Impact of RDU-SFO schedule change?
#4
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2001
Programs: DL 1 million, AA 1 mil, HH lapsed Diamond, Marriott Plat
Posts: 28,190
The profitable (threshold cost of capital) mainline domestic flight with a 23% load factor is a myth. The mix of F and full Y is never that high. Don't believe me? Point us to the AA/UA/DL/AS flight that averages 23% load factor on an ongoing basis.
#6
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Portland, Oregon
Programs: Hilton Platinum, Alaska MVP Gold
Posts: 2,363
Man, Alaska really needs to find flights from airports other than Seattle that work if it wants to be something more than a single airport airline other than the core PDX to California, Las Vegas, and Hawaii routes.
I really think the thing that has hurt Alaska the most is losing American and Delta as partners. Many of those customers are now connecting through other hubs to their formerly Alaska destinations.
I really think the thing that has hurt Alaska the most is losing American and Delta as partners. Many of those customers are now connecting through other hubs to their formerly Alaska destinations.
#7
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: San Francisco, CA USA // UA 1K 2 Million Miler, AA EXP 2MM, HH Diamond, SPG Plat // Easily found on SFO-ORDs
Posts: 2,726
I flew SFO-MCO earlier this week. F was full (largely upgrades) and Y had maybe 30 pax. I know school's now largely back in session and it's not a desirable time of year to visit MCO, but I was struck by just how empty the flight was. I wonder if VX did better filling those seats than AS is.
#9
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Programs: HH Gold, AA Gold
Posts: 10,457
Man, Alaska really needs to find flights from airports other than Seattle that work if it wants to be something more than a single airport airline other than the core PDX to California, Las Vegas, and Hawaii routes.
I really think the thing that has hurt Alaska the most is losing American and Delta as partners. Many of those customers are now connecting through other hubs to their formerly Alaska destinations.
I really think the thing that has hurt Alaska the most is losing American and Delta as partners. Many of those customers are now connecting through other hubs to their formerly Alaska destinations.
#10
Original Poster
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Chapel Hill, NC
Programs: UA GS; Former Alaska MVPG75/DL Diamond/NW Platinum/BA Gold
Posts: 942
Another data point (SFO→RDU yesterday): looked like ~50 passengers (I forgot to ask for the real count from the gate agent). Most passengers had a half row to themselves, with a few rows completely empty toward the back.
Load on this route in the spring and summer was much higher -- 80-90 percent, and full on peak days. I'm sure part of the drop is seasonal, but I'm wondering how much is coming from going daytime instead of the redeye. Don't get me wrong, my sleep cycle much prefers the new schedule, but seems about as sustainable as the fall of 2001.
Load on this route in the spring and summer was much higher -- 80-90 percent, and full on peak days. I'm sure part of the drop is seasonal, but I'm wondering how much is coming from going daytime instead of the redeye. Don't get me wrong, my sleep cycle much prefers the new schedule, but seems about as sustainable as the fall of 2001.
#12
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,844
Pretty much any flight in peak summer travel season can be filled if seats are offered at the right price. September to March it is just about guaranteed to lose money. They obviously don't have a FF base in Raleigh and the only option on AS from SFO is that one flight. UA has two non-stops. Every other carrier has multiple connecting options. Once the timings for the flights in one direction don't work, people start looking elsewhere. When there are other better options, people are going to choose those. These long, thin routes are very difficult for AS in the off season as unless they become relevant enough to get a bunch of corporate contracts from SFO, there are just not enough people going to RDU every day that are not already loyal to WN/UA/DL/AA or even B6/F9 to leave them with enough revenue to make it work--unless they try to duplicate the UA schedule and then they are guaranteed to lose money for a while--which Wall Street is pressuring them not to do. Another rock and a hard place.
#13
Join Date: May 2016
Location: Seattle
Posts: 85
RDU/SFO when it was a red-eye and AM westbound was doing great, but yields on red-eyes are not very high. Looking at westbound loads for the next week is not promising. RDU/SEA is frequently full year-round
#15
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,844
At SFO, AS is in a weaker position market share wise than even DL at SEA. In SEA they have the fan base who will take what AS is offering as the carrier offering the most flights from SEA. At SFO, UA has the most market share and in the case of RDU, the best non stop schedule plus a myriad of connecting options. AS is the weakest of all the carriers with just one option a day to get there. This narrows the pool of people who just happen to find the AS schedule convenient and the price right. Most business people don’t want to waste the whole day going East. Leisure travelers dry up by September which leaves a few crumbs.