Upcoming AS Route Cuts
Dec 22, 2018, 11:09 am
#526
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Over the Bay Bridge, CA
Programs: Jumbo mas
Posts: 38,591
What would a "connection" network on AS even look like? They've (stupidly, in my opinion) based all of their routing locations along the I-5 corridor. Like, if you are ANYWHERE but that I-5 corridor trying to get someplace that's also not on that corridor, the route map looks positively moronic to do so (and will look 50 times worse when AA finishes kicking AS to the curb).
Dec 22, 2018, 3:49 pm
#527
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: YYF/YLW
Programs: AA, DL, AS, VA, WS Silver
Posts: 5,950
What would a "connection" network on AS even look like? They've (stupidly, in my opinion) based all of their routing locations along the I-5 corridor. Like, if you are ANYWHERE but that I-5 corridor trying to get someplace that's also not on that corridor, the route map looks positively moronic to do so (and will look 50 times worse when AA finishes kicking AS to the curb).
Dec 22, 2018, 4:03 pm
#528
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,376
What would a "connection" network on AS even look like? They've (stupidly, in my opinion) based all of their routing locations along the I-5 corridor. Like, if you are ANYWHERE but that I-5 corridor trying to get someplace that's also not on that corridor, the route map looks positively moronic to do so (and will look 50 times worse when AA finishes kicking AS to the curb).
Dec 22, 2018, 7:08 pm
#530
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,376
I wasn’t going to point it out because, well, they did (finally) start making profits and did (finally) pay their VCs back, Plus they didn’t try to be everything to everyone. They weren’t the raging success B6 is but they weren’t a failure.
B6 has been pretty good at not being everything to everyone either...
B6 has been pretty good at not being everything to everyone either...
Dec 26, 2018, 2:58 am
#531
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: SFO/SJC/OAK/STS
Programs: Alaska MVPG, Delta PM, AA EXP, Wannabe SkyWest 1K
Posts: 644
VX broke the model of B6, AS, and WN, which was to built hubs/focus cities in places like JFK, BOS, OAK, MDW, SEA, ANC, etc where you gain high market share at the airport and by having monopolies or duopolies on most routes. VX never developed that at SFO, and AS can now subsidize SFO operations from profitable SEA, PDX, ANC hubs which VX obviously couldn't do. AS also has a far more competitive FF program.
But I'm still curious to see what AS does at SFO because it's not like the airline to fly so many routes where it has low market share.
Dec 26, 2018, 7:47 am
#532
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Over the Bay Bridge, CA
Programs: Jumbo mas
Posts: 38,591
You do mean "creditors," correct?
Dec 27, 2018, 7:39 pm
#533
Join Date: Jan 2014
Programs: AS, QF, SK
Posts: 127
You probably would have called WN moronic when they were AS’s size decades ago- they didn’t serve markets like SFO, NYC, never offered F or lounges. Not trying to do some things until they hit certain sizes, or maybe even never doing things (and committing to a model) is why airlines like WN and AS are still in business and other airlines aren’t. It’s pretty “moronic” to not play to strengths when you always have larger competition in markets, and smaller competitors typically fail trying to be all things to all people when competing with larger ones.
They should have had at least 2 hubs that weren't on that stretch of road - it didn't even really matter where, so long as it didn't mean flying to the corner of the country to catch a connection (St. Louis, Detroit, Minneapolis...hell, Denver even). Saddest part about B6 losing out on VX was that the world missed out on an opportunity to get another full-range carrier. All we got was redundancy which, as you can see, is now being stripped out.
Dec 27, 2018, 8:22 pm
#534
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: SEA
Programs: AS MVP , Delta Gold Medallion, "Credit Card" status for various hotels
Posts: 672
Strengths become weaknesses really fast when you fail to adapt or evolve. Yeah great, I can get from Seattle to Pittsburgh now. That's actually pretty cool. But can I get from Pittsburgh to Chicago? Not without going to Seattle first. WN didn't have 4 hubs that were all situated along the same stretch of road the way AS does. As DL showed, all you have to do is throw money at a weakness and you can turn it into a strength. What used to be pretty exclusively AS territory in Seattle is now...well, not. I'm certainly not saying AS needed to build a global network (though losing 20-some-odd partners in the last 8 or 9 years makes that something of a conversation in some regards), but they should have at least established presences in different time zones rather than putting them all along one frigging corridor. This is going to become more obvious a mistake to them as tech companies - long a bastion of hanging out on the Pacific Coast - accelerate their de-centralization plans and start putting more and more facilities in interior locations.
