[Speculation] SFO-MSP On the chopping block!?
Feb 9, 2018, 7:28 am
#16
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,485
AS can still position itself as the leisure carrier of choice in bay area if it doesn't fly to MSP or SLC. ORD is a different story.
Also not everyone have great hubs like DL that can sustain market share battles in other carrier's backyard.
Feb 9, 2018, 7:40 am
#17
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2001
Programs: DL 1 million, AA 1 mil, HH lapsed Diamond, Marriott Plat
Posts: 28,190
Sorry, but if AS isn't going to try to sustain competitive networks out of SFO and LAX there's was no reason to buy VX. Spending $2.6 Billion - roughly a third of the market cap - to block B6 can't be justified. AS could have added a few ex-California leisure routes organically.
Feb 9, 2018, 7:51 am
#18
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,639
Fares shot up to full fare on a bunch of routes. It was just temporary (an "error") and went back to normal shortly thereafter without any dropped routes.
Feb 9, 2018, 9:13 am
#19
Join Date: May 2006
Location: TUS/PDX
Programs: WN CP/A-List, AS MVPG75K
Posts: 5,798
Feb 9, 2018, 12:47 pm
#20
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Verdi, NV, SFO & Olympic (aka Squaw )Valley.
Programs: Ikon Pass Full + AS Gold + Marriott Titanium + Hilton Gold. Recovering UA Plat. LT lounge AA+DL+UA
Posts: 3,823
I'll also echo that for AS to compete at SFO that means non-stops to major markets, even other airlines fortress hubs.
One other thing: we have to remember that we're all travel nerds. The general public might not yet be aware that AS and VX are one airline operating a hub at SFO. Until we have just Alaska planes on the tarmac, and an Alaska Club, many people won't realize it is a hub. Still will have less than half of UA's market share. It will be interesting to see the stats next quarter that reflect both airlines operating under one certificate. I'd be surprised if AS+VX together don't have more market share than Delta.
source: https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?pn=1
Feb 9, 2018, 1:16 pm
#21
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 1,124
Given that they have already dropped SFO-ORD down to 1 flight a day, it seems it is only a matter of time before MSP is gone. SFO-ORD is obviously a much bigger market and a schedule with only one flight a day is not all that useful--especially when the connecting option through LAX just adds more time leaving earlier and arriving later. MSP already dropped from 2 to 1 before even giving it a chance. Flights between major cities operated once a day have a very difficult time succeeding. It would be different if it were some random small town with no other non-stop options but UA is big in SFO and DL obviously has a hub in MSP. How does AS expect to operate a terrible schedule with few connections on either end and think they are a viable competitor?
It is really difficult to see how AS is really going to make the VX network from SFO work. DEN/ORD/MSP are all weak--just to name three middle of the country cities with AS/VX service from SFO.
It is really difficult to see how AS is really going to make the VX network from SFO work. DEN/ORD/MSP are all weak--just to name three middle of the country cities with AS/VX service from SFO.
Feb 9, 2018, 1:29 pm
#22
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,847
They still fail to come up with any viable strategy to compete in California.
Feb 9, 2018, 2:41 pm
#23
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: PDX
Programs: AS MVP Gold 100K
Posts: 2,990
AS has never seemed to have more than a bare-bones interest in Houston, and I’ve never understood why. It’s the fourth largest city in the country and a global business and energy center, and has strong business and tourist ties to both the west coast and especially Alaska. Seems they could find a decent niche, but have kept it at the usual out-and-back daytime service supplemented with a less-than-daily seasonal red eye turn from SEA only. Doesn’t make much sense to me.
Feb 9, 2018, 2:54 pm
#24
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SFO
Programs: BART Platinum, AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,158
AS has never seemed to have more than a bare-bones interest in Houston, and I’ve never understood why. It’s the fourth largest city in the country and a global business and energy center, and has strong business and tourist ties to both the west coast and especially Alaska. Seems they could find a decent niche, but have kept it at the usual out-and-back daytime service supplemented with a less-than-daily seasonal red eye turn from SEA only. Doesn’t make much sense to me.
Feb 9, 2018, 2:58 pm
#25
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: PDX
Programs: AS MVP Gold 100K
Posts: 2,990
That's a good point – I didn't even think of the obvious Alaska-Houston energy link. I'd even be willing to fly via SEA in some cases, but the returns aren't viable (either 6 am from IAH...which is already an hour away from the other side of the Houston area, or an evening flight that fails to make any connections in SEA).
Feb 9, 2018, 3:08 pm
#26
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SFO
Programs: BART Platinum, AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,158
I think a lot of it has to do with Houston being dominated by UA and WN at either end of the city. But if they’re serious about being the west coast airline of choice, it’s one of those markets they will need to step up in (unless their leisure enthusiast focus is deterring them).
Feb 9, 2018, 3:08 pm
#27
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Austin, Texas
Programs: Airline nobody. Sad!
Posts: 26,062
I think a lot of it has to do with Houston being dominated by UA and WN at either end of the city. But if they’re serious about being the west coast airline of choice, it’s one of those markets they will need to step up in (unless their leisure enthusiast focus is deterring them).
Feb 9, 2018, 3:36 pm
#28
Moderator: Alaska Mileage Plan
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 12,316
they've got 3x daily to DAL from SFO, plus multiple connecting flights via LAX, PDX, and SEA to DAL/DFW, and Dallas is similarly dominated by AA and WN at either end (AA is 68% at DFW and WN is 92% at DAL; UA is 53% at IAH and WN is 93% at HOU). My only guess is that they want to squat on the DAL slots while still serving DFW as well to connect with their "partner" AA.
Feb 9, 2018, 3:38 pm
#29
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,639
It's a tricky balance. They could throw more capacity on these more competitive (/"essential" for business travelers) routes, removing capacity from existing more profitable routes, and lose a lot more money in the near-medium term. There isn't a lot of existing low-hanging fruit out of SFO/LAX.
Feb 9, 2018, 5:06 pm
#30
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SFO
Programs: BART Platinum, AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,158
It's a tricky balance. They could throw more capacity on these more competitive (/"essential" for business travelers) routes, removing capacity from existing more profitable routes, and lose a lot more money in the near-medium term. There isn't a lot of existing low-hanging fruit out of SFO/LAX.