Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > Alaska Airlines | Mileage Plan
Reload this Page >

Alaska Air stock falls sharply on difficulties with Virgin, Horizon Air

Alaska Air stock falls sharply on difficulties with Virgin, Horizon Air

Old Oct 28, 2017, 9:38 am
  #121  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,834
Originally Posted by chrisl137
I can get nonstops from BUR to SJC and PDX at convenient times and prices.
I like the E175 better than the 737 - no middle seats, underseat storage isn't reduced at the aisle seats.
No need to check in at T-24:00:00.
Actually jetsuiteX is the best choice from BUR to OAK/SJC/CCR/LAS as they use a private terminal, you can get there 10 minutes before the flight leaves and get free wifi/good snacks, with no middle seat, and be out of the airport in seconds.
sfozrhfco is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 9:40 am
  #122  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Programs: AA, WN, UA, Bonvoy, Hertz
Posts: 2,491
Originally Posted by chrisl137
No need to check in at T-24:00:00.
What I didn't expect was WN to pay so much attention to the California flyers. Let's be real, WN has had a tough time filling seats in CA (public $29 sales and lower redemption cost flights). If WN is having a tough time, AS/VX must be in worse shape. I was one of VXs first flyers with others, so this is my bread and butter.

Don't like T24 checkin? Free A-List for rest of 2017 and easy to get for 2018.

Thinking twice about taking a stop or no FC? Have a CP for 69 dollars for all of 2018.

Oh and we will talk about that AS destination you love, Hawaii, every week in the media even though it is probably 2019 before we can go there and yes, it will fly from California. I don't remember Southwest being so early talking about a destination in storytelling detail. It is all to attack AS.

If Southwest can covert a few more one stops to non-stop to PNW from California, there is no hope I think for AS. I think SWA forced mass plane retirement was a bit of a temporary bummer, but they gave enough gifts to keep the kids happy and patient for at least all of 2018. What will SWA do for 2019? We shall find out.

To me, AA is still asleep on this issue and UA is not relevant. I really think SWA thinks they can take down AS and get those flyers and volume. Some may think otherwise, but SWA is sending me an email about the free CP every week and removed the invitation aspect by putting it on the website! This is nuts for them. How can any California flyer take anyone but SWA on all their midcons until end of 2018?

Rasheed
rasheed is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 10:41 am
  #123  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,337
Originally Posted by BearX220
Of course, but take a 50-flight-per-year customer in, say, PHX with a nationwide trip agenda. Given a choice between having that customer fly 20/50 flights on AS or 50/50 on AA, which would AS prefer? Do they want a piece of that customer or not?

Again, how do these purity filters and base-shaving strategies help support the company? Especially when it's now ballooned into a 230-aircraft deal with no fortress market, embattled even on home ground (PNW) and in deep trouble in California.

They need more than a cohort of King / Snohomish / Pierce fans, people who don't travel to DL or AA destinations, to make that go.
How many domestic partners did Southwest have? Oh, right, zero.

Where have Southwests fortress markets been? Dallas? Houston? The Bay Area? Phoenix? Denver? Fort Lauderdale?

While were at it, does Jet Blue have fortress markets in New York, Fort Lauderdale or Boston?

Alaska will be fine if they concentrate on some basics. Problem is they arent doing that at all in part because the merger, in part because their own damn fault. Horizons a dumpster fire at the worst possible time; they have all the downside from killing off the VX brand and none of the synergies or ability to have a unified customer experience/AS brand you paid good money to research and develop right now. Oh, and moving into California means EVERYONE guns at them: AA because of JFK transcons and LAX, UA because of SFO and LAX, WN because of intra-CA and LAX, DL because of SEA and LAX, B6 because of Mint. So fail to execute and everyone can take a shot.

That being said, I love how a profitable company is doomed because WN/no partners/no lie flats. Youd think they declared the dividend was suspended and theyre losing money...
eponymous_coward is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 10:51 am
  #124  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,361
Originally Posted by BearX220
Of course, but take a 50-flight-per-year customer in, say, PHX with a nationwide trip agenda. Given a choice between having that customer fly 20/50 flights on AS or 50/50 on AA, which would AS prefer? Do they want a piece of that customer or not?

