Asquared1

Uneducated guess from looking at a lot of award availability is that the SAN<>NRT is more at risk (unless they are getting some subsidization as I think they are SAN's only Asian flight)

evergrn

Also just a guess on my part, but I think both are at risk.

But, as you say, SAN chips a lot into new transcontinental flights (especially when they first begin) and I'm sure they're willing to continue to do quite a lot to ensure that flight stays. So my prediction is that the YVR flight is in greater jeopardy.

Given the amount of award availability, I think it's fair to assume the SAN flight isn't doing awesome. I'm not surprised, but I didn't expect it either. That's the only flight to Asia, and there're tons of Japanese in San Diego. And between AS and AA, there's a fair number of flights to feed at SAN.

skimthetrees

I find AS miles have great value for premium awards on partners.

I would personally look for non US carriers first since they most likely will offer a better experience. BA F and J is frequently available (but comes with high fees). JL J has a lot of availability. JL F far out or close in. CX seems to have quite a bit of J if you are flexible, F available mostly close in.

You mentioned AA. You are right, there is not much there, but if you keep checking and keep your ear to the ground you might get lucky. For example, I was doing speculative searches on AS recently and came across a new AA route - ORD-VCE. There is some availability even next summer on this route. 4J available 7/30 for example.

Pick a couple of places you would like to go that AS partners fly to and keep searching. AS miles are very useful but you sometimes have to put some work in searching.