Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > Alaska Airlines | Mileage Plan
Reload this Page >

More Horizon route cuts: The juggling continues

More Horizon route cuts: The juggling continues

Reply

Old Dec 9, 17, 1:57 pm
  #31  
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: EUG
Programs: AS MVP, HH Gold, SPG/Marriott Plat, and a bunch of other stuff I guess
Posts: 26
"The main reason we are able to fly our schedule on time is not so much that we've recovered but that we have less flying on our plate," [CEO Campbell] said.

There you have it. They have fewer cancellations because they dumped a whole bunch of flights, and they haven't really recovered until they reinstate all (or at least most) of them.
pfpdx likes this.
metaldirtnskin is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 9, 17, 3:26 pm
  #32  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Programs: DL 1 million, AA 1 mil, HH lapsed Diamond, Marriott Plat
Posts: 28,174
The article in sltlyamusd's link is clearly worth the read for some eye-opening stats.

A year ago, Horizon was averaging 360 flights per day. This month, that’s down to 295 flights per day, said Alaska Air spokesman Bryan Zidar.

Pilot hiring and training has progressed, with 278 pilots hired, against a goal of adding 670 pilots by the end of next year.

To put that into context, this is Horizon with 60 aircraft. Delta, with ~850 mainline aircraft, will hire about 1100 pilots this year. https://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/...elta_air_lines
3Cforme is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 9, 17, 10:16 pm
  #33  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: EUG/PDX
Programs: AS MVP Au, UA Ag, Marriott Ti, IHG Au, HH Ag, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred, *$ Au
Posts: 3,935
Are the 278 pilots net or gross additions to QX?
rustykettel is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 10, 17, 8:42 am
  #34  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, SPG LT Platinum, UA SIlver, VX eleVAte Gold (RIP)
Posts: 4,325
Originally Posted by rustykettel View Post
Are the 278 pilots net or gross additions to QX?
Most likely gross. They had hired 189 by September and had around 70 in training but had already lost 111 of the 189 by September with presumably more that have left over the last quarter. Thus they are struggling just to keep the cut back schedule in tact.

They expect to lose 30% of their pilots a year to mainline carriers which means that they have to hire 200-240 pilots a year just to keep their head above water. That will be a struggle.
sfozrhfco is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 10, 17, 6:55 pm
  #35  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 270
Originally Posted by sfozrhfco View Post
Most likely gross. They had hired 189 by September and had around 70 in training but had already lost 111 of the 189 by September with presumably more that have left over the last quarter. Thus they are struggling just to keep the cut back schedule in tact.

They expect to lose 30% of their pilots a year to mainline carriers which means that they have to hire 200-240 pilots a year just to keep their head above water. That will be a struggle.
Bit of hyperbole here. I'm not going to get into specifics but as someone who deals daily with the outcome of this situation, I can tell you that one, yes, pilot staffing at QX will be a challenge for the foreseeable future, as it will be for every regional carrier. Two, we are not struggling to keep the reduced schedule intact. That is absolutely false.

It used to be that AS would simply say, QX, here's what you're going to fly for us. It didn't matter whether we had the pilots to fly that schedule or not. We were left to deal with it. See: July - October. Then someone got wise to that not being a particularly smart way to do business. Now, we say AS, this is what we're able to fly, give us a schedule that fits that, and they do. As the hiring and training gets under control, the schedule will slowly ramp back up, but we're still a year out (at least) from being at our previous levels. The goal is to operate what we're schedule to, every day, and beginning with November, we have. QX has multiple crew bases and I can tell you that every single day I work, I've started my shift with reserve pilots in nearly all of them, at the airport, and often more at home. That isn't struggling, that's supporting the schedule we have. Our November and MTD December controllable completion rate of 99.7%, coupled with excellent OT performance, is proof of that.

Nobody will argue that we're not operating flights customers want us to operate. There have been multiple schedule changes and thousands of customers negatively affected. I get it. But the doom and gloom about the schedule we're operating, right now, is unfounded. August? September? October? I wouldn't have purchased a ticket on my own airline. I now would without giving it a second thought.
pbelmore and rowsign like this.
SOCguy is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 10, 17, 7:08 pm
  #36  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: OneSky Alliance Elite+ with Zirconium and oak leaf cluster, Braniff Unobtainium
Posts: 16,954
Thanks for showing back up and giving us the skinny. I dare say 2018 should be exciting times for QX (getting back to where they were) and AS (surmounting the VX acquisition, navigating the single customer service system without a meltdown). Good luck.
eponymous_coward is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 10, 17, 8:16 pm
  #37  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, SPG LT Platinum, UA SIlver, VX eleVAte Gold (RIP)
Posts: 4,325
Originally Posted by SOCguy View Post
As the hiring and training gets under control, the schedule will slowly ramp back up, but we're still a year out (at least) from being at our previous levels.
These cuts were sold as a temporary measure. Temporary cuts which were going to be a few weeks, then months, are now extended to years with lots of new hires needed just to keep the now reduced schedule. QX management themselves said that they are losing 30% of their pilots each year so is the plan to keep cutting the schedule if they can't hire and train new pilots fast enough? Yes, I suppose it is better to face reality and only operate a reduced schedule but this was not how it was sold when this mess started. As the bar for achieving success keeps getting lower and lower, it does make it easier to achieve.
sfozrhfco is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 10, 17, 9:13 pm
  #38  
FlyerTalk Evangelist, Moderator, Information Desk, Ambassador, Alaska Airlines
Hilton Contributor BadgeIHG Contributor Badge
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: ANC, MRI
Programs: AS MVP Gold75K, AS 1MM, Maika`i Card, AGR, HH Gold, Hertz PC, Marriott LTG, SPG Gold, CO, 7H, BA, 8E
Posts: 41,061
Always appreciate a peek behind the curtain