Again, how do these purity filters and base-shaving strategies help support the company? Especially when it's now ballooned into a 230-aircraft deal with no fortress market, embattled even on home ground (PNW) and in deep trouble in California.

They need more than a cohort of King / Snohomish / Pierce fans, people who don't travel to DL or AA destinations, to make that go.
If theres someone in PHX that flies 20 trips a year to Seattle or Portland, Im sure AS would love to have their business. Is this customer segment a priority for AS? No. A business cant effectively target such small customer segments. If this segment is well served by the same products and services as the core segment, thats great.

AS will never be the best airline or mileage program for customers outside of its core West Coast markets. Just like United will never be the best airline for people living in the Southeast, JetBlue will never be the best airline for people living on the West Coast, etc, etc.

Trying to be everything to everyone is a crappy strategy.
fly18725 is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 10:55 am
  #125  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,834
Originally Posted by eponymous_coward

That being said, I love how a profitable company is doomed because WN/no partners/no lie flats. You’d think they declared the dividend was suspended and they’re losing money...
Their problem is that every week that goes by they are less profitable and costs are set to rise much, much higher which will squeeze them further— especially as competitive forces batter them from all sides driving down yields further. If an economic downturn hits next year, they may well have to cut the dividend and batten down the hatches. Yes, most of their problems are self induced. They didn’t need to be in the position they are in now but being in denial about the problems at Horizon was not a wake up call. They haven’t even come to start to think about the problems with the Virgin network and how to not make that a weight around their necks.

All is not lost and management may wake up and do something. The earnings call did not prove that to be the case. They are still surprised people are not overpaying and flocking to the amazing VX/AS entity which is the best thing to come to California since the invention of the internet. They are in a weak position and by floundering they are making it easy for competitors to hit them while they are down.
sfozrhfco is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 1:30 pm
  #126  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SFO
Programs: BART Platinum, AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,157
Originally Posted by fly18725
Trying to be everything to everyone is a crappy strategy.
I dont think anyone here is arguing that AS should be everything to everyone. Were just asking them to be something to someone.

They dont have a good network, they dont have great prices, and they dont offer a superior product. The most you can really say is that theyre not terrible on any one dimension. Small ULCCs have had success by eschewing a comprehensive network and simply offering point-to-point service in various markets i.e. being relevant in these markets, using AS lingo at very low prices. ASs cost structure wont allow that, but they also dont offer anything that would induce many travelers to pay a premium.

I dont think theyre doomed, but I have a hard time seeing any strategy or vision from them right now.
milypan is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 1:49 pm
  #127  
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,608
I don’t think anyone here is arguing that AS should be everything to everyone. We’re just asking them to be something to someone.
Alaska airlines has a few very strong things going for them which makes me absolutely loyal to them over any other airlines.

To set context, I'm a seattle based flyer who typically looks for the cheapest deals but would likely value the following list as any west-coast/alaska/hawaii based flyer:

- Free changes (2 months out) and price drop refunds!!!! In a world where AA/UA/DL/JetBlue cost so much for changes, and southwest isn't on google flights for quick fare drop alerts (making it mostly meaningless unless you check daily), for a cheap-deal flyer, this is absolutely invaluable for anyone who flies cheap. Very cheap $25 same-day changes. If I see a route where Delta/JetBlue are costing similar to alaska, i'll pick alaska just on the off-chance that the fares drop/plans change and I can get a refund.

- Very easy to attain mvp status without revenue requirements, specially if you take like 1 roundtrip to middle-east/asia in the winter and 1 roundtrip to europe in the summer, mixed in with a few flights around the west-coast etc. Or use a companion pass for a hawaii vacation etc. It is shockingly easy actually to get status, I've gotten mvp last several years without even trying because i have some family in asia and take a random international vacation otherwise on a cheap icelandair flight. MVP gives the spacious 6th row seating if you book far-out. I've never not been upgraded to premium economy as a lowly mvp.

