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Cathay Pacific (CX) Award Redemption, Booking and Availability (2019-2022)

Cathay Pacific (CX) Award Redemption, Booking and Availability (2019-2022)

Old May 18, 2020, 3:13 am
  #1411  
 
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Originally Posted by freed0m
you should worry about availability when it is possible to travel again. That’s what is the hedge.
I am not! You should worry that the validity of the ticket you are hedging now doesn't expire before you can utilize it.

Originally Posted by freed0m
even when it is possible to travel, the number of flights will be reduced. The availability could be less, too as airline prioritise cash over awards.
The number of flights will be reduced because there won't be a demand for them. Not only are you gambling that your flight will operate on your preferred dates in your desired cabin or even a less favorable alternative, you are also gambling on whether or not you can board the flight if there is a flight to board. If you can't enter or transit HKG, CX awards are dead in the water.

Originally Posted by freed0m
as a case study, right after SARS, there was more cheap cash upgrade availability, less award availability.
It will be interesting to see COVID-19 as a case study once it is under control. That is a long time off.

What do we know about SARS?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) appeared in 2002 and quickly spread around the world. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported that 8,098 people were infected in 26 countries, and that 774 died. (Other sources report slightly different numbers.)

Hong Kong was among the first cities affected by SARS, and its healthcare community suffered greatly from the disease. Some lessons from their experiences included recognition of the value of real-time information in a rapidly progressing epidemic with a large number of cases and the need for frequent patient updates, challenges of national efforts to maintain entry and exit health screening among international travelers, and implementation of home quarantine as an effective tool to interrupt SARS transmission.

Don't you think Hong Kong is in a "once bit, twice shy" situation?

I don't have to remind you of the COVID-19 numbers but I think we can both agree that COVID-19 is of a magnitude much greater than SARS.

SARS had significantly less impact on the airline industry than COVID-19 has and will continue to have.

Cheap upgrades, no award availability you say? Cash will be king when airlines are able to resume their scaled down versions of themselves. Attracting business travel will be a struggle; there will be less of that. Incentivizing leisure travelers with cheaper premium fares to fill seats in lieu of awards makes sence, but the can't/won't cut them off completely.

I value MP Miles at 2 cpm because that is what you can buy them for. A CX LAX-HKG return in J requires 100,000 Miles and about $150 in fees & taxes, ~$2150 in total? When it is possible to fly again, if the revenue fare, which comes with EQM & RDM is less than $2150, why would I want to redeem for an award?

As a UA Premiere platinum, I am tempted to book an itinerary for November, LAX-CPT. The K class ticket has a base fare of $47 return, $550 all-in. I can choose E+ at booking. It bypasses Europe and the Middle East. I think South Africa will open up long before HKG will.

James
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Old May 18, 2020, 3:42 am
  #1412  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Programs: Alaska
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Originally Posted by Flying for Fun
I am not! You should worry that the validity of the ticket you are hedging now doesn't expire before you can utilize it.



The number of flights will be reduced because there won't be a demand for them. Not only are you gambling that your flight will operate on your preferred dates in your desired cabin or even a less favorable alternative, you are also gambling on whether or not you can board the flight if there is a flight to board. If you can't enter or transit HKG, CX awards are dead in the water.
It is $12.5 risk with cancellation fee waiver. At worst, I just cancel and lose $12.5. There is no additional risk with my preferred dates or my preferred cabin, or ticket validity.


Cheap upgrades, no award availability you say? Cash will be king when airlines are able to resume their scaled down versions of themselves. Attracting business travel will be a struggle; there will be less of that. Incentivizing leisure travelers with cheaper premium fares to fill seats in lieu of awards makes sence, but the can't/won't cut them off completely.

I value MP Miles at 2 cpm because that is what you can buy them for. A CX LAX-HKG return in J requires 100,000 Miles and about $150 in fees & taxes, ~$2150 in total? When it is possible to fly again, if the revenue fare, which comes with EQM & RDM is less than $2150, why would I want to redeem for an award?

As a UA Premiere platinum, I am tempted to book an itinerary for November, LAX-CPT. The K class ticket has a base fare of $47 return, $550 all-in. I can choose E+ at booking. It bypasses Europe and the Middle East. I think South Africa will open up long before HKG will.

James
SARS has a severe impact on air travel in Asia back then. It was cheaper cash upgrade, not cheaper premium tickets(ticket wasn't cheaper, just like now). Those upgrades were offered during check-in or just days before departure. Miles credit is likely based on original book class. So not really mileage arbitrage.

