QX cutting flights due to pilot shortage

Old Oct 7, 2017, 6:45 pm
  #481  
 
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so basically AS management continues to live under delusion that this will get resolved magically with time while not doing much to address the situation. Lovely.

Just waiting for the AS and VX mainline pilot situation to come to a boiling point.
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Old Oct 7, 2017, 7:01 pm
  #482  
 
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I'm assuming a lot of people on FT know about why there is a growing pilot shortage in the US, but I fail to see the point of QX pilots ragging on Tilden in the Seattle Times for failing to address it (if that turns out to be true).

Tilden has wildly screwed up the company's response to the cancellations, sure, but this isn't just a QX problem. They are merely the first airline to experience what is going to become an epidemic within a decade. Most of that centers on the fact that they are a largely turboprop airline, and regional pilots hate turboprops when trying to get a job at the mainline jet carriers.

Guaranteed: if nothing changes, by 2030 every single regional carrier is going to be having staffing issues and the mainlines will start to suffer as well until the industry changes the way it conducts training/costs, or if Congress reduces the hour requirements again which it probably will.

Domestic air traffic is growing at a record pace, pilot supply isn't keeping anywhere close. Something has got to give or its only going to get worse and not just at QX. This editorial should be to the FAA, Congress, and the lobbyists too, not just Tilden.
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Old Oct 7, 2017, 7:35 pm
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Sounds like a pay raise is in order. That's market forces for ya! It works both ways.
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Old Oct 7, 2017, 7:57 pm
  #484  
 
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I know a couple people who have been flying as a hobby for years and even done a significant amount of flight instructing to help pay for it. They have enough hours to fly for a regional, but they have another reasonable job and not much desire to spend nights away from their family.

I'm sure, say, $200K/yr will be well more than enough to get them off the sidelines. There certainly are enough of them to cover the current shortage a few times over.

We're talking a significant increase in air ticket prices at those pay rates though.

In the long term, airlines are just going to have to suck it up and pay for the training, probably through loans that are forgiven after a certain number of years working, as well as paying a reasonable salary for all pilots.
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Old Oct 7, 2017, 9:12 pm
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Originally Posted by tphuang
so basically AS management continues to live under delusion that this will get resolved magically with time while not doing much to address the situation. Lovely.

Just waiting for the AS and VX mainline pilot situation to come to a boiling point.
Exactly. The problem is that the large airlines used regionals to cut costs. If the regionals paid mainline wages and benefits then this problem would go away. Quality of life for pilots/other regional airline workers would be higher and flights that would truly make a profit on the routes they are flying would operate. Those that are not financially viable would go away. Airlines want to pay less than bus driver wages to employees at regionals to provide cheap feed. This may have worked in an era of very cheap oil and an oversupply of workers. The economics of this model no longer works.

AS is finding that they can not provide cheap feeder flights through QX and are trying to outsource to Skywest but this only bides them some time. They are not willing to radically change the model and they are not being honest with their customers by pretending this is a short term issue when it is not. The AS/VX pilot arbitration was supposed to be concluded this month according to the last earnings call. If the AS/VX pilots get a substantial raise, this only widens the gap with QX and makes it that much more undesirable to stay with QX for the long term. With full bonuses paid out in a year, the best case scenario is that people will take the training and the bonus and head to a better paying gig a year from now.

AS had a good thing going and now they are alienating some of their best customers and not serving their VX customers either. They also keep saying that everything is going smoothly and there is nothing to see here. I don't see this ending well for them--especially with their desire to expand from California at a time when they have no resources to do so without negatively impacting their core pre-acquision markets.
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 7:21 am
  #486  
 
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Originally Posted by jk88usa
I'm assuming a lot of people on FT know about why there is a growing pilot shortage in the US, but I fail to see the point of QX pilots ragging on Tilden in the Seattle Times for failing to address it (if that turns out to be true).
I disagree - the reality is there is a pilot shortage, and while Alaska has fumbled its response to that, the real issue is the Virgin America purchase and the expansion of Horizon routes (i.e. Alaska brass has stated by the end of 2018 that Alaska will add another 30 city pairs from SFO mostly using Skywest and Horizon) How can Alaska do this when it cannot even cover the existing routes?

