Finally, a true competitor to Alaska transcon F
Jan 13, 2019, 11:38 am
#46
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Some of the nitpicking in this thread has confused me. My mental model of airline cabins was: International F > International/Transcon J > International Premium Economy = Domestic F > Domestic "Y+" (Y with more leg room) > Y
This ignores older international J with recliners, which obvi still exists but is mostly being phased out.
NB: Looking for general approval on this model, not the regular FT edge-casing of "Akshually Air Tahiti Nui markets recliners as J and I post on r/iamverysmart"
This ignores older international J with recliners, which obvi still exists but is mostly being phased out.
NB: Looking for general approval on this model, not the regular FT edge-casing of "Akshually Air Tahiti Nui markets recliners as J and I post on r/iamverysmart"
Many frequent flyers, and for sure everyone on this thread, looks at the type of seat they are buying when comparing between airlines and aircraft. AS was the only airline selling a domestic F seat on premium transcon routes. UA now has a similar seat. It's an interesting development.
Jan 13, 2019, 1:11 pm
#47
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UA has a roughly similar service, as well, since E+ also includes a meal on the PS routes. F service on AS is definitely better than the E+ service on a US PS flight (better food, constant refills, low passenger to FA ratio), but on paper it looks similar: wide recliner seat and a meal.
Jan 13, 2019, 4:34 pm
#48
Join Date: Oct 2011
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UA's also said the forthcoming MAX 10s, which will start replacing the 752 P.S. next year, will have lie-flats. Moreover, they want to extend the routes offered, including IAD/DCA transcons.
Jan 13, 2019, 6:40 pm
#49
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i also have to wonder if UA would be hurting their own J sales if they have a premium Y product and they are going to vastly expand their premium seat capacity that is available. Do you really, really need a lie flat bed in the middle of the day for a five-six hour flight? Could you get by with a PY one?
Could be fun times for mileage burning or upgrades on cheap fares (or cheap premium fares), though.
AS is probably going to avoid being exposed to that kind of a gunfight given they have 737 knives, not 78J guns. I would think their DCA business is mostly fine given UA can’t just come up with new DCA slots out of nowhere, but they may just do something like 1x IAD 2x EWR out of hubs like SEA/LAX/SFO and call it good.
Last edited by eponymous_coward; Jan 13, 2019 at 6:49 pm
Jan 13, 2019, 6:47 pm
#50
Join Date: Nov 2014
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Since there is some confusion on what "domestic F style" means, below is a picture of the Premium Plus seat UA is now selling for LAX-EWR on scheduled service. UA has confirmed that it will be flying 787-10 LAX/SFO-EWR as an addition to the regular schedule, not just temporarily. Here are the schedules https://www.eturbonews.com/234368/un...787-10-service. These seats will include hot entree and free alcohol.
So no, I am not making a joke. These Premium Plus seats are the apples to apples competitor to the upcoming new AS F, not the lieflats. At some point AS is going to have to match the price they charge for premium route transcon F to reality.
So no, I am not making a joke. These Premium Plus seats are the apples to apples competitor to the upcoming new AS F, not the lieflats. At some point AS is going to have to match the price they charge for premium route transcon F to reality.
Last edited by Tack; Jan 13, 2019 at 6:59 pm
Jan 13, 2019, 7:17 pm
#51
Join Date: Oct 2011
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To be clear the MAX 10s replacing the 752s as EWR-SFO/LAX workhorses are 737s, not 787s. AS is going to have to respond either way if UA follows through and starts upgrading F/J service between EWR-SEA, DCA/IAD-SEA, SFO and on other premium transcons.
Jan 13, 2019, 7:53 pm
#52
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Still, why does UA doing something mean a response must be made when B6 Mint/AA three class has them go “meh, we are DOWNGRADING from the VX F hard product”?
It seems very clear that AS is doing their thing (fleet standardization of F hard product as a little better on non transcon, worse on transcon) and sticking to a plan the same way WN isn’t going to add lieflat F cabins and baggage/change fees just because others are. Bottom line is I think they realize they don’t get a lot of corporate dollars and B6+everyone is crowding them out, so they will work on other things.
Jan 13, 2019, 9:13 pm
#53
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
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Oh. Whoops.
Still, why does UA doing something mean a response must be made when B6 Mint/AA three class has them go “meh, we are DOWNGRADING from the VX F hard product”?
It seems very clear that AS is doing their thing (fleet standardization of F hard product as a little better on non transcon, worse on transcon) and sticking to a plan the same way WN isn’t going to add lieflat F cabins and baggage/change fees just because others are. Bottom line is I think they realize they don’t get a lot of corporate dollars and B6+everyone is crowding them out, so they will work on other things.