- Very few cases of schedule-change saturdays, something which I've been screwed on all 3 UA/DL/AA if i book far-out (which i do, being a cheap revenue flyer). JetBlue and southwest are better here though in terms of no schedule changes. This is important because like most people I have a job and if I book a 5pm Friday flight, it means I can only catch 5pm, not 4pm after the dreaded schedule change.

- Great award chart for cathay/japanair, something that used to be AA niche, and great award chart with availability for iceland/condor to europe, for a 7-8 hour flight, great going to south-america with LAN/AA, and decent if-not-great availability to asia/africa with emirates. Being seattle-based, stopovers give a free addon. Serves my purposes just right.


I don't know why people don't like alaska. I love it for everything its gotten me.

Last edited by nomiiiii; Oct 28, 2017 at 2:03 pm
nomiiiii is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 5:52 pm
  #128  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 12,550
Originally Posted by sfozrhfco
Actually jetsuiteX is the best choice from BUR to OAK/SJC/CCR/LAS as they use a private terminal, you can get there 10 minutes before the flight leaves and get free wifi/good snacks, with no middle seat, and be out of the airport in seconds.
Nice that they've added SJC and OAK since the last time I looked. CCR was a lot less useful for me. Now if they'd do PDX...

BUR is so small that you don't have to show up much more than 10 minutes before departure for regular commercial flights, either.

edit: and one more thing AS has going: $25 to check a bike (and other large sports equipment)

Last edited by chrisl137; Oct 28, 2017 at 6:07 pm
chrisl137 is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 6:21 pm
  #129  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,834
@nomiiiii AS has the home team advantage in SEA so that is not all that relevant. The issue is not Alaska or Seattle, the issue is the VX network and QX which are both dragging AS down. It is very hard to convince people to change carriers when you literally have nothing to offer. If people have no miles with Mileage Plan the FF program does not matter. Elites on JetBlue get free changes all the time. I use that benefit frequently. Even being based on the West Coast, I find the Jetblue program most useful to me now that I havent bothered to get AS status.

They have to do do something to attract people in California beyond telling people next year you have an even worse product coming your way.

Last edited by sfozrhfco; Oct 28, 2017 at 6:36 pm
sfozrhfco is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 6:31 pm
  #130  
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: SFO
Programs: BART Platinum, AA Plat Pro
Posts: 1,157
Originally Posted by nomiiiii
To set context, I'm a seattle based flyer who typically looks for the cheapest deals but would likely value the following list as any west-coast/alaska/hawaii based flyer:
Yes, thats exactly the issue that many of us are emphasizing. In the PNW, AS had the best network and, until recently, very limited competition. But coming into CA they have a worse network, and far more competition than theyve ever faced. What worked in the PNW doesnt translate into success in CA.

- Free changes (2 months out) and price drop refunds!!!!
As youre already aware, WN offers free changes up to at least T-1.

- Very easy to attain mvp status without revenue requirements,
Agreed. Unfortunately, trying to build status on an airline with a weak network is rarely an attractive proposition.

Very few cases of schedule-change saturdays, something which I've been screwed on all 3 UA/DL/AA if i book far-out (which i do, being a cheap revenue flyer).
Ive flown over 500k miles on UA over the last decade and never had an issue with this. And believe me, I hate UA as much as anyone else out there.

- Great award chart for cathay/japanair, something that used to be AA niche, and great award chart with availability for iceland/condor to europe, for a 7-8 hour flight, great going to south-america with LAN/AA, and decent if-not-great availability to asia/africa with emirates.
Overall I agree that MP is the best earn/redemption program in the US. But I see no theoretical argument or empirical evidence that this matters to most people. If it did, the US3 wouldnt have gutted their programs, because its pretty cheap to award miles, and a generous plan would provide a competitive advantage.

I don't know why people don't like alaska. I love it for everything its gotten me.
I like AS too. I want them to succeed in CA. But I understand that the things they offer that I like are not sufficient to offset a weak network and wont induce most people to pay a premium. Hence the concern about where theyre headed.

