[Speculation] Fall 2018 New AS Route Announcement
Sep 2, 2018, 9:04 pm
#61
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
No, as they will likely only grow by upgauging for the next year and a half. Otherwise it will just be rearranging the deck chairs through 2019.
Sep 3, 2018, 8:39 pm
#62
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 5,956
2% growth for next year reflects growth, not upgauging or "rearranging the deck chairs". It also does not account for the unprofitable routes that have been cut - both those that VX was losing money on and those new ones that AS started that didn't mature quickly enough, or show signs of maturing in a decent time frame. Given that, you could expect more new routes to be announced, not necessarily new cities, to make up that 2% plus more to compensate for the reduction in flying because of cancelled flying.
Sep 4, 2018, 12:27 am
#63
Join Date: May 2006
Location: TUS/PDX
Programs: WN CP/A-List, AS MVPG75K
Posts: 5,798
Sep 4, 2018, 6:12 am
#64
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
Sep 4, 2018, 7:09 am
#65
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,485
2% growth for next year reflects growth, not upgauging or "rearranging the deck chairs". It also does not account for the unprofitable routes that have been cut - both those that VX was losing money on and those new ones that AS started that didn't mature quickly enough, or show signs of maturing in a decent time frame. Given that, you could expect more new routes to be announced, not necessarily new cities, to make up that 2% plus more to compensate for the reduction in flying because of cancelled flying.
Sep 4, 2018, 9:39 am
#66
Join Date: May 2012
Location: DCA, lived MCI, SEA/PDX,BUF (born/raised)
Programs: Marriott (Silver/Gold), IHG, Carlson, Best Western, Choice( Gold), AS (MVP), WN, UA
Posts: 8,730
Sep 4, 2018, 9:42 am
#67
Join Date: May 2012
Location: DCA, lived MCI, SEA/PDX,BUF (born/raised)
Programs: Marriott (Silver/Gold), IHG, Carlson, Best Western, Choice( Gold), AS (MVP), WN, UA
Posts: 8,730
Sep 4, 2018, 12:51 pm
#68
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
2% growth is either in ASM or available seat. Either way, upgauging will be a big part of that. There is not a single airline that measures growth in terms of # of daily departures. Adding more seats to A320s will be part of the growth. Adding more B739ER will be part of the growth. I won't be surprised if # of daily departures remain unchanged for next year.
Sep 4, 2018, 3:44 pm
#69
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
2% growth is either in ASM or available seat. Either way, upgauging will be a big part of that. There is not a single airline that measures growth in terms of # of daily departures. Adding more seats to A320s will be part of the growth. Adding more B739ER will be part of the growth. I won't be surprised if # of daily departures remain unchanged for next year.
Finally, a note on 2019 capacity. Given the very substantial increase in fuel prices over the last couple of years and a capacity environment that has not adequately adjusted to them, we have reduced our 2019 capacity growth to 2%. As we've said on prior calls, we want to be good stewards of capital, and in this environment, we're just not seeing the returns that justify higher levels of growth. However, given the competitive advantages that we maintain, we think there will be a time in the intermediate term when higher growth will once again make sense for us and our owners.
Sep 5, 2018, 6:33 am
#70
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Portland, Oregon
Programs: Hilton Platinum, Alaska MVP Gold
Posts: 2,363
Skeptical on that. Buying Jet Blue? Unlikely. A hub in KC or STL? I don't know much STL is in their plans, they pulled back and only serve it from Seattle at the moment. KCI maybe, a new terminal is supposed to be open in 2021 or 2022 and may make the airport more palatable for today's security standards. Now its unlikely you could ever connect here since security is in one to two gate blocks through most of the airport. To be successful Alaska has to be more than successful from just one key city.
Sep 5, 2018, 7:30 am
#71
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: SAN
Programs: AS MVPG100K, UA Gold, IHG Diamond, Hyatt Globalist, National Exec
Posts: 320
Skeptical on that. Buying Jet Blue? Unlikely. A hub in KC or STL? I don't know much STL is in their plans, they pulled back and only serve it from Seattle at the moment. KCI maybe, a new terminal is supposed to be open in 2021 or 2022 and may make the airport more palatable for today's security standards. Now its unlikely you could ever connect here since security is in one to two gate blocks through most of the airport. To be successful Alaska has to be more than successful from just one key city.
Not sure if AS will be granted more gates than its current situation at SAN once the move to T2 is complete in January, but I’d selfishly love to see SAN get more routes. It would be easier and make more sense for AS to build at SAN than KCI or STL.
I think AS’s best shot at developing a hub outside of the west coast is to first make a focus city out of wherever Amazon puts HQ2 and build on that.
Sep 5, 2018, 8:06 am
#72
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
There is preceisely zero chance of that happening in the near term. They would lose less money if they withdrew their available cash reserves and set it on fire rather than opening a hub at MCI or STL.
Sep 5, 2018, 4:25 pm
#73
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 5,956
2% growth is either in ASM or available seat. Either way, upgauging will be a big part of that. There is not a single airline that measures growth in terms of # of daily departures. Adding more seats to A320s will be part of the growth. Adding more B739ER will be part of the growth. I won't be surprised if # of daily departures remain unchanged for next year.
Sep 5, 2018, 4:29 pm
#74
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 5,956
On this we definitely agree. A midcon hub isn't gonna happen with the current Alaska Airlines. If Alaska were to join forces with, say, JetBlue then I would imagine anything is possible as that would then be a true national carrier. Right now... I'd bet my next year of pay that the middle of the country won't see any kind of Alaska service that doesn't go to the west coast.
Sep 5, 2018, 5:09 pm
#75
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,848
It is the same kind of thing when mainline replaces a Horizon flight. You could take out two Horizon frequencies and replace them with one mainline aircraft and still increase the ASMs.
Yes, there will be some reduction by replacing former VX planes on shorter flights in the West but again because of all the higher capacity on the longer/denser flights, they may just be planning to cut quite a lot of flights out completely (which they may do anyway if former VX aircraft are in maintenance/getting new seats). It seems likely that the total flight numbers will be well off their peak through 2019 unless they change their guidance again due to reduced oil prices or strong increases in yields--both of which seem unlikely in the current environment.