Orwaid

Hi -

I am also avoiding QX. That means no more second tier cities that only have mainline service out of SEA.

WebTraveler

Alaska/Horizon better turn this around. Talk in BR and on flights is going south on confidence in Alaska. This QX issue, combined with the changes in AA and DL are making folks run to other airlines. Some are pushing some late 2017 flights to other airlines to try to get some status for next year.

This whole Virgin America thing is just not good for the loyal Alaska flyer out of PDX, that's for sure. We're getting hosed.

ashill

Looks like the growth has stabilized though.

Domestic passengers: June 2017: 3.97M. June 2016: 3.95M.
Feb 2017: 2.67M. Feb 2016: 2.70M.

International passengers: June 2017: 451k. June 2016: 446k.
Feb 2017: 348k. Feb 2016: 330k.

And a 1.40% YOY decline in operations June-June, 2.54% YOY decline Feb-Feb. So the traffic volume at SEA doesn't seem to explain any difference between summer 2017 and summer 2016.

jsguyrus

Increasing volume did not cause the problem. The problem was QX had one of the lowest pays of any regional airline. They stopped getting sufficient number of pilots to replace those that left to fly for the majors, then ignored the problem.

They have since upped the pay and now pay hiring bonuses to make them competitive, but they are way behind the eight ball on this. On average it takes about three months to get pilots flying once they are hired so this is going to take 6-9 months to fix.

ashill

I concur. sltlyamusd said upthread that traffic volume at SEA is also a contributing factor in QX's problems this summer; I was arguing that traffic volume at SEA at the very least doesn't explain worsening issues from summer 2016 to summer 2017.

jsguyrus

Here in Yakima, we only have service by QX. They have been cancelling flights left and right and people are constantly being stranded. Many will make the 2 1/2 hour drive to SEA and probably never think about booking QX again. If DL came in to YKM they would probably clean up. As much as I hate to say it, even as an MVP Gold, I would probably consider DL as I can't tell you how many times in the last year I have been stranded overnight in Seattle.

Its a real shame, for the last several years QX has been doing a pretty effective job of adding customers and flights into here, now they will probably lose it all.

sltlyamusd

Traffic volume is not the most relevant consideration here. What matters more is the percentage of flights impacted by Air Traffic Control delays. Perhaps there were more days with low visibility or other bad weather year-over-year. In May 2017, 80.6% of arrivals into SEA were on-time, whereas in May 2016, 89.0% were on-time. This includes all airlines reporting to the DOT, but since Horizon doesn't report their on-time data to the DOT, any of their recent troubles won't be reflected in those data. Therefore, there was a 76% increase in delayed flights compared to the same month last year, and that has nothing to do with Horizon. To be fair, this could be indicative of issues at other airports as well, since flights arriving late into SEA may be delayed at the point of origin. Another potential contributing factor is increasing gate congestion at SEA due to the N Satellite construction.

Interestingly, if you look at mainline AS flights systemwide, there were twice as many delays due to air traffic control in May 2017 (most recent data available), compared to May 2016. (8.86% versus 4.4%). All of these data are from July 2017 and 2016 Air Travel Consumer Report from bts.gov.

I am not apologizing for QX here, just saying that the operational environment at SEA has definitely gotten more challenging and that isn't helping their OTP one bit.

sltlyamusd

Current QX pilot pay. http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/a...ghest-pay.html

3Cforme

What does the Virgin America acquisition have to do with lack of pilots to staff Horizon flights?

Orwaid

Hi -

3C, one could argue that AS management was spending a lot of time an energy first with the merger and then with the integration of VX into AS.

This at the expense of the day-to-day operations.

tusphotog

I think some of the AS on time issues have to do with runway construction in SFO and LA. Not sure when that wrapped up but that just killed on time performance. I know I had several WN trips delayed because of runway construction in LA and SFO.

That being said, this kinda feels like the start of the TANGO days back in 2004 when everything was late.

The Horizon pilot issue is a completely different issue from the VX merger. The Horizon pilot issue has been going on for at least two years or more. Probably since the CR7s were sent to Skywest, actually. It's just now starting to show up since they've started pulling pilots from the Q400s to the E75s. Since you have folks in training, they can't fly open Q400 trips and they just don't have the pilots on reserve to cover those open trips. It doesn't help that they haven't been competitive in salary for a while and haven't been able to retain pilots.

The new contract hasn't helped matters either since new hires are going to the Q400s and are seat locked to that plane for (I think) four years. If you're a 1,500 hour pilot looking to get to a major, do you fly for QX and bang out 8-10 legs flying the mail around Oregon and Washington or do you go to Compass or Skywest and go straight to a jet, more routes and 8-10 hour days flying less legs (on average)?

I just hope QX and AAG can get this Horizon ship righted. They're a great little carrier.

WebTraveler

Alaska took its eye off the ball.

Furthermore, adding an additional 30 markets by winter will stretch resources even thinner.

This is going to take more than 6-9 months to fix. If you have a qualified candidate today it will take 6-9 months. But then for every one coming in through the front door you still have to manage the losses through the back door.

WebTraveler

Alaska took its eyes off the ball and fumbled.

jsguyrus

That actually is not correct, it is showing the pay for Captains, not First Officers. The correct pay is shown here: http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/a...al/horizon_air

First year pilot pay is $40 PER FLIGHT HOUR. Their normal schedule is 75 hours a month therefore $36,000 per year, not including the first year hiring bonus. That is the new "competitive" pay!

ucdtim17

All the planes and crews dedicated to expansion could have been purposed to fly the existing schedule and a slower expansion. Long Q400 routes could have been switched to E175 or 737. They figured better to expand and just take the lumps from the QX cancellations. Sucks for everyone affected and I hope people are considering other options and letting Alaska know about it.