They should have had at least 2 hubs that weren't on that stretch of road - it didn't even really matter where, so long as it didn't mean flying to the corner of the country to catch a connection (St. Louis, Detroit, Minneapolis...hell, Denver even). Saddest part about B6 losing out on VX was that the world missed out on an opportunity to get another full-range carrier. All we got was redundancy which, as you can see, is now being stripped out.
They should have had at least 2 hubs that weren't on that stretch of road - it didn't even really matter where, so long as it didn't mean flying to the corner of the country to catch a connection (St. Louis, Detroit, Minneapolis...hell, Denver even). Saddest part about B6 losing out on VX was that the world missed out on an opportunity to get another full-range carrier. All we got was redundancy which, as you can see, is now being stripped out.
Dec 29, 2018, 8:15 pm
#535
Join Date: Jan 2014
Programs: AS, QF, SK
Posts: 127
I’m confused. Why is it that Alaska needs to compete for customers heading from PIT-Chicago? Or from any two points in the eastern seaboard? At what point in their past do you think establishing an east coast or midwestern hub would have turned a profit for them? And did I miss the memo where Delta’s Seattle hub (which you’re right - they threw lots of money at) has suddenly become profitable? Why is Alaska supposed to organically grow a large domestic network on par with the big four when those airlines attained scale through a merger? Does Alaska need a nationwide route network to be profitable? And by “stretch of road”, did you mean interstate 5, a highway that connects the entirety of the west coast, including all of its economic influence and population?
- Great, there's a SEA>PIT route. That's great for their Seattle travelers. What does the person in Pittsburgh care about this? "Oh look Jerry, that plane has a weird Eskimo looking guy painted on it!" These people probably want their airline to get them to more places than just...Seattle. The core responsibility of any company is to grow. AS has amazing margins (I think they might even be the best domestic margins in the industry) but their capacity growth is terrible, because they're not even attempting to signal interest to any of those potential customers on the other end of their thrown ball of string. The era of large-scale independent regional/non-feeder carriers is quickly coming to a close (ironically, due in part to AS's 2.6bln buyout of VX).
- The modern traveler has more of a mesh network than a point-to-point one for their travels. And these people don't want to fly over half/all the country to get to a hub to fly half/all the way back over. I was ahead of the curve of my company in ditching AS loyalty (they were our preferred carrier, but they caused me a physical injury on a flight once, so I got an exemption to use DL when I could), but now DL is the preferred carrier for my entire (very large) organization. Why? Because people were getting stuck in DEN/BNA without an easy way to get to LAX, or they found themselves in MSP and couldn't get to BOS without traveling 4 hours the wrong direction first and kept having to fill out travel exemptions. Once every meaningful European partner other than BA dried up and the org's international travelers were on different networks because they didn't want to split programs, it was over. Again, this is going to become a bigger and bigger thing for AS as tech companies (since, let's face it, tech travelers are the airline's lifeblood at this stage) start setting up most of their outposts in the Front Range or Austin or Nashville and expect their workers to be able to get between those points without having to see Pacific Ocean first. These days, at our org, you have to fill out an explanation in Concur as to why you've even chosen AS, even if it's the lowest fare, and our two companies were pretty tightly knit at one point.
- Populations are stabilizing in the cities AS calls hub-homes, which limits growth
- Going back to VX, they threw 2.6 billion dollars into a hole to announce their presence as one of the big players of the travel industry, and ended up with nothing to show for it but a lot of confusion, mixed hardware, and angry people (and successfully stopped B6 - for the moment - from announcing THEIR presence as one of the big players).
Doesn't matter. See it or don't. The thing with companies using strategies like this (we'll just be super nimble and out maneuver everybody!) is that all it takes is a couple of misfires, and you're screwed. They're gonna make some mistakes and lose just enough market cap to find themselves getting gobbled up at some point when some other carrier decides it doesn't want to build its own west coast network or that (like DL) they want another gateway to Asia that doesn't require having a friend. Although I did find it amusing you talked about scale through merger when the company you're trying to take up for attempted just that, it just didn't work.