This all just makes the whole issue worse. This all falls on Brad Tilden and his inability to cope with reality. I am pissed as hell at Tilden and I think he simply exacerbated this problem badly. Alaska was not equipped to purchase Virgin America and greatly expand SFO. It is that simple. The purchase of Virgin Air has caused Alaska to lose its codeshare and frequent flyer tie ins with America. This is a huge loss. So while Tilden probably walks away with a huge paycheck related to this purchase the rest of us get screwed - and screwed again and again.

Tiden took a very good airline and wrecked it. Sure, he's bringing in a new market and customers, but Brad Tilden has completely screwed the rest of us. From the article it looks like Tilden is screwing his Horizon pilots as well. Brad Tilden is the problem.

Last edited by WebTraveler; Oct 8, 2017 at 7:29 am
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 11:26 am
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Originally Posted by sfozrhfco
AS is finding that they can not provide cheap feeder flights through QX and are trying to outsource to Skywest but this only bides them some time. They are not willing to radically change the model and they are not being honest with their customers by pretending this is a short term issue when it is not. The AS/VX pilot arbitration was supposed to be concluded this month according to the last earnings call. If the AS/VX pilots get a substantial raise, this only widens the gap with QX and makes it that much more undesirable to stay with QX for the long term. With full bonuses paid out in a year, the best case scenario is that people will take the training and the bonus and head to a better paying gig a year from now.
A major issue for the AS/VX negotiation is scope. AS pilots will be trying to limit the amount of E175 (76 seat jet) flying AS is allowed to have. I can see their point when you consider QX is now flying mid-cons in jets with $30,000 year co-pilots as opposed to an $80,000 a year AS co-pilot. Depending how this turns out we could see in infestation of E175's or see them sharply limited.
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 12:19 pm
  #488  
 
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Looks like PDX to MCI/STL are suspended over winter.
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 2:59 pm
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Ya, I'm really surprised AS hasn't set up a training program where they cover the cost of training if a pilot signs and flys with them for 5 years or something. I'm surprised they haven't partnered with some large school to provide the planes and help cut costs and overhead on that so the bills are already lower to start with. If you have a crushing debt training issue you step in there and fix the problem as much as regulations will allow AND you court your pilots from the get go.

You might still need some pay pay raises but probably much less then out right trying to hire them in droves away from other airlines.
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 3:29 pm
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Regarding the VX acquisition: I think if AS hadn't bought VX, there would've been a hostile takeover play from UA or AA by now, or if not yet, then within the next year. With VX, such a play is a lot less attractive because there would have to be divestment at SFO and LAX for anti-trust concerns.
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 3:47 pm
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Everybody seems so fixated on the pain this issue is causing them personally. This is a systemic problem with developing new ATPs and bringing them into the system. It’s affecting all the regionals, just some are doing better than others at minimizing the impact. Only until Congress addresses the issue that their law has created a bottleneck in the system will this isssue go away. Then and only then will the mitigations that the airlines need to implement will prove helpful. The airlines, especially the regionals, need to understand that they cannot create jobs that pay so little when the cost of attaining the qualification for those jobs is so high. I say it needs to be in that order because even if the airlines, like Horizon, were to increase pay enough to entice new students to enroll in flight training to become ATPs, they are easily 3-4 years away, minimum, before they reach the minimum qualifications. So complain all you want about whomever you want, but the underlying issue is not the airline or the FAA. It’s the law that requires 1,500 hours of flight time and the cost to getting those hours. I work in the industry. The common belief is that it’s costing new pilots $250K to get to ATP. Insufficient numbers are shelling out that kind of money for a job that pays $25K. I find it difficult to believe increasing starting salaries to $50K would offer sufficient relief. So it needs to be a bit on both sides, Congress and airlines, to meet in the middle. Offer a liveable wage and a qualification standard that’s based on capability, not time.
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 4:30 pm
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Originally Posted by acarney
Ya, I'm really surprised AS hasn't set up a training program where they cover the cost of training if a pilot signs and flys with them for 5 years or something. I'm surprised they haven't partnered with some large school to provide the planes and help cut costs and overhead on that so the bills are already lower to start with. If you have a crushing debt training issue you step in there and fix the problem as much as regulations will allow AND you court your pilots from the get go.

