tusphotog

I've noticed something really interesting on a couple AA codeshares out of Phoenix lately. All the AA codeshares used to sit well in excess of $1,000. Seems like some are getting repriced now. Of course, there's zero seat availability since AA blocks most of the plane.

PHX-PDX (still one AS nonstop for 3/4 of the year) is priced outrageously high ($400+ in late June, and WN/AA are around $250).
PHX-SEA-PDX (AS to SEA, QX or AS mainline to PDX) was priced between $250 and $550 depending on flights.
PHX-SJC-PDX (AA to SJC, AS to PDX), routinely hits $1,500 o/w in coach.
PHX-SLC-PDX (AA to SLC, AS to PDX), $320, though this is routinely the "cheapest" codeshare I've seen on this route
PHX-SAN-PDX (AA to SAN, AS to PDX), $320
PHX-SNA-PDX (AA to SNA, AS to PDX), $712
PHX-SMF-PDX (AA to SMF, QX to PDX--will there be a crew to fly the Q400?) $320

I priced these out for a one way trip booked ~3 days out around June 27. Looks like they're similarly priced today for July 14. Of course, the WN and AA nonstops are running $200 and WN has some decent times that work with my schedule.

Of course, if I want to fly to CLT or MCO, it costs me almost $2,000 and takes anywhere between 21 and 30 hours, and I get to fly PHX-SEA-ORD-CLT or PHX-SEA/PDX-SFO-MCO.

czpdx

I was also shocked to see AS offering me DL flights on hub routes like PDX-SLC. They don't show up until I click on view by price. But it's bizarre to see any DL flights mixed in, especially on routes that AS flies itself. Oh, and at totally normal prices, too.

WebTraveler

It shows that Alaska brings a lot of business to AA and folks are concerned.

WebTraveler

Why? Because it allows Alaska or America (or anyone) for that matter to reach a larger percentage of customers or provide better and more flight times than they can offer by themselves.

question #2 , see answer to #1

brp

Actually, shows quite the opposite to me as the AS folks here seem quite a bit more concerned than the AA folks.

Cheers.

GSP flyer

I will say this, though; the DOJ has left AS rather in a pickle with the restrictions placed upon it post VX deal. It's not like there are any independent players left with a vast Midwestern network they could plug into because the DOJ let AA buy TWA, Delta suck up Northwest, and United eat Continental, unless you labor under the illusion that Sun Country's the greatest thing since sliced bread.

The Northeast and Caribbean would be manageable with a partnership with JetBlue, but that's going to take time and a vast amount of massaging of bruised egos post VX deal. There's no good entry point into the Southeast at all, AirTran having been acquired by the Canyon Blue Borg. In fact, in general, most great growth opportunities are either now legacy fortress hubs or occupied by Southwest.

I'm not sure how AS moves out of the niche it's now in; it's effectively now the mirror image of USAir, circa 1995, and we know how that story ended up. It may take an eventual breakup of the megacarriers to see significant forward progress. While having 10 network carriers that could get you from Raleigh to Los Angeles in 1999* was overkill, having only three and three quarters serious national airlines has been way too much shrinkage in the other direction. AA/TW, US/HP, and DL/NW were completely defensible. It was the CO/UA deal that started the true lunacy; stop that one and things are in an infinitely more rational place.

*US Airways, Delta, United, American, Continental, Northwest, Southwest, TWA, America West, Midway

Eastbay1K

(1) AS might not need to move out of its now-larger niche; and
(2) AS is a much healthier carrier with a much better reputation than US ever had.

AS can still make a good go of it, even not being all things to all people. Their key hubs are more recession resistant and more recovery resilient than just about any other airline's hubs. They also have the cash cow known as Alaska, the state. They have limited exposure in most of their new markets - they don't work, they pull out, with really no capital expense wasted. Furthermore, they still have a mileage-based program.

I don't quite get how AS is the mirror image of US ca. 1995. HP acquired US, and then faux US acquired AA, with HP management running the show. So, HP, a thrice-bankrupt airline, is now one of the world's major carriers, with AA lipstick.