Dec 29, 2018, 9:53 pm
#536
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,376
Strengths become weaknesses really fast when you fail to adapt or evolve. Yeah great, I can get from Seattle to Pittsburgh now. That's actually pretty cool. But can I get from Pittsburgh to Chicago? Not without going to Seattle first. WN didn't have 4 hubs that were all situated along the same stretch of road the way AS does. As DL showed, all you have to do is throw money at a weakness and you can turn it into a strength. What used to be pretty exclusively AS territory in Seattle is now...well, not. I'm certainly not saying AS needed to build a global network (though losing 20-some-odd partners in the last 8 or 9 years makes that something of a conversation in some regards), but they should have at least established presences in different time zones rather than putting them all along one frigging corridor. This is going to become more obvious a mistake to them as tech companies - long a bastion of hanging out on the Pacific Coast - accelerate their de-centralization plans and start putting more and more facilities in interior locations.
They should have had at least 2 hubs that weren't on that stretch of road - it didn't even really matter where, so long as it didn't mean flying to the corner of the country to catch a connection (St. Louis, Detroit, Minneapolis...hell, Denver even). Saddest part about B6 losing out on VX was that the world missed out on an opportunity to get another full-range carrier. All we got was redundancy which, as you can see, is now being stripped out.
They should have had at least 2 hubs that weren't on that stretch of road - it didn't even really matter where, so long as it didn't mean flying to the corner of the country to catch a connection (St. Louis, Detroit, Minneapolis...hell, Denver even). Saddest part about B6 losing out on VX was that the world missed out on an opportunity to get another full-range carrier. All we got was redundancy which, as you can see, is now being stripped out.
They still don’t serve JFK. They didn’t serve SFO for a long time. They don’t do NYC-California transcons.
Been good talking to you, thanks for lending your expertise as an Executive VP of Airline Network Plannjng to us. That is always a resource in short supply here on Flyertalk. I wait with bated breath for the Alaska Chapter 11 which is obviously pending.
Dec 29, 2018, 10:55 pm
#537
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Berkeley, CA
Programs: UA Silver, Southwest A-List, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 818
Dec 30, 2018, 12:12 am
#538
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: SEA
Programs: AS MVP , Delta Gold Medallion, "Credit Card" status for various hotels
Posts: 672
I don't get what's so confusing.
Doesn't matter. See it or don't. The thing with companies using strategies like this (we'll just be super nimble and out maneuver everybody!) is that all it takes is a couple of misfires, and you're screwed. They're gonna make some mistakes and lose just enough market cap to find themselves getting gobbled up at some point when some other carrier decides it doesn't want to build its own west coast network or that (like DL) they want another gateway to Asia that doesn't require having a friend. Although I did find it amusing you talked about scale through merger when the company you're trying to take up for attempted just that, it just didn't work.
- Great, there's a SEA>PIT route. That's great for their Seattle travelers. What does the person in Pittsburgh care about this? "Oh look Jerry, that plane has a weird Eskimo looking guy painted on it!" These people probably want their airline to get them to more places than just...Seattle. The core responsibility of any company is to grow. AS has amazing margins (I think they might even be the best domestic margins in the industry) but their capacity growth is terrible, because they're not even attempting to signal interest to any of those potential customers on the other end of their thrown ball of string. The era of large-scale independent regional/non-feeder carriers is quickly coming to a close (ironically, due in part to AS's 2.6bln buyout of VX).
- The modern traveler has more of a mesh network than a point-to-point one for their travels. And these people don't want to fly over half/all the country to get to a hub to fly half/all the way back over. I was ahead of the curve of my company in ditching AS loyalty (they were our preferred carrier, but they caused me a physical injury on a flight once, so I got an exemption to use DL when I could), but now DL is the preferred carrier for my entire (very large) organization. Why? Because people were getting stuck in DEN/BNA without an easy way to get to LAX, or they found themselves in MSP and couldn't get to BOS without traveling 4 hours the wrong direction first and kept having to fill out travel exemptions. Once every meaningful European partner other than BA dried up and the org's international travelers were on different networks because they didn't want to split programs, it was over. Again, this is going to become a bigger and bigger thing for AS as tech companies (since, let's face it, tech travelers are the airline's lifeblood at this stage) start setting up most of their outposts in the Front Range or Austin or Nashville and expect their workers to be able to get between those points without having to see Pacific Ocean first. These days, at our org, you have to fill out an explanation in Concur as to why you've even chosen AS, even if it's the lowest fare, and our two companies were pretty tightly knit at one point.