$550 is a significant higher risk than $12.5. I will only selectively book those "error fare" level tickets in destinations i would like to go to.
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Old May 18, 2020, 9:38 am
  #1413  
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Originally Posted by freed0m
It is $12.5 risk with cancellation fee waiver. At worst, I just cancel and lose $12.5. There is no additional risk with my preferred dates or my preferred cabin, or ticket validity.
Assuming you are MVPG or that Alaska still has COVID-related ticket cancellation fee waivers at the time you book and cancel. Right now the waiver only covers pre-May 31 tickets and that date hasn't moved in a while.

Originally Posted by freed0m
It was cheaper cash upgrade, not cheaper premium tickets(ticket wasn't cheaper, just like now). Those upgrades were offered during check-in or just days before departure. Miles credit is likely based on original book class. So not really mileage arbitrage.
The problem's going to be on awards getting award availability to line up on multiple segments during rebooking, or getting to your original destination; what is VERY likely to happen is travel that used to be XXX(USA)-HKG-YYY(somewhere CX serves) may turn into XXX-QQQ(USA- CX dropped XXX-HKG, QQQ is their new NA gateway)-HKG-ZZZ (alternate destination CX still serves because they dropped HKG-YYY). Imagine that there's now also 12-16 hour stopovers that turned a fairly straightforward (if long) trip halfway around the world into a multi-day slog through airports. Yes, CX's HKG's lounges are fine. It's still going to turn travel into more of a grind even if you're in F/J if you're killing multiple days to get to India, South Africa, SE Asia, etc.

This may not be a problem for you in Asia if you're booking CX and do not care about getting to a CX North American gateway, but AS's primary customer base is North American.
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Old May 18, 2020, 12:05 pm
  #1414  
 
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By hedging, I mean booking multiple premium class award trips, in the hope I will be able to utilize some percentage of them, if not all of them. Also hedging whether those same itineraries will be available when flights are confirmed due to greater demand. If I have a confirmed EK F seat that gets cancelled, my experience is AS and EK will work to get it reaccomodated on another route. Same for CX, QF, SQ, JL, AA. I agree there will be lots of great deals for paid premium travel, but frankly I have too many miles and need to begin burning them, not earning more. Just reinstating my award cancellations this year has put 2MM back into my accounts, and my airline account balances are now considerably higher than that. Too high, especially if real economics are allowed to happen and several carriers go out of business. YMMV.
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Old May 18, 2020, 12:05 pm
  #1415  
 
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Originally Posted by freed0m
It is $12.5 risk with cancellation fee waiver. At worst, I just cancel and lose $12.5. There is no additional risk with my preferred dates or my preferred cabin, or ticket validity.
With recent datapoints of people getting the partner fee refunded too, your risk might be zero. Just remember to cancel your itinerary before it expires.

Originally Posted by freed0m
SARS has a severe impact on air travel in Asia back then. It was cheaper cash upgrade, not cheaper premium tickets(ticket wasn't cheaper, just like now). Those upgrades were offered during check-in or just days before departure. Miles credit is likely based on original book class. So not really mileage arbitrage.
Yes, SARS severely impacted Asia but it didn't shut down international & domestic aviation around the world for months on end! A temporary hospital wasn't built in Central Park either. When travel is possible, the industry will be very much different than it was after SARS. Trying to extrapolate the later from the former, IMHO, is reckless. I couldn't find any data on the effect the Spanish Flu, had on transoceanic widebody aviation.

Originally Posted by freed0m
$550 is a significant higher risk than $12.5. I will only selectively book those "error fare" level tickets in destinations i would like to go to.
I visit Capetown at least twice a year. I have a good friend there. I was supposed to be going back in April. Of course, that didn't happen. CX can't get me there. If fact, CX can't get me nor you anywhere until further notice. Unfortunately with HKG, that notice will be a long time coming for North America. When it does, how many hoops will you have to jump through, how many tests you will need to take, how many hours will it take to clear entry? Will you be comfortable with every move you make being tracked?

If both fares are refundable on airline initiated cancellations, how is the risk different? No need to answer. We view HKG differently, which is perfectly fine. HKG has the added stress of civil unrest and protests are still going on during COVID-19. I will wait to see if HKG is a place I will want to return to or transit through and book CX awards accordingly when lottery tickets look more like airline tickets.

Not everyone is long on MP miles and can book multiple itineraries speculatively. I don't think knowing what AS MP looks like as a OW partner before being able to travel to HKG is out of the realm of possibility. On that note, I think we have exausted our viewpoints; at least, I have mine. I hope your hedge is fruitful.

James
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Last edited by Flying for Fun; May 18, 2020 at 12:28 pm
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Old May 18, 2020, 8:52 pm
  #1416  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
Assuming you are MVPG or that Alaska still has COVID-related ticket cancellation fee waivers at the time you book and cancel. Right now the waiver only covers pre-May 31 tickets and that date hasn't moved in a while.