WebTraveler

Yes, we are concerned, because Alaska hosed us. The whole merger with Virgin America really screwed us up. It brings nothing to flyers in PDX, except headaches of now searching out a new carrier for our flights to the east, which will have an effect of our west coast flying as well.

Combo of Alaska and AA gave us everything we needed.

brp

Oh, I hear you. As AA EXP for like 12 years now, this helped a lot as flying to Hawai'i and PNW are big for us, and crediting AS to AA was necessary. Was planning to remain EXP for the foreseeable future.

This changes that for us. While I can definitely see even more impact for someone like you in PDX, it changes our landscape as well to shooting for MVP 75K and falling back to AA Lifetime Plat. Not our ideal, but better than trying to do all of it on AA plus getting some sort of AS status.

Cheers.

BOSTravels

How does AS compare to B6 with respect to fleet size, pax shipped around, gross sales, income, etc.? Comparable?

ashill

From Wikipedia, which I'd trust at least approximately for the basic numbers, AS+VX have a fleet of 217 (737s and A320 series) plus 78 Q400s and E175s operated by Horizon and Skywest (about 40,093 seats total -- uncertainty because I don't know how the different configurations of 739s are distributed at the moment). B6 has 233 A320s, A321s, and E190s (32,337-35,660 total seats depending on how many of each configuration).

In 2016, AS had 32.8 billion RPMs (excluding Horizon/Skywest), VX 12.1 billion (44.9 billion between the two), and B6 45.6 billion (source: BTS).

You can look up their revenue from their quarterly investor statements.

I'm a little surprised at how comparable they are.

BOSTravels

Thanks for the data.
This strengthens my view that AS and B6 are basically Coastal Mirror Copies of eachother: Each serves "their" high $$$ millennial cities (AS West Coast, B6 East Coast), each has significant deals with international-only airlines, and each doesn't bother with the center of the country.

lalala

Was an EXP for the similar amount of time and 75K or Gold since 2001. We (TH and myself) qualify based on AS metal alone, so we're okay. Anything else we fly = AA, BA or OW we still buy through AA or change our number to AA after ticketing (awards). As long was we can still get preferred seating, some semblance of redeemable miles on AA and lounge access. We do live in Seattle, so that helps. If this changes, we'll figure something else out.

I look at the ticket prices in and out of the WAS airports every week and while connecting through MCI or ORD would save me 40 bucks, the lack of any UG on the AA leg or the amount of time I would spend making the connection is/was not worth it for us.

The ability to redeposit tickets into my wallet, make changes at the last minute, actually get the lowest fare guarantee, redeposit awards at will and for free are definitely worth our AS loyalty.

One thing we have one in the past, and yes, it sucks, is to buy two tickets - take AS to one AA hub and then start the next journey on AA. Not sure how that works for the rest of you , but I rarely find starting in SEA saves me a ton of money.

just my .02 worth.

lala

brp

Yeah - knew I hadn't seen you on the AA board in quite a while- now I know where you've gone

For us, we'll fly AA/BA/OW for flights that we can't get to with AS (just as always), but we'll credit to AS since there is really no reason to credit to AA. We don't need miles there, and will use existing LT status, so no value in crediting to AA. If we credit to AS, then we need to fly fewer flights (especially in F/P) for 75K status.

Cheers.

berliner5000

I think Alaska made a HUGE mistake with the VX merger. Growing pains aside, it's not the same airline that it was 2 years ago and I'm sure the AS lifers would even say that it's not the airline that they flew 20 years ago.

As an AS MVP with the occasional AA flight (as in maybe once or twice a year), I'm pretty bummed out by this change. While AA is not my first choice, it was nice when I flew AA to have complimentary access to MCE seats 24 hours before departure and the free checked bag.

I do believe as an MVP though, this will thin the MP elite herd and bring back my SMF-SEA upgrades that I have missed over the past year. This change will unfortunately hurt my upgrade chances on DL (as a Diamond) since I believe that many PNW flyers will shift over to DL.

This is a lose-lose situation for Alaska. They haven't really cut the partnership (with international travel) but have made it so complicated that people won't waste their time trying to figure it out.