- Populations are stabilizing in the cities AS calls hub-homes, which limits growth
- Going back to VX, they threw 2.6 billion dollars into a hole to announce their presence as one of the big players of the travel industry, and ended up with nothing to show for it but a lot of confusion, mixed hardware, and angry people (and successfully stopped B6 - for the moment - from announcing THEIR presence as one of the big players).
Doesn't matter. See it or don't. The thing with companies using strategies like this (we'll just be super nimble and out maneuver everybody!) is that all it takes is a couple of misfires, and you're screwed. They're gonna make some mistakes and lose just enough market cap to find themselves getting gobbled up at some point when some other carrier decides it doesn't want to build its own west coast network or that (like DL) they want another gateway to Asia that doesn't require having a friend. Although I did find it amusing you talked about scale through merger when the company you're trying to take up for attempted just that, it just didn't work.
Dec 30, 2018, 12:15 am
#539
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 2,834
I don't get what's so confusing.
Doesn't matter. See it or don't. The thing with companies using strategies like this (we'll just be super nimble and out maneuver everybody!) is that all it takes is a couple of misfires, and you're screwed. They're gonna make some mistakes and lose just enough market cap to find themselves getting gobbled up at some point when some other carrier decides it doesn't want to build its own west coast network or that (like DL) they want another gateway to Asia that doesn't require having a friend. Although I did find it amusing you talked about scale through merger when the company you're trying to take up for attempted just that, it just didn't work.
- Great, there's a SEA>PIT route. That's great for their Seattle travelers. What does the person in Pittsburgh care about this? "Oh look Jerry, that plane has a weird Eskimo looking guy painted on it!" These people probably want their airline to get them to more places than just...Seattle. The core responsibility of any company is to grow. AS has amazing margins (I think they might even be the best domestic margins in the industry) but their capacity growth is terrible, because they're not even attempting to signal interest to any of those potential customers on the other end of their thrown ball of string. The era of large-scale independent regional/non-feeder carriers is quickly coming to a close (ironically, due in part to AS's 2.6bln buyout of VX).
- The modern traveler has more of a mesh network than a point-to-point one for their travels. And these people don't want to fly over half/all the country to get to a hub to fly half/all the way back over. I was ahead of the curve of my company in ditching AS loyalty (they were our preferred carrier, but they caused me a physical injury on a flight once, so I got an exemption to use DL when I could), but now DL is the preferred carrier for my entire (very large) organization. Why? Because people were getting stuck in DEN/BNA without an easy way to get to LAX, or they found themselves in MSP and couldn't get to BOS without traveling 4 hours the wrong direction first and kept having to fill out travel exemptions. Once every meaningful European partner other than BA dried up and the org's international travelers were on different networks because they didn't want to split programs, it was over. Again, this is going to become a bigger and bigger thing for AS as tech companies (since, let's face it, tech travelers are the airline's lifeblood at this stage) start setting up most of their outposts in the Front Range or Austin or Nashville and expect their workers to be able to get between those points without having to see Pacific Ocean first. These days, at our org, you have to fill out an explanation in Concur as to why you've even chosen AS, even if it's the lowest fare, and our two companies were pretty tightly knit at one point.
- Populations are stabilizing in the cities AS calls hub-homes, which limits growth
- Going back to VX, they threw 2.6 billion dollars into a hole to announce their presence as one of the big players of the travel industry, and ended up with nothing to show for it but a lot of confusion, mixed hardware, and angry people (and successfully stopped B6 - for the moment - from announcing THEIR presence as one of the big players).
Doesn't matter. See it or don't. The thing with companies using strategies like this (we'll just be super nimble and out maneuver everybody!) is that all it takes is a couple of misfires, and you're screwed. They're gonna make some mistakes and lose just enough market cap to find themselves getting gobbled up at some point when some other carrier decides it doesn't want to build its own west coast network or that (like DL) they want another gateway to Asia that doesn't require having a friend. Although I did find it amusing you talked about scale through merger when the company you're trying to take up for attempted just that, it just didn't work.
Dec 30, 2018, 8:15 am
#540
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 1,123
I know it's hard to believe here in the flyertalk bubble but most passengers dont have an airline that they think of as theirs. The PIT-SEA flight is usefull to the 90% of flyers that dont think loyalty to an an airline is as important as loyalty to their spouse. Most passengers will take the airline that best meets their needs of price, schedule, and service with loyalty only being a tie breaker.