The problem's going to be on awards getting award availability to line up on multiple segments during rebooking, or getting to your original destination; what is VERY likely to happen is travel that used to be XXX(USA)-HKG-YYY(somewhere CX serves) may turn into XXX-QQQ(USA- CX dropped XXX-HKG, QQQ is their new NA gateway)-HKG-ZZZ (alternate destination CX still serves because they dropped HKG-YYY). Imagine that there's now also 12-16 hour stopovers that turned a fairly straightforward (if long) trip halfway around the world into a multi-day slog through airports. Yes, CX's HKG's lounges are fine. It's still going to turn travel into more of a grind even if you're in F/J if you're killing multiple days to get to India, South Africa, SE Asia, etc.

This may not be a problem for you in Asia if you're booking CX and do not care about getting to a CX North American gateway, but AS's primary customer base is North American.
The primary motive is to lock N.A. to HKG for CX. Whether you are based in Asia or US, it is not that different. I am fine with taking economy, even budget airlines within Asia.
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Old May 18, 2020, 9:20 pm
  #1417  
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
Assuming you are MVPG or that Alaska still has COVID-related ticket cancellation fee waivers at the time you book and cancel. Right now the waiver only covers pre-May 31 tickets and that date hasn't moved in a while.



The problem's going to be on awards getting award availability to line up on multiple segments during rebooking, or getting to your original destination; what is VERY likely to happen is travel that used to be XXX(USA)-HKG-YYY(somewhere CX serves) may turn into XXX-QQQ(USA- CX dropped XXX-HKG, QQQ is their new NA gateway)-HKG-ZZZ (alternate destination CX still serves because they dropped HKG-YYY). Imagine that there's now also 12-16 hour stopovers that turned a fairly straightforward (if long) trip halfway around the world into a multi-day slog through airports. Yes, CX's HKG's lounges are fine. It's still going to turn travel into more of a grind even if you're in F/J if you're killing multiple days to get to India, South Africa, SE Asia, etc.

This may not be a problem for you in Asia if you're booking CX and do not care about getting to a CX North American gateway, but AS's primary customer base is North American.
Agreed on all of the above, and currently it's only The Wing. Unless I'm mistaken, The Pier, Bridge & Deck are all closed.
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Old May 19, 2020, 7:26 pm
  #1418  
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Moderator Note: Any mention of COVID is like laying a land mine. A few off-topic posts (and a pretty map) have been blown up.

dayone, AS Moderator
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Old May 19, 2020, 8:30 pm
  #1419  
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Originally Posted by freed0m
The primary motive is to lock N.A. to HKG for CX. Whether you are based in Asia or US, it is not that different. I am fine with taking economy, even budget airlines within Asia.
Yes, but what if you’re looking at ORD and CX decides they’re not restarting service there anytime soon, and your AS legs are something requiring overnights through SEA? I would imagine NYC/LAX/SFO/YVR are safest, but anywhere where CX is at 1x daily or less is very likely at serious risk of not coming back anytime soon if it’s December 2020 and traffic to HKG is somewhere around 10-30% of what it once was. And I don’t think that’s unreasonable: my Fortune 500 multinational has basically kissed off business travel and conferences for 2020. CX isn’t going to restart their network for a bunch of AS miles redemptions.

If you have infinite flexibility and don’t mind turning these into multi-day treks... I suppose.

Last edited by eponymous_coward; May 19, 2020 at 8:37 pm
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Old May 19, 2020, 11:19 pm
  #1420  
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
Yes, but what if you’re looking at ORD and CX decides they’re not restarting service there anytime soon, and your AS legs are something requiring overnights through SEA? I would imagine NYC/LAX/SFO/YVR are safest, but anywhere where CX is at 1x daily or less is very likely at serious risk of not coming back anytime soon if it’s December 2020 and traffic to HKG is somewhere around 10-30% of what it once was. And I don’t think that’s unreasonable: my Fortune 500 multinational has basically kissed off business travel and conferences for 2020. CX isn’t going to restart their network for a bunch of AS miles redemptions.

If you have infinite flexibility and don’t mind turning these into multi-day treks... I suppose.

Maybe let's say this way. I have a planned trip. ORD-BKK for next March. I can choose to book it now as CX awards, ORD-HKG-BKK. Next March, CX cancels ORD-HKG.

1. CX does nothing or protects me with transfer I don't like, I can cancel the awards for $12.5 with $125 cancellation fee waiver. Cancellation fee waiver is important and everyone who has it now being MVPG and above, still has it next March as AS has extended elite status for a year.
2. CX protects me with a transfer I would like to book.

