channa

If you want to look at it holistically, most non-frequent flyers on the West Coast have no idea that EWR is a viable airport for New York. That's a huge barrier to entry for EWR service.


They will? They can't even figure out how to do a pre-departure beverage like everyone else has been doing for years.


The issue is the entry barrier. MVPG essentially has WN's no change fee policy. MVP and above gets you the bags. This is all well and good, but unless you see that and are willing to invest in the flying as a nobody (how do you justify bag fees and change fees when the competitor doesn't have them?), it's a tough barrier to get past.

As for IRROPS, while interlining is important, how often does it really happen? I just had my first AS push to an OAL last week, in maybe 4 years as Gold/75K. And if they fought it, I was prepared to pay for it -- the UA flight was about $60 more than I paid anyway. Wouldn't have been the end of the world. I understand other situations may not have been that easy, but it's not something happening so frequently that people are getting burned day in and day out. Someone has to get burned by it on WN, have a disruptive impact or significant out of pocket, and then realize the mistake before it sinks in that they may have made the wrong choice. But even then, if WN throws them a voucher, they may forgive them (the WN customers seem to tolerate more and make excuses for more than the SEA-based AS customers).


I'm not seeing that. I'm seeing the ridiculous flash and fire sales as have been pointed out here.


WN isn't cheap. That perception is at least 10 years outdated.

As has been pointed out, from a California perspective, AS has been very competitive.


New routes always take time to build the customer base. Back when we had DL as a partner, I was flying DL from California to SEA to ANC and back and was 100% for upgrades on a number of trips. And that was at the bottom of the upgrade list being an AS member (below DL Silver). But that's an AS-dominated route, and for DL, SEA-ANC was a new route. I was also doing a lot of LAX and some of DL's Latin service. LAX was still somewhat new, and Latin markets tend to be light on Elites. So my joke was that while I held 1K status at the time, I did better on DL as AS than I did on UA as 1K. The reality was it was route selection that did it.

Eastbay1K

Yes. They already have the most generous domestic F pitch, and the new seats will have footrests. Their failure to perform a simple PDB has nothing to do with the hard product.

diver858

Consider yourself fortunate.
There have been some famous WN WX meltdowns, where many thousands of passengers were stranded for days - such as on 2014 https://www.bizjournals.com/chicago/...rport-may.html, and to lesser extend, a few months back https://thepointsguy.com/2018/02/sou...-deicing-fluid. Have you already forgotten the WN IT meltdown of 2016 https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...chnical-outage. The WN forum has threads full our outraged customers from each of the events; and what was WN's response - throw a fare sale, and most of the koolaid drinkers were pacified.
Most anyone who uses SFO intra-California has their share of IRROPS weather issues; most carriers will make an effort to accommodate passengers; WN on the other hand simply makes refund announcements, wishing passengers good luck in reaching their destinations. In my one such experience, I was fortunate to have A-list status, ended up in one of the last seats on one of the few flights making it out that night.
DL recently had a major operational event in ATL, one of their first responses was to resume its interline arrangement with AA.

OPENROAD

What is service like in First from SEA-JFK/EWR? Currently use Delta on this route either Delta + or up front, Delta has full flat lie beds, but looks like fares have gone up significantly for both redemption miles. Use Alaska Economy fairly regularly, but not up front. Welcome the early morning flight to JFK and the return evening flight.

diver858

Keep in mind that most all of the AS intra-California flights - at least those where they compete with WN - are on OO, flying E175's. This suggests AS' costs are substantially less than WN, and with fewer seats to fill, should be able to win a war of attrition with WN. So while Gary Kelly may have allowed the RASM to be downgraded in the short term, he is first and foremost a bean counter, has been known to throw in the towel rather than fight - PHL and ATL are classic examples Is Southwest?s Pullback In Philadelphia a Sign of Potential Trouble in Atlanta? (Guest Post) | Cranky Flier and https://www.myajc.com/blog/airport/s...aqmBrzOB7IX83M

tphuang

E75's overall cost maybe lower, but they have fewer passengers to spread it across, so the CASM is far higher. I don't see how a regional jet operation could have lower CASM than mainline of an airline with similar overall CASM.
All of intra-cali routes that I've seen where AS and WN compete, the lf on WN is at least comparable if not significantly better than AS. And the average fares are higher too. The former is based on Q4 T100 numbers and the latter is based on Q3 fare numbers. Q4 fare numbers should come out soon, which will give a better picture, but AS is up against tall order against WN in the intra-cali market.