Last edited by milypan; Oct 28, 2017 at 6:39 pm
milypan is offline  
Old Oct 28, 2017, 9:16 pm
  #131  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,485
Originally Posted by chrisl137
Nice that they've added SJC and OAK since the last time I looked. CCR was a lot less useful for me. Now if they'd do PDX...

BUR is so small that you don't have to show up much more than 10 minutes before departure for regular commercial flights, either.

edit: and one more thing AS has going: $25 to check a bike (and other large sports equipment)
no boarding lines, no tsa and no waiting on either end. They really just need to get the word out somehow.

I really wish they continue to build up. Seems like a great service that I wish existed on east coast. If they can add flights to one of the San Diego area airport and SMF from BUR, they'd have all the intra california route covered. And the price is very competitive to Southwest.
tphuang is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2017, 2:32 am
  #132  
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: TUS/PDX
Programs: WN CP/A-List, AS MVPG75K
Posts: 5,798
Originally Posted by tphuang
If they can add flights to one of the San Diego area airport and SMF from BUR, they'd have all the intra california route covered. And the price is very competitive to Southwest.
Honest question: how does the schedule AS has compare to WN for your needs?
tusphotog is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2017, 5:23 am
  #133  
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 597
Originally Posted by tphuang
no boarding lines, no tsa and no waiting on either end. They really just need to get the word out somehow.

I really wish they continue to build up. Seems like a great service that I wish existed on east coast. If they can add flights to one of the San Diego area airport and SMF from BUR, they'd have all the intra california route covered. And the price is very competitive to Southwest.
Nope. Still no decent service LAX-FAT or SFO-FAT or even OAK-FAT. There's both a large O&D pool there if prices are low and plenty of east-west connecting traffic in the Valley. Alaska only seems to connect thru SEA and SAN, which are inconvenient to east-west travelers and of no use to those folks in the Bay area and the Southland who would gladly scrap the four-plus hour drive if they had a decently priced, convenient alternative.
HomerJay is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2017, 5:30 am
  #134  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Northern Calif./Eastern Ida.
Programs: Amethyst Premier Plutonium Medallion
Posts: 20,566
Originally Posted by tusphotog
Honest question: how does the schedule AS has compare to WN for your needs?
this. i love the AS service add to SAN from SMF, but they fly 3x daily. WN fluctuates between 8-12x i think depending on the day and the time of year.

my girlfriend does 100% of her business travel within CA on business select fares. i poked her with the idea of taking AS to SAN when i joined her last trip, but to make her meeting we would've been on the 6am departure. instead, we took a leisurely 8:45am departure and she was into her 11am meeting on the waterfront with time for a pit stop at Starbucks.

in the past 3 weeks she has flown WN to BUR, SAN, ONT, and SNA for work...all on refundable fares, and all within an hour of the time she wanted to leave her origin/destination. let's be real -- it's going to be a LONG time before AS builds up to the point of winning her as a potential customer.

i was already jumping ship for DL and will make PM this year, but with the easy-peasy companion pass offer and a very important new nonstop route for me personally being added @ SMF, WN is just becoming too compelling to ignore when it comes to domestic travel. even making A list is not really all that challenging with a round trip a month basically.
PV_Premier is offline  
Old Oct 29, 2017, 6:24 am
  #135  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: B6 Mosaic, Bonvoy LT Titanium (x SPG LT), IHG Spire, UA Silver
Posts: 5,834
Originally Posted by HomerJay
Nope. Still no decent service LAX-FAT or SFO-FAT or even OAK-FAT. There's both a large O&D pool there if prices are low and plenty of east-west connecting traffic in the Valley. Alaska only seems to connect thru SEA and SAN, which are inconvenient to east-west travelers and of no use to those folks in the Bay area and the Southland who would gladly scrap the four-plus hour drive if they had a decently priced, convenient alternative.
What you quoted was referring to JetsuiteX just so you know.
sfozrhfco is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.