Upcoming AS Route Cuts

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Old Mar 12, 18, 8:52 am
  #271  
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Originally Posted by milypan View Post

Keep in mind that the F cabin on VX is equivalent to ~20 Y seats, and the F cabin on AS (738) is equivalent to ~24 Y seats. Overall margins are not high to begin with, so if they suddenly cannot sell F at any reasonable premium because theyíre directly competing with Mint, itís actually a pretty significant problem.
You really need AS F cabin (41" pitch) and VX F (55" pitch) to be radically failing in premiums to Y for your line of reasoning to work. If so, you've discovered how AS/VX can be killed out of SEA/SFO/LAX on 2000+ mile flights - DL/UA/AA/B6 just need to run lie-flat seats on AS routes. This would roll back a full decade of AS' route development.
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Old Mar 12, 18, 9:50 am
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme View Post
You really need AS F cabin (41" pitch) and VX F (55" pitch) to be radically failing in premiums to Y for your line of reasoning to work. If so, you've discovered how AS/VX can be killed out of SEA/SFO/LAX on 2000+ mile flights - DL/UA/AA/B6 just need to run lie-flat seats on AS routes. This would roll back a full decade of AS' route development.
I guess you've missed out on the part where VX average fare got crushed over the few quarters after mint entered market. Mint efficiencies have made it workable for many market unable to support lie flats, which legacies simply haven't been able to do. Or in the case of DL, they just loose massive amount of money on BOS-SFO trying to sustain a route that's important in winning corporate clients. AA has been experiencing a lot of ff leakage to B6 at MIA due to the mint success. This is not an issue only AS is dealing with.
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Old Mar 12, 18, 11:52 am
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Still not buying it.

B6 is selling Mint for $599, I have seen AS F go for MUCH higher prices.

B6 offers LOTS of SAN-FLL seats at DEEP discount (sub $149 each way), very much in line for what I routinely see on AS for SAN-BOS, EWR and MCO.

I don't have access to actual airline data, experienced is based on empirical experience, researching airfares for travel.
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Old Mar 12, 18, 12:23 pm
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Originally Posted by diver858 View Post
Still not buying it.

B6 is selling Mint for $599, I have seen AS F go for MUCH higher prices.
Yeah, and as noted upthread, Mint of course needs a larger premium for Mint than AS gets for F because Mint takes more space (but not twice as much space) compared to an AS F seat.

The fact that AS is asking much higher prices doesn't mean they're selling (m)any seats at those high prices, since part of their strategy is explicitly to upsell coach fares to elites chasing U space.

But based on the relatively-low premium B6 gets for Mint, I too am skeptical that it can totally trash yields. But the fare data are what they are....
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Old Mar 12, 18, 11:57 pm
  #275  
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[QUOTE=diver858;29515494]Still not buying it.
/QUOTE]
Unfortunately for AS, nobody else is buying their F seats either. Mint for B6 is icing on the cake as the A321s have nearly the same operating costs as their A320s yet they have 16 premium seats which increase the profitability. AS maybe has a few award tickets or upgraders on the route with relatively high costs, AS loses money and Jetblue has been regularly increasing the price of Mint and sells the seats.

AS says they are cutting the weakest performers. If this flight is not doing better than walk up fares of $49.30 on flights to LAX, you know it has horrible yields. What little advantage they had before Mint came along was just completely destroyed when Mint was introduced.
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Old Mar 13, 18, 12:17 am
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[QUOTE=sfozrhfco;29517978]
Originally Posted by diver858 View Post
Still not buying it.
/QUOTE]
Unfortunately for AS, nobody else is buying their F seats either. Mint for B6 is icing on the cake as the A321s have nearly the same operating costs as their A320s yet they have 16 premium seats which increase the profitability. AS maybe has a few award tickets or upgraders on the route with relatively high costs, AS loses money and Jetblue has been regularly increasing the price of Mint and sells the seats.

AS says they are cutting the weakest performers. If this flight is not doing better than walk up fares of $49.30 on flights to LAX, you know it has horrible yields. What little advantage they had before Mint came along was just completely destroyed when Mint was introduced.
Those of us who fly AS refer to the front cabin as "Wide Front Seats" which includes spotty catering and free libations. This a a very small step up from the PE or exit row seats. The catering is very much hit or miss and mostly miss. The lack of PDB has been a detriment which we make excuses for. There is absolutely no reason anyone would pay for F except for the EQM's on TC flights .I have never found any reason to pay for AS F.B9 for Mint seems to be a no brainer unless you are trying to build your mileage balance on AS.
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Old Mar 23, 18, 8:57 am
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Very late to this party, but how can you not service DEN, a major growing tech city that is one of the closest cities to the West Coast and major ski destination, from more than one of your "focus" cities. AS doesn't even serve it from PDX, or SAN. I get most of their focus cities are somewhat hub-hub. But at what point did you expect to buy an airline with a presence at a major competitors hub and then not even make it reasonable for those customers to stay with AS if they would just gut their entire East-West destinations from that city, it doesn't make sense to feed everything through Seattle, if you now have some sort of focus in California, they should be trying to keep the VX faithful or even gain customers. But if you have to go to Seattle every time, or buy a AA codeshare out of LAX, just to get to Colorado, you won't have any frequent customers from those city bases. You'll be the premier North South West Coast transport.
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Old Mar 23, 18, 9:43 am
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Originally Posted by safari ari View Post
Very late to this party, but how can you not service DEN, a major growing tech city that is one of the closest cities to the West Coast and major ski destination, from more than one of your "focus" cities. AS doesn't even serve it from PDX, or SAN. I get most of their focus cities are somewhat hub-hub. But at what point did you expect to buy an airline with a presence at a major competitors hub and then not even make it reasonable for those customers to stay with AS if they would just gut their entire East-West destinations from that city, it doesn't make sense to feed everything through Seattle, if you now have some sort of focus in California, they should be trying to keep the VX faithful or even gain customers. But if you have to go to Seattle every time, or buy a AA codeshare out of LAX, just to get to Colorado, you won't have any frequent customers from those city bases. You'll be the premier North South West Coast transport.
#westcoastonly