Thanks for your contributions, both to FT and the AAG.
beckoa is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 10, 17, 10:17 pm
  #39  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 2,302
Originally Posted by SOCguy View Post
Bit of hyperbole here. I'm not going to get into specifics but as someone who deals daily with the outcome of this situation, I can tell you that one, yes, pilot staffing at QX will be a challenge for the foreseeable future, as it will be for every regional carrier. Two, we are not struggling to keep the reduced schedule intact. That is absolutely false.

It used to be that AS would simply say, QX, here's what you're going to fly for us. It didn't matter whether we had the pilots to fly that schedule or not. We were left to deal with it. See: July - October. Then someone got wise to that not being a particularly smart way to do business. Now, we say AS, this is what we're able to fly, give us a schedule that fits that, and they do. As the hiring and training gets under control, the schedule will slowly ramp back up, but we're still a year out (at least) from being at our previous levels. The goal is to operate what we're schedule to, every day, and beginning with November, we have. QX has multiple crew bases and I can tell you that every single day I work, I've started my shift with reserve pilots in nearly all of them, at the airport, and often more at home. That isn't struggling, that's supporting the schedule we have. Our November and MTD December controllable completion rate of 99.7%, coupled with excellent OT performance, is proof of that.

Nobody will argue that we're not operating flights customers want us to operate. There have been multiple schedule changes and thousands of customers negatively affected. I get it. But the doom and gloom about the schedule we're operating, right now, is unfounded. August? September? October? I wouldn't have purchased a ticket on my own airline. I now would without giving it a second thought.
Thanks for your contribution. The challenge for QX is whether they've lost too much to Skywest. AAG has shown they have no qualms about using Skywest in place of QX, when QX can't deliver. And some of the Embraer deliveries with long-term CPAs they've given over to Skywest, do not bode well for QX. And these can't be clawed back in the short term.
flytoeat is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 10, 17, 10:50 pm
  #40  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: EUG/PDX
Programs: AS MVP Au, UA Ag, Marriott Ti, IHG Au, HH Ag, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred, *$ Au
Posts: 3,935
Originally Posted by beckoa View Post
Always appreciate a peek behind the curtain

Thanks for your contributions, both to FT and the AAG.
Ditto. Thank you!
rustykettel is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 11, 17, 1:34 am
  #41  
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: SEA
Programs: AS G75K, DL GM, IHG Plat, HHonors Diamond
Posts: 805
SOC thank you for the insight. Nobody here wants to see AS/QX fail. I hope AS is willing to spend $$ to invest in QX's future, and trying to get ahead of the industry-wide pilot shortage. Subcontracting out to OO is a stopgap measure, not a long term solution if AS wants to keep QX as a viable subsidiary.
BW Flyer is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 13, 17, 5:21 pm
  #42  
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: EUG/PDX
Programs: AS MVP Au, UA Ag, Marriott Ti, IHG Au, HH Ag, Nexus, Pilot FlyingJ Preferred, *$ Au
Posts: 3,935
LAX-MFR is still gone but not to worry. UA is starting 2X daily service 4/9, along with 1X daily service to RDM and also to MSO & FCA (didn't see what sort of levels those two are getting).
rustykettel is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 16, 17, 3:58 pm
  #43  
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 945
I just look forward to when PSC to PDX comes back

And hopefully it stays at its often sub $150 round trip cost. So nice to trek down there for a day in the city and know the cost of the flight was cheaper then gas & a hotel overnight.... AND get to fall asleep in my own bed at the end of a day at the zoo or science center or Cirque Du Soleil touring show or something. The times were perfect (like ~7am departure I think and ~9pm return) and the price was right!
acarney is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 16, 17, 4:06 pm
  #44  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, SPG LT Platinum, UA SIlver, VX eleVAte Gold (RIP)
Posts: 4,325
[QUOTE=acarney;29182448]I just look forward to when PSC to PDX comes back
/QUOTE]

Keep your fingers crossed. 2019 is not that far off
sfozrhfco is offline  
Reply With Quote
Old Dec 16, 17, 10:41 pm
  #45  
FlyerTalk Evangelist, Moderator, Information Desk, Ambassador, Alaska Airlines
Hilton Contributor BadgeIHG Contributor Badge
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: ANC, MRI
Programs: AS MVP Gold75K, AS 1MM, Maika`i Card, AGR, HH Gold, Hertz PC, Marriott LTG, SPG Gold, CO, 7H, BA, 8E
Posts: 41,061
Originally Posted by sfozrhfco View Post
Originally Posted by acarney View Post
I just look forward to when PSC to PDX comes back
Keep your fingers crossed. 2019 is not that far off
So what comes first, PSC-PDX resuming, or the flagship rooftop AL opening in N?
beckoa is offline  
Reply With Quote

Thread Tools
Search this Thread