The risk is only $12.5. But there is considerable risk that there would be no award availability.
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Old May 20, 2020, 6:23 pm
  #1421  
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Originally Posted by freed0m
Maybe let's say this way. I have a planned trip. ORD-BKK for next March. I can choose to book it now as CX awards, ORD-HKG-BKK. Next March, CX cancels ORD-HKG.

1. CX does nothing or protects me with transfer I don't like, I can cancel the awards for $12.5 with $125 cancellation fee waiver. Cancellation fee waiver is important and everyone who has it now being MVPG and above, still has it next March as AS has extended elite status for a year.
CX can’t protect you on an AS ticket if they drop service to ORD, they don’t get to touch the ticket until day of flight (it’s AS’s ticket, not CX’s) and they also can’t just yank AS or AA space to do with as they please. AS isn’t going to put AA and CX on the same ticket.

Odds are VERY good that CX is just going to cut service to a bunch of US destinations and frequencies, and switch from 77Ws to A350s with no F cabins, well in advance of March. At which point you get to fix the itinerary (which may turn into some clunky ORD-SEA-LAX-HKG-BKK with an overnight in SEA or LAX, enjoy your hotel stay) or refund. If you don’t mind playing a lottery ticket that’s fine, but normal human beings who don’t live on FT probably don’t want their 20 hours of flying to turn into 30-40. If you’re doing a two week vacation in Thailand and your flights to get there and back are now going to be 3-4 days of that, it might discourage you. Not all of us are travel blogger digital nomads...
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Old May 20, 2020, 7:48 pm
  #1422  
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
CX can’t protect you on an AS ticket if they drop service to ORD, they don’t get to touch the ticket until day of flight (it’s AS’s ticket, not CX’s) and they also can’t just yank AS or AA space to do with as they please. AS isn’t going to put AA and CX on the same ticket.

Odds are VERY good that CX is just going to cut service to a bunch of US destinations and frequencies, and switch from 77Ws to A350s with no F cabins, well in advance of March. At which point you get to fix the itinerary (which may turn into some clunky ORD-SEA-LAX-HKG-BKK with an overnight in SEA or LAX, enjoy your hotel stay) or refund. If you don’t mind playing a lottery ticket that’s fine, but normal human beings who don’t live on FT probably don’t want their 20 hours of flying to turn into 30-40. If you’re doing a two week vacation in Thailand and your flights to get there and back are now going to be 3-4 days of that, it might discourage you. Not all of us are travel blogger digital nomads...
hmmm.
I vaguely remember that CX did protect folks when it cut routes before COVID-19 became so big. CX would attach revised routes in original ticket and AS just need reissue the ticket. I will try to find them later.

If the person still goes as planned and ends with some lousy routes, he/she will get those lousy routes anyway. right? Whether he/she booked CX AS award in advance does not matter. If the person wants to fly CX F with certainty, he/she should book cash tickets with CX.

The $12.5 downside is a great gift from AS. It all depends on how you utilize it.
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Old May 20, 2020, 9:18 pm
  #1423  
 
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Originally Posted by freed0m
hmmm.
I vaguely remember that CX did protect folks when it cut routes before COVID-19 became so big. CX would attach revised routes in original ticket and AS just need reissue the ticket. I will try to find them later.
It was me! Earlier departure, same day flight. I guess my pretty map blew up, but it wasn't day one! lol 🤣 Don't book any non-refundable hotel stays.

James

EDIT: I should clarify that the flight was during the earlier stages of COVID-19. I also had a revenue CX for April 3rd, LAX-HKG-SIN inbound, outbound already flown. That was changed to two days earlier. I cancelled and they refunded the unused coupons.

Last edited by Flying for Fun; May 20, 2020 at 11:06 pm
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Old May 31, 2020, 1:06 am
  #1424  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
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Transiting HK on separate bookings?

Hi, I have an award itinerary MEL-HKG / HKG-AMS for July 2020. Due to Alaska award ticket rules, it had to be ticketed as 2 separate awards: given HK new transit restrictions (all travel has to be in one ticket) is there any way / option for Alaska to reissue the tickets under one PNR? Thanks
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Old May 31, 2020, 2:28 am
  #1425  
 
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Originally Posted by Mister P.
Hi, I have an award itinerary MEL-HKG / HKG-AMS for July 2020. Due to Alaska award ticket rules, it had to be ticketed as 2 separate awards: given HK new transit restrictions (all travel has to be in one ticket) is there any way / option for Alaska to reissue the tickets under one PNR? Thanks
Unfortunately not. All AS awards on CX break at HKG unless you are continuing on to North America or flying inter-Asia. HKG<->Europe is available as a standalone award only so two awards are required if originating from anywhere outside HKG, North America included. AS can't reissue a ticket on one PNR since Australia-Europe isn't a valid route for awards.

CX is only flying to SYD right now, have you confirmed that your MEL-HKG flight will operate?

James
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