And let's be real here, AS at SFO/SJC/SAN/BUR is nothing compared to the pressure of DL at ATL.

ucdtim17

If there's going to be a war of attrition, I've got my money on the long entrenched, much larger incumbent. If the trick to knocking Southwest off their intra-CA domination was running cheaper RJs, someone else would have been done it a long time ago.

diver858

OO FAs, pilots make MUCH less than their mainline counterparts, ground crews and maintenance are outsourced at much lower rates.
From http://www.oliverwyman.com/content/d...-2015-2016.pdf
"...As a result of the significant decline in fuel cost, labor now represents the largest cost category for US airlines. It accounts for 32.9% of the network carrier systemwide unit cost and 34.5% of value carrier cost. Value carrier unit labor cost increased 5.6% year‑over‑year. During the same period, network unit labor cost increased only 0.5%..."
"...For the first time, Southwest unit labor costs are the highest among US airlines at 4.46˘ per ASM. More than 40% of Southwest unit cost is labor‑related. Delta’s labor cost per ASM was down 14.1% from 2014, when the carrier had the highest labor cost in the US industry..."
Embraer 195 E-2 Vs. 737-7MAX Vs. CS300 Vs. A319 NEO AND Embraer 190 E-2 Vs. CS100 - Airliners.net
"...The Embraer aircraft are optimised to be efficient flying short 1000 mile flights. The Boeing and Airbus aircraft are shrinks so maintain the large fuel capacity of the larger versions. They have longer range but aren't as efficient on short trips..."

eponymous_coward

tphuang

Yes, but that cost is spread across 175 seats for WN 738 and across 76 seats for regional aircraft.

If you don't believe me, just check AAG's investor presentation.
SEC Filing | Alaska Air Group Inc
check page 39 on operating stats.
AAG as a whole has CASMex of 8.23 and mainline has CASMex of 7.47. If we use RPM to calculate regional, we get
(8.23 * 52338 - 7.47 * 48238) / 4101 = 17.17

according to this Southwest Airlines Reports Record Fourth Quarter And Annual Profit; 45th Consecutive Year Of Profitability ? Southwest Airlines
WN's CASMex is 9.17 for Q4. And WN runs 737 miles per segment on average. And AS regional is at around 431 miles. So it's not exactly apple to apple. WN's CASMex for 431 miles would be higher, but certainly no where close to 17.17.

btw, this is what I got for fare numbers in Q4 on the intra-cali routes that both AS and WN operate. CP is compass. OO in most cases here are operating for AAG.

SANSJC
OO 2629 115.03
WN 18900 122.90
SANSFO
WN 12398 112.29
VX 9578 105.46
UA 8572 138.70
SANSMF
OO 2143 109.76
WN 17906 120.19
SJCBUR
OO 1490 88.38
WN 12348 112.14
SJCLAX
OO 2591 102.64
DL 1133 112.90
WN 12293 110.35
CP 4426 131.15
SJCSNA
OO 2618 108.05
WN 16069 126.11
SNASFO
OO 4137 118.35
WN 8650 115.88
UA 5290 129.86

channa

Indeed. AS is very aggressive about matching WN sales. The question is who is dictating the low prices? When left to its own devices, WN is not as cheap (see their pricing ex-OAK as an example).

sfozrhfco

The problem with AS at SFO especially is that pricing is entirely dictated by their competitors. They have absolutely no pricing power. This means that if competitors are offering loss leaders and have plenty of money to blow in those markets while making it up in others where they have stronger fares, AS bears the brunt of the pressure. Cutting flight frequency will not help that. Moving back to 1 flight a day from LAX-ORD starting on 25 August will just leave them with the most price sensitive passengers in this in many other California markets. It is going to be a long and painful year in CA for AS.