Jan 13, 2019, 9:22 pm
#54
Join Date: Apr 2003
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This brings up a good point - why is nobody going on and on about Southwest, and how they can't compete on transcon flights? They've increasingly added more and more long haul flights to their network, yet they don't offer club rooms, a First Class cabin or even airline partners. Still, they manage... But Alaska is going to fail miserably. SMH
WN has very few transcons compared to its size and none from JFK which is the biggest premium market. It is also not surprising that AS has dropped down to 2 flights from SFO-BOS year round—a route which was arguably the most profitable for VX until recent years—-when their product went from the best at the beginning to weaker than the competition since the introduction of Mint, DL’s flights, and UA’s upgraded offerings.
AS also retreated from SFO-FLL when Mint killed the profitability on that. AS is likely to cut more of these premium routes or have to live with much lower margins than VX used to get.
Last edited by sfozrhfco; Jan 13, 2019 at 9:27 pm
Jan 13, 2019, 9:44 pm
#56
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But they obviously have a hub at EWR and have premium service from there to SFO etc. AS is competing on premium routes where the coach fares for much of the year are trash. So the only way for those flights to have any hope of making money is to sell the F seats. That is the whole reason B6 started Mint because they were losing a ton of money offering uncompetitive frequency without a J cabin people would pay a premium for so they completely changed the landscape. Now those routes are the most profitable and the higher frequency has helped make that possible. UA has a huge hub in EWR that can be flying many connecting passengers through EWR paying high international premium cabin fares and high coach international fares to subsidize the premium routes through Newark and where they have no strong competition, they can get away with offering a lower quality product. AS has cut frequency on routes to BOS from SFO and LAX for instance and has not offered an F cabin worth the price compared to the competition either. That is not a long term recipe for success. WN is not adding transcons in these very competitive markets. They still offer very few transcons relative to their size and when they do they don’t have much direct competition. This is just not the case with AS in California. There is much more competition and the coach fares to places like BOS/NYC are relatively low.
AS’s stated competitive response was to fly higher capacity 737s at lower cost but of course that means capturing a greater share of the market which with 1 flight a day to BOS from LAX as one example, they are obviously not going to do. The choice now is to be an unprofitable or low profit bottom feeder on these routes, pull out entirely, or recognize the competitive landscape and up the product/lower the fares/try other routes. AS simply has no pricing power in these kinds of markets.
AS’s stated competitive response was to fly higher capacity 737s at lower cost but of course that means capturing a greater share of the market which with 1 flight a day to BOS from LAX as one example, they are obviously not going to do. The choice now is to be an unprofitable or low profit bottom feeder on these routes, pull out entirely, or recognize the competitive landscape and up the product/lower the fares/try other routes. AS simply has no pricing power in these kinds of markets.
Jan 13, 2019, 10:13 pm
#58
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
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That is simple, WN has no premium transcons and obviously only charges coach prices for coach service. They are not charging J/F prices and pretending they are offering the same product as the competition. AS is often times charging fares equal to or greater than the competition in F for an obviously inferior product. If you set high expectations by charging the same, it is no wonder that any rational person would only choose that option when it is given away as a free upgrade.
WN has very few transcons compared to its size and none from JFK which is the biggest premium market. It is also not surprising that AS has dropped down to 2 flights from SFO-BOS year round—a route which was arguably the most profitable for VX until recent years—-when their product went from the best at the beginning to weaker than the competition since the introduction of Mint, DL’s flights, and UA’s upgraded offerings.
AS also retreated from SFO-FLL when Mint killed the profitability on that. AS is likely to cut more of these premium routes or have to live with much lower margins than VX used to get.
and who cares if AS flies SFO-FLL? If VX got such great margins they'd still be around.
Jan 14, 2019, 8:44 am
#59
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At some point rather than dwelling on the past, you have to face the reality of the present
Jan 14, 2019, 9:29 am
#60
Join Date: Oct 2011
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This brings up a good point - why is nobody going on and on about Southwest, and how they can't compete on transcon flights? They've increasingly added more and more long haul flights to their network, yet they don't offer club rooms, a First Class cabin or even airline partners. Still, they manage... But Alaska is going to fail miserably. SMH
AS likely has higher CASM on transcons due to flying smaller plans, and lower yields, and possibly RASM, due to inability to capture premium coastal traffic outside of SEA.
But like WN, AS's future is one where transcons make up a very small share of ASMs. They'll just keeping pounding SFO-California + Las Vegas with capacity and building up PAE-West Coast long before they'll do something about the front of the plane on their thin transcon schedule.