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Old Mar 23, 18, 9:50 am
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[QUOTE=BOB W;29518009]
Originally Posted by sfozrhfco View Post
[left]

Those of us who fly AS refer to the front cabin as "Wide Front Seats" which includes spotty catering and free libations. This a a very small step up from the PE or exit row seats. The catering is very much hit or miss and mostly miss. The lack of PDB has been a detriment which we make excuses for. There is absolutely no reason anyone would pay for F except for the EQM's on TC flights .I have never found any reason to pay for AS F.B9 for Mint seems to be a no brainer unless you are trying to build your mileage balance on AS.
Or feel like you need to be able to easily change or cancel flights and redeposit in the Bank of Alaska airlines. We had this conversation last night with TH about this very same thing. When we retire, we'll likely fly other carriers because our schedules will be more flexible. Right now I feel like I can't even board a flight until I triple check everything is okay with my parents, and still I've had to cancel flights t-1 hour before boarding. Alaska is okay with that and for this I am grateful.

Also, can we talk about how they are going to deal with messy cupholders and cleaning blankets etc. between flights. I have seen tons of people (usually on AA business in the good old days) use their blankets to cushion the uncomfortable footrests - with or without their shoes on, its a toss up of grossness.
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Old Mar 23, 18, 1:00 pm
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Originally Posted by safari ari View Post
Very late to this party, but how can you not service DEN, a major growing tech city that is one of the closest cities to the West Coast and major ski destination, from more than one of your "focus" cities.
Yes, you are very late. Sorry, I don't mean to be snarky, but it's just become extremely clear that no route out of CA to a non-hub/focus city is above being potentially cut, save possibly NYC (and even that would probably get the axe if it totally failed to perform).
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Old Mar 24, 18, 2:44 pm
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I agree. Not flying DEN is crazy. Unfortunately, I'll probably be dropping from Gold to regular member next year due to these cuts.
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Old Mar 24, 18, 9:58 pm
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Originally Posted by dickerso View Post
I agree. Not flying DEN is crazy. Unfortunately, I'll probably be dropping from Gold to regular member next year due to these cuts.
DENís traffic ex-SF Bay Area is less than ORD, which was cut down to once daily, and only ~10% higher than PHX, which never got service to begin with. So cutting DEN is no more crazy than the decisions theyíve already made. If anything itís less crazy because theyíre competing against two big airlines that go hub-to-hub in that market.
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Old Mar 25, 18, 12:37 pm
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Originally Posted by milypan View Post


DEN’s traffic ex-SF Bay Area is less than ORD, which was cut down to once daily, and only ~10% higher than PHX, which never got service to begin with. So cutting DEN is no more crazy than the decisions they’ve already made. If anything it’s less crazy because they’re competing against two big airlines that go hub-to-hub in that market.
I get that, and from a numbers perspective it makes sense. If they see the use of the airplanes more profitable elsewhere, fine. But how can you expect to keep customers of the airline you bought or even increase customers in new markets, with all this UA PR mess how can you not take their customers, when you cut any reasonable routes. If you are based in the bay area, it makes sense for you to stick with UA/WN even if you dislike them as a company, AS will take you to Seattle and LAX, great but beyond that it won't work. At some point AS has to decide if they are just content going N-S, or if they have to make some play to win people over by competing to a hub.
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Old Mar 25, 18, 1:33 pm
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Originally Posted by safari ari View Post
I get that, and from a numbers perspective it makes sense. If they see the use of the airplanes more profitable elsewhere, fine. But how can you expect to keep customers of the airline you bought or even increase customers in new markets, with all this UA PR mess how can you not take their customers, when you cut any reasonable routes. If you are based in the bay area, it makes sense for you to stick with UA/WN even if you dislike them as a company, AS will take you to Seattle and LAX, great but beyond that it won't work. At some point AS has to decide if they are just content going N-S, or if they have to make some play to win people over by competing to a hub.
AS canít be everything to everyone, particularly in the Bay Area. There are a lot of people who donít have regular travel to Denver. For those that do, AS/VX would always struggle to compete against UA with a superior schedule.
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Old Mar 25, 18, 2:01 pm
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While not a fan of the recent cutbacks, I feel AS is somewhat analogous to B6, Focused on one coast, with primarily regional flying. The other market is a select few transcons from their hubs.

The problem is trying to use AS as a replacement for a full network legacy carrier. Sure, you can make it work, but you're better off sticking to the big players for that. I'm finding myself continually booking with UA due to the frequently and coverage of their network although I vowed to give AS a fair shot.
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