[Speculation] Fall 2018 New AS Route Announcement
Sep 5, 2018, 5:42 pm
#76
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: SEA
Programs: AS MVPG
Posts: 153
Since HQ2 is likely to be DC area (Bezos has a house there and major data centers nearby) I guess the real question is whether AS wants to go head-to-head with UA at IAD or WN at BWI. Or since they’ve got a decent presence at JFK, why not build that out a bit more, and connect some of their destinations on the east coast (e.g. JFK-FLL).
Sep 5, 2018, 6:05 pm
#77
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
No, no, and no. Not even carriers with a strong East Coast presence are adding much to IAD or BWI to compete with the entrenched carriers there. Within perimeter, most carriers/passengers prefer DCA and AS just sold of their DCA in perimeter slots. IAD is just not that high yield. UA does OK because of the relatively strong international flights. AS is not going to start flights to Europe from Dulles and couldn't find a use for the in perimeter slots they already had from DCA. Offering a token presence at IAD/BWI would be a suicide mission for a carrier based on the West Coast. They are not going to get any slots to operate JFK-FLL at the frequency they would need to compete with the incumbent carriers. They can barely support FLL to their west coast hubs at this point. Why would they bother with low yielding routes like JFK-FLL against incumbent carriers? They would add absolutely nothing except a warm glow gained by setting their money on fire.
Sep 5, 2018, 6:38 pm
#78
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Pacific Wonderland
Programs: ʙᴏɴᴠo̱ʏ Au, IHG Au, HH Dia, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred
Posts: 5,336
Sep 5, 2018, 7:19 pm
#79
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: SEA
Programs: AS MVPG
Posts: 153
That's ultimately the point I was trying to make (poorly, it seems!). The argument that AS should build out a focus city / hub to Amazon HQ2 location, then it entails choosing from these terrible options. And a midwest focus city ain't happening any time soon, so I think as others mentioned up-thread, the best option is to add frequency to successful routes.
Sep 5, 2018, 7:35 pm
#80
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Portland, Oregon
Programs: Hilton Platinum, Alaska MVP Gold
Posts: 2,363
AS serves STL from SAN as well! I do find it unlikely that they would ever develop a hub there though.
Not sure if AS will be granted more gates than its current situation at SAN once the move to T2 is complete in January, but I’d selfishly love to see SAN get more routes. It would be easier and make more sense for AS to build at SAN than KCI or STL.
I think AS’s best shot at developing a hub outside of the west coast is to first make a focus city out of wherever Amazon puts HQ2 and build on that.
Agree on SAN, get as many gates as you can.
I personally would be shocked if Alaska still exists in 5 years. I think dumping all domestic partners was the kiss of death. Brad Tilden is just an incompetent leader...cutting off his nose to spit his face....he is leading Alaska into the ground with his nickel and dime cuts.
Sep 5, 2018, 7:38 pm
#81
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Portland, Oregon
Programs: Hilton Platinum, Alaska MVP Gold
Posts: 2,363
Sep 5, 2018, 7:39 pm
#82
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Portland, Oregon
Programs: Hilton Platinum, Alaska MVP Gold
Posts: 2,363
MCI is never going to be a hub until the new terminal is built. The whole multiple security checkpoints screws that concept.
Sep 5, 2018, 8:41 pm
#83
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
I would think that an earthquake sinking the entire West Coast into the ocean or climate change pushing the ocean to the Rockies has a higher probability of happening. The security check point issue is the least of their issues in setting up a hub at MCI.
Sep 5, 2018, 10:46 pm
#84
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Pacific Wonderland
Programs: ʙᴏɴᴠo̱ʏ Au, IHG Au, HH Dia, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred
Posts: 5,336
Sep 6, 2018, 6:49 am
#85
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,485
Yes. I get that. But if they're reducing flights then does that not reduce the flown ASM's as well? If they're planning on 2% growth based on today's ASM's, but then reduce the ASM flown, doesn't that mean more than 2% increase based on today's ASM? So, while the words change, the concept is the same, right? I'm not talking about daily departures as well - I'm guessing that probably will remain fairly similar to what we see today, with a shift in where those planes go. As someone else mentioned, the A320's won't be contributing greatly to the increase in ASM's through 2019, though there will be a few new Boeings coming on property.
Sep 6, 2018, 7:35 am
#86
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Join Date: Jun 2001
Programs: DL 1 million, AA 1 mil, HH lapsed Diamond, Marriott Plat
Posts: 28,190
I personally would be shocked if Alaska still exists in 5 years. I think dumping all domestic partners was the kiss of death. Brad Tilden is just an incompetent leader...cutting off his nose to spit his face....he is leading Alaska into the ground with his nickel and dime cuts.
Sep 6, 2018, 8:07 am
#87
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: Pacific Wonderland
Programs: ʙᴏɴᴠo̱ʏ Au, IHG Au, HH Dia, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred
Posts: 5,336
Or B6 taking VX, and still losing DL as a partner & AA's reciprocal elite benefits and domestic mileage earning. That AS would be even worse off.
Sep 7, 2018, 6:32 am
#88
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Portland, Oregon
Programs: Hilton Platinum, Alaska MVP Gold
Posts: 2,363
Not sure what you are after here, but I think, in in retrospect, that Alaska would be better off with American as a partner over purchasing Virgin America. I think Alaska was not prepared to maintain the course in SFO and some of the other Virgin outposts. Or maybe it was a dying model to begin with. Or maybe just let Virgin be its own airline and cater to its niche. The whole thing has been a disaster and shows fully that Alaska really is a one city airline with a few exceptions. For Alaska to survive and thrive it needs to find routes that work outside of Seattle.
Sep 7, 2018, 9:54 am
#89
Join Date: Apr 2014
Programs: Coffee Shop Buy 10 Get 1 Free
Posts: 295
I had to pretty much stop flying AS since the VX takeover for this exact reason. Addition of VX does absolutely nothing for me in my situation
Sep 7, 2018, 10:39 am
#90
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
With AA moving AAdvantage to revenue based, I think it is presumptuous to think that the AA-AS partnership could have continued status quo.