking ahead a year or two, that's exactly my concern
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Old Mar 25, 19, 5:07 pm
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Originally Posted by jrl767 View Post
as others have mentioned, Saver fares are already making inroads in this direction, but if I'm putting on my cynic's hat and looking ahead a year or two, that's exactly my concern
without ability for elites to have business flexibility then AS is less of value than Delta out of SEA for me. I tolerate the smaller network of city connections and the essentially lack of international. Iím fine with delta frequent flier program that is spend based (AS advantage).
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Old Mar 25, 19, 7:47 pm
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Originally Posted by Xrayman View Post


without ability for elites to have business flexibility then AS is less of value than Delta out of SEA for me. I tolerate the smaller network of city connections and the essentially lack of international. Iím fine with delta frequent flier program that is spend based (AS advantage).
I think this is the key point. If AS nickles and dimes people too much, they will all switch to DL who offers a more comprehensive route network and better transcon product. AS recipe for success has been offering better schedules and reliability, global frequent flyer partnerships and generous elite benefits. Once that goes away, they might as well kiss goodbye any high yield customers.
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Old Mar 25, 19, 8:10 pm
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Originally Posted by sltlyamusd View Post


I think this is the key point. If AS nickles and dimes people too much, they will all switch to DL who offers a more comprehensive route network and better transcon product. AS recipe for success has been offering better schedules and reliability, global frequent flyer partnerships and generous elite benefits. Once that goes away, they might as well kiss goodbye any high yield customers.
With all those devaluation moves against elite flyers, I am already splitting my flying between AS and DL,and getting status on both airlines. I used to fly 80-90% of my flights on AS, but no more. I hope Elite flyers by now should understand AS is just a legacy wannabe, and it's sole motivation is corporate profit, as demanded by Wall Street.

Last edited by BW Flyer; Mar 25, 19 at 8:11 pm Reason: Corrected punctuation
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Old Mar 25, 19, 8:42 pm
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Originally Posted by Xrayman View Post
without ability for elites to have business flexibility then AS is less of value than Delta out of SEA for me. I tolerate the smaller network of city connections and the essentially lack of international. Iím fine with delta frequent flier program that is spend based (AS advantage).
Where in the world are you trying to fly on the regular that AS partners don't fly?
Sure the network isn't the best, but you can get to plenty of places, and a lot of the carriers are top-notch so I'd hardly use the words "essential lack of international"
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Old Mar 25, 19, 10:06 pm
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Originally Posted by _fx View Post
Where in the world are you trying to fly on the regular that AS partners don't fly?
Sure the network isn't the best, but you can get to plenty of places, and a lot of the carriers are top-notch so I'd hardly use the words "essential lack of international"
When I fly to Europe or Asia (twice annually) on delta tin I directly get delta elite status which if I combined with US continental flying I would easily achieve Delta’s highest elite status. I realize that I have to layover in ATL but not an issue. When I fly same route I have to go or ORD on Alaska tin then get on another partner tin to Europe. There is no Alaska tin to Europe or Asia.

Continental US, - how do I get to Charlotte NC on Alaska ? How do I get to Cincinnati on Alaska? Etc......

My point is that I have choices and for now I’m happy with th little inconviences using mostly AS and easily achieving their highest elite status and only needing to get to 75K. Delta is just as easy now a days from Seattle. If I wasn’t on my way to million miles and the high value of the frequent flier plan I would have probably changed years ago. That being said, million miles without any meaningful benefit at the MVP gold standalone status would not likely be a value added reason of this status if diluted.
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Old Mar 25, 19, 10:21 pm
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Originally Posted by _fx View Post
Where in the world are you trying to fly on the regular that AS partners don't fly?
Sure the network isn't the best, but you can get to plenty of places, and a lot of the carriers are top-notch so I'd hardly use the words "essential lack of international"
Um, let me tell you a little story.

A year (or so) ago, I could fly AA/AM/LA/DL to deep South America, which is my most frequent destination, and if I'm not on award travel (once a year), I'm in a paid discounted premium seat. Now, here's what I've got left:

AA - no accruals on the domestic portion of the trip, which can be as severe a hit as SFO/JFK or DFW or MIA.
DL - se fue
AM - se fue
LA - no more COS bonus on discounted J

And there you have it. I went from 4 decent options to essentially none in the course of a year-plus.
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Old Mar 26, 19, 12:18 am
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Originally Posted by Xrayman View Post

Continental US, - how do I get to Charlotte NC on Alaska ? How do I get to Cincinnati on Alaska? Etc......
.
Exactly my issue. As a very long time consecutive gold, I used AA or DL to get to places like Myrtle Beach, SC or Burlington VT or Destin FL. Now I donít get any AS credit for that so itís harder to requalify. I sure wish AS would join one of the big networks like OneWorld, or even Star Aliance. I wonder what the chances of that ever happening are.
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