AS must be using that "new math"

Old Oct 10, 2018, 9:44 am
  #1  
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AS must be using that "new math"

U class availability has fallen off a cliff to where it's barely of any use anymore, but at least the numbers sort of matched up in terms of the point between econ and F. I've long since switched over to another carrier for various reasons, but in those instances where AS is the better choice for a trip, I've noticed lately that even their rate charts are all messed up. Here's a great example - the non-guaranteed U rate....more than F fare. I've also noticed that they're feathering up the aggressiveness of the F arbitrage, as there are a LOT of F seats available in these flights showing only a few left.

Did a dispensary open up across the street from where AS keeps its actuaries?

Random aside: When did they start charging golds/75's for the enhanced seating? I noticed on this rez they wanted to charge $45 a seat for row 6. I don't know if I've been paying that for some length of time and I just never noticed the fee or if it's new - last time I remember reading about it, the fee only applied to non-elites.

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Old Oct 10, 2018, 10:18 am
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Theyre not charging 75Ks for Row 6, just Golds. Technically Row 6 is an upgrade for anyone, but 75Ks qualify for an instant upgrade on any booking class. IIRC Golds do not qualify for instant upgrade on the two or three lowest booking classes, and would need to wait for the upgrade list to process closer to departure.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 10:22 am
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Originally Posted by milypan
Theyre not charging 75Ks for Row 6, just Golds. Technically Row 6 is an upgrade for anyone, but 75Ks qualify for an instant upgrade on any booking class. IIRC Golds do not qualify for instant upgrade on the two or three lowest booking classes, and would need to wait for the upgrade list to process closer to departure.
They must have feathered the fee in - I was but a gold when they started doing premium seating, and there was no fee back then.

Running the math, even the "first class upgrade" section is more expensive than just paying it out of pocket in seat selection. The fee came out to $45 a person including taxes, but there's a $48 difference between MC and PCU in their chart.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 10:25 am
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GTR fares are not eligible for immediate upgrade to premium class (row 6-10 on Boeing) for Gold.
Details are here: https://www.alaskaair.com/content/mi...rship-benefits

To explain the F Upgrade fare being more expensive:
Instant upgrade fares are based on the highest published economy fares (YSBMZ). You aren't purchasing First Class - you are purchasing an expensive economy-class ticket and getting a free upgrade to F. It is designed this way to reward customers who have to purchase the most expensive fares (travel policy, booking late, etc).
Alaska will sometimes run first class sales (sold as P fares) which are not necessarily based on the expensive economy fare price (those don't really go on sale). This creates a situation where the upgrade fare is more expensive than the F fare.

The U availability is a separate issue too:
Since the VX acquisition, they seem to be withholding U availability because of the Airbus with 8F seats being in the fleet now. Many times, I've seen an F cabin "sold out" only to have 8 people upgraded at the gate. They are probably trying to avoid an oversold F cabin in case an airbus gets swapped in.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 10:29 am
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Originally Posted by Quintious
They must have feathered the fee in - I was but a gold when they started doing premium seating, and there was no fee back then.

Running the math, even the "first class upgrade" section is more expensive than just paying it out of pocket in seat selection. The fee came out to $45 a person including taxes, but there's a $48 difference between MC and PCU in their chart.
The fee and upgrade structure was announced at the same time as Premium class. Upgrade policy started January 1, 2017, if I recall correctly. You may have been purchasing fares above GTR if you haven't seen it since then.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 10:44 am
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Originally Posted by sturges
GTR fares are not eligible for immediate upgrade to premium class (row 6-10 on Boeing) for Gold.
Details are here: https://www.alaskaair.com/content/mi...rship-benefits


The U availability is a separate issue too:
Since the VX acquisition, they seem to be withholding U availability because of the Airbus with 8F seats being in the fleet now. Many times, I've seen an F cabin "sold out" only to have 8 people upgraded at the gate. They are probably trying to avoid an oversold F cabin in case an airbus gets swapped in.
Interesting that they're doing it across the board. I run that SEA>DEN route a lot (so much so that I can secure gold on AS even though almost (90%+) all of my other domestic revenue goes to DL and Mint now), and there has never been an Airbus at C39 (AS's only gate at the airport, at least since they killed the DEN>LAX route). Frankly, it makes me much less likely to fly them at all, save for the fact that there's not a lot of competition in the SEA>DEN space.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 12:07 pm
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Originally Posted by Quintious
there has never been an Airbus at C39 (AS's only gate at the airport, at least since they killed the DEN>LAX route).
DEN-SFO, that is the route they cut in early June. I have occasionally seen an A320 on the schedule for SEA-DEN, but I doubt it will happen until VX crew get stationed in SEA or while heavy loads for ski season require bigger planes.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 12:24 pm
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It's not new. Every so often this is regularly remarked on by various FlyerTalk Armchair VPs for Revenue Management, who rediscover this all the time.

More $ for MVP75 F upgrade than for F

Note that in that thread, UA and DL also apparently have dispensaries next to their corporate HQs.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 12:32 pm
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I think there is merit to the statement AS is withholding F for sale due to the chances of an aircraft swap. I've seen a couple planes go from F0 to F7 the day before departure and the F seat map (not a good indicator) was not full. Now this may have been folks changing plans last minute, but interesting to speculate.
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 5:55 pm
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With all the fall/winter fare sales, most of which are probably G T R fares, I've seen a lot of instances of premium upgrade at booking being an increase in the $20-$40 range to a qualifying fare as a Gold.

Depending on the distance of the flight, and how much drinking I plan to do before arriving at the destination, I may or may not pay for the immediate upgrade instead of taking my chances with an R fare at the end of the line during the upgrade window
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Old Oct 10, 2018, 7:20 pm
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Fwiw, I did clear on Friday's MCO/SFO flight. Dunno how, as SEA/SFO had 11 open in F (vs 5 to MCO) and that didn't clear...
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Old Oct 11, 2018, 8:09 am
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Originally Posted by beckoa
I think there is merit to the statement AS is withholding F for sale due to the chances of an aircraft swap. I've seen a couple planes go from F0 to F7 the day before departure and the F seat map (not a good indicator) was not full. Now this may have been folks changing plans last minute, but interesting to speculate.
There are some markets in which AS knows they historically don't sell much F where they will block out F and try to oversell Y (by the same number of seats) until 24 or 48 hours before departure. I see this most often on E175s. (PMVX did this too)

To the OP, when the fare page says "x seats left at $yyy" that doesn't mean there are only x seats left in that cabin of service, just x seats at that price (i.e. in that fare class). So it could well be F6P2 with six (or more open on the F seatmap) and say "only 2 seats left at $549" without being in violation of their FAA-mandated substance policies
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Old Oct 11, 2018, 8:25 am
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Originally Posted by Quintious
I've also noticed that they're feathering up the aggressiveness of the F arbitrage, as there are a LOT of F seats available in these flights showing only a few left.
As I understand it, the "number of seats" refers to the number at that price. There may be additional seats at a higher price (e.g., an F vs. a P).

As a relative newcomer to AS, I've noticed their inventory/pricing algorithms do not seem very sophisticated, and they are likely leaving money on the table.
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Old Oct 11, 2018, 11:37 am
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Originally Posted by Kacee
they are likely leaving money on the table.
As a purchaser of AS fares, I can't say I'm unhappy with this statement.
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Old Oct 11, 2018, 1:17 pm
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Originally Posted by Kacee
... they are likely leaving money on the table.
Originally Posted by rustykettel
As a purchaser of AS fares, I can't say I'm unhappy with this statement.
agreed, but as someone who wants to continue flying AS, I hope they don’t overdo it with this
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