You might still need some pay pay raises but probably much less then out right trying to hire them in droves away from other airlines.
There's been some talk of that, but it's not practical. They'd be paying for their flight time, and most likely some sort of living allowance (can't have a job if you have to go flying around in a single engine piston plane in circles all day) over several years while they gain those worthless hours of flying. There is no industry on earth that operates like that. Most likely scenario is that potential pilots go overseas to fly for some company, at least then they'd be helping to generate income. That also has the benefit of having actual usable experience. You get about 200-400 hours of flight time in a small piston powered aircraft and no additional time is really going to benefit you in flying a turbine powered aircraft.

Other oversea airlines do have pilot training programs that get you from zero hours to the right seat. The contract required is generally over 10 years (I think something like 20 seems about right) and they don't have the pay increases like the US has/had (which will probably be going away with higher starting pay for the majors). So, overall it's less cost out of pocket for the employee, but over the course of their career they'd be making far less money than if they had been able to not be locked into a contract.

If you want to be mad or upset because your flight was cancelled. Be mad at congress. If you care about how much pilots make, consider that there have now been several years worth of college grads who lost their dream of becoming an airline pilot since it's not attainable anymore.
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 4:36 pm
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Originally Posted by WillTravel4Food
The common belief is that its costing new pilots $250K to get to ATP. Insufficient numbers are shelling out that kind of money for a job that pays $25K. I find it difficult to believe increasing starting salaries to $50K would offer sufficient relief. So it needs to be a bit on both sides, Congress and airlines, to meet in the middle. Offer a liveable wage and a qualification standard thats based on capability, not time.
$250K amount doesn't include lost wages either. Several years with an airline and you'd be making decent amount of money, more in line of what other similarly qualified and educated professionals are making. Now that time is (or would be since hardly anyone can do it) is spent losing money, rather than gaining useful experience and seniority at a company.

Also wanted to mention, there is a reason that many colleges dropped their professional piloting degrees as soon as Congress passed the new law. And it isn't because of some sort of sudden change in pay rate among the airlines.
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 4:40 pm
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Well I would be concerned if regs were opened up too much, piloting does strike me as one of those things that you really only learn through experience. I guess I kind of look at it like doctors, those guys are putting in massive amounts of training hours before being on their own. Now granted, I do think they participate in the treatment plan with oversight from Sr staff rather then being isolated away just "practicing".

So I guess you could argue then getting someone in the right hand seat faster with far less experience would be beneficial. But then I worry a little about having a single point of failure... if anything happens to that pilot your right seat guy is now really inexperienced.

Maybe more advanced flight systems has helped balance out that risk/reward zone though.

I certainly don't want airfare to get more expensive but I get the crushing level of debt and then bottom of the barrel pay when you enter in...
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Old Oct 8, 2017, 6:52 pm
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Originally Posted by acarney
Well I would be concerned if regs were opened up too much, piloting does strike me as one of those things that you really only learn through experience. I guess I kind of look at it like doctors, those guys are putting in massive amounts of training hours before being on their own. Now granted, I do think they participate in the treatment plan with oversight from Sr staff rather then being isolated away just "practicing".

So I guess you could argue then getting someone in the right hand seat faster with far less experience would be beneficial. But then I worry a little about having a single point of failure... if anything happens to that pilot your right seat guy is now really inexperienced.

Maybe more advanced flight systems has helped balance out that risk/reward zone though.

I certainly don't want airfare to get more expensive but I get the crushing level of debt and then bottom of the barrel pay when you enter in...
It shouldn't be about the quantity of experience, it should be about the quality. A single engine piston aircraft is very different than a modern airliner. If someone suggested doctors should spend 4 years on their own working on rodents to "gain experience" before they could could work with humans, people would think they were crazy. Sure there are similarities, and knowing the basics first is good, but otherwise there is not a ton of useful cross over experience that matters.

Bottom of the barrel pay is better than no pay while still spending a ton of money. I get that people are worried about pilots being paid too little, but forcing future pilots to go into a crazy amount of debt just to get a modest increase in starting pay is beyond ridiculous.
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