Revenue Management Follies--Method or Madness?
Nov 30, 2018, 12:32 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Portland, Oregon, USA
Programs: AA ExPlat, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 909
Revenue Management Follies--Method or Madness?
Looking for a seat LAX-PDX on a Saturday in February. Checking 75K upgrade (haha) eligible fares, which are the two middle columns. The left column is "Main" cabin. The far right is F. Connecting from Asia with scheduled 5pm arrival. Here is what I found:
Can anyone top this? Hell, anyone want to take a crack at explaining it?
Can anyone top this? Hell, anyone want to take a crack at explaining it?
Last edited by mczlaw; Nov 30, 2018 at 1:09 am
Nov 30, 2018, 7:23 am
#2
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,844
AS has an all knowing IT system. They know as a 75K member you need that flight and may be blindly loyal. Why not jack up the fare to help achieve greater profitability? 😀
Nov 30, 2018, 7:39 am
#3
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: SEA
Programs: AS MVP , Delta Gold Medallion, "Credit Card" status for various hotels
Posts: 672
I can explain it. I’m presuming that would be Saturday February 23, which is the Saturday after Presidents’ Day. Lots of pacific NW school districts get the whole week off, and people start funneling back from their Mexico beach vacations via lax on Saturday night. Sunday can often be even worse. Check the lax to sea flights that day and it looks similar.
This same pricing phenomenon happens during the rolling spring break in late March and early April. It’s not a fare mistake, sadly.
This same pricing phenomenon happens during the rolling spring break in late March and early April. It’s not a fare mistake, sadly.
Nov 30, 2018, 9:07 am
#4
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Pacific Wonderland
Programs: ʙᴏɴᴠo̱ʏ Au, IHG Au, HH Dia, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred
Posts: 5,336
Presuming its 2/23, nothing below full Y on that flight:
F7 D7 P6 U0 A0 Y7 Z7 S0 B0 M0 H0 Q0L0 V0 K0 G0 T0 R0 X7 N0 W0 E0
ETA: I see X7 is also open. So you can buy “Saver” on an underlying refundable fare but all of the Saver restrictions then? At least it should still be eligible for CoS bonus...
F7 D7 P6 U0 A0 Y7 Z7 S0 B0 M0 H0 Q0L0 V0 K0 G0 T0 R0 X7 N0 W0 E0
ETA: I see X7 is also open. So you can buy “Saver” on an underlying refundable fare but all of the Saver restrictions then? At least it should still be eligible for CoS bonus...
Nov 30, 2018, 9:13 am
#5
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 10,904
You just beat me to it 
That is full fare Y -- a refundable ticket. The price is not crazy for a refundable ticket. The real question is, why is there no availability for lower booking classes? There seems to be a lot of Y space (it's not just the last few seats)
Obviously they think that they will sell enough Y to make it worth their while.
That is full fare Y -- a refundable ticket. The price is not crazy for a refundable ticket. The real question is, why is there no availability for lower booking classes? There seems to be a lot of Y space (it's not just the last few seats)
Obviously they think that they will sell enough Y to make it worth their while.
Nov 30, 2018, 9:18 am
#6
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 10,904
I don't think that's how it works. Each published X fare has an underlying booking code. In order to ticket it you need both the X and the underlying booking code. Theoretically they could publish an X fare for Y but they don't.
Nov 30, 2018, 9:22 am
#7
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Pacific Wonderland
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Nov 30, 2018, 9:36 am
#10
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Portland, Oregon, USA
Programs: AA ExPlat, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 909
Sorry about that, folks. I meant to illustrate that the Sunday fares don't even approach the $400 mark. Whether the $439 fare on 2/23 is mistake or simply egregious gouging, that is the question...In any event, I can overnight, pay for a nice hotel, fly home Sunday and still not pay as much as that 2/23 8:30 flight...
Nov 30, 2018, 9:41 am
#11
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
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There are hundreds if not thousands of these threads published about AS and every other air carrier in the world. They all revolve around a central theme, e.g. that the air carrier is nuts to sell Ticket X for $Y. The post then accuses the carrier of "gouging" for charging what a purely market-driven system sets the price at. It's not gouging.
AS has multi-million dollar software to set RM/IM and therefore pricing based on hundreds of factors. None of us have that.
Could be some of the reasons from above and could be something else. Bottom line is that February is a long way off and if AS has any reasonable belief that someone will pay the asking price that far away, why on earth sell it for less. If it turns out that AS can't sell at that price, it will sell into a lower fare bucket. Also, don't forget that many people flying this route are connecting at LAX so they are not buying the segment fare you are looking at.
For you it's a crap shoot. Could be that the price drops or could be that the flight sells out.
AS has multi-million dollar software to set RM/IM and therefore pricing based on hundreds of factors. None of us have that.
Could be some of the reasons from above and could be something else. Bottom line is that February is a long way off and if AS has any reasonable belief that someone will pay the asking price that far away, why on earth sell it for less. If it turns out that AS can't sell at that price, it will sell into a lower fare bucket. Also, don't forget that many people flying this route are connecting at LAX so they are not buying the segment fare you are looking at.
For you it's a crap shoot. Could be that the price drops or could be that the flight sells out.
Nov 30, 2018, 9:56 am
#13
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Sorry about that, folks. I meant to illustrate that the Sunday fares don't even approach the $400 mark. Whether the $439 fare on 2/23 is mistake or simply egregious gouging, that is the question...In any event, I can overnight, pay for a nice hotel, fly home Sunday and still not pay as much as that 2/23 8:30 flight...
Nov 30, 2018, 1:13 pm
#15
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: ANC
Programs: Alaska 100k
Posts: 1,012
The other day I was hunting for a LAX-SEA flight and everything was ~$70 the whole day EXCEPT for the horrible redeye (midnight-3a) which was only available in full Y. I fly that terrible flight somewhat frequently and many times I'm the only one who isn't an AS employee heading home. So RM does weird stuff sometimes.