VegasGambler

Different type of arbitrage.

It doesn't surprise me that AS will let me buy a seat for miles for "cheaper" than I can buy it for cash. They are two different ways to buy a seat, they have different benefits (eqm earning etc) and there's no reason that they should cost the same amount.

That is VERY different than selling something to me below cost, which is what they are doing if they have to pay CX more than $1400 for that F seat.

eponymous_coward

If 84% or so of AS MP redemptions do not involve anything other than using AAG inventory to fulfill the redemption, I would argue they can indeed sell a small share of CX F redemptions below cost as long as the entire program is profitable, the same way casinos can have an occasional video poker machine that has positive return with perfect play/the right set of promotions, because a bunch of people are playing 90% return slot machines (or people THINK they can perform perfect play, but actually, they screw up). The rubes subsidize the advantage players. If someone wants to redeem their 5k AS miles for a $60 SEA-SJC trip, or maybe 160k to go SEA-HNL-SEA in AS F...

VegasGambler

But the real question is, why would they?

100%+ VP machines are VERY rare now. They exist in smaller casinos in tiny denominations where the machines run very slowly, and they put big flashing "100%+ returns" signs everywhere. They are advertising.

AS does not advertise that you can get CX or JL F seats for only 70k miles each way. Most people don't know. A loss leader is only effective if people know about it.

(100%+ returns including promotions is different. This is a deep subject that is way off topic here, but if you are too good they will just stop sending you the promotions, or ban you from them if they are not targeted. I know people who are free to play in certain large casino chains... they just can't earn comps or points. As far as I know, AS doesn't tell people that they are free to fly on their airline, but they can't buy, earn, or redeem miles.)

eponymous_coward

Partners regularly get mentioned in the magazine in your seat pocket (part of the advertorial travel pieces in there). The curse of "pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered" has happened to some AS redemptions (BA F to Australia, EK F where people figured out you could route USA-DXB-AKL-SYD-SIN-CMB, etc.). So far CX F has survived at 70k. Note that JL F isn't a lot different as an AA redemption USA->Asia 1 (80k), so an AS JL F redemption isn't an ZOMG AMAZEBALLS redemption compared to AA- AA actually has a significant advantage (you can change dates no fee as long as O/D stay the same, try that with no status on AS) to counter AS being able to take a stopover.

There are FT people who've been banned from MP (as well as FTers who've been ejected from loyalty schemes the same way folks have been told they can't play at the casino). AS has had problems with mileage sellers as well... yet the CX F redemption persists at 70k.

VegasGambler

The value is in the stopover -- AA doesn't let you do that. SFO-HND for 70k miles is not amazing, but SFO-HND (stop) NRT - BKK for 75k miles IS amazing. That would cost you 110k miles with AA

If I was just going to go to Japan and nowhere else on a trip, I'd probably transfer MR pts to VS and do the round trip on ANA for 110k. Without the stopover, the AS charts are good but not the best deals out there.


Sure, if you break the rules you are going to get banned. They are not going to ban you for buying miles and redeeming CX F awards for yourself, even if you do it every month (are you?)

eponymous_coward

Being able to change dates for free without status is pretty good value if you ask me (plus guess what, on an AA award you can use CX AND JL, or AA, AS AND JL). Milking travel for stopovers is valuable but I would argue AA's wider range of partners + different rules (some better, some worse) isn't putting AS in some other universe of value. (Probably the CX awards to Africa with HKG stopover are about as much premium class flying as you'd get out of 70k miles.)

jinglish

Yeah, this is a big deal as someone whose redempetions so far have almost entirely been using AS miles. I had to book a separate DL coach ticket LAX-SEA for New Year's because AS was showing saver availability on AA, but not on AS so I could add it to my CX award. I'm planning on booking AY J LAX-HEL soon with some AA miles and I'm already feeling pretty relaxed that I'll have two carriers to choose saver space from to get there.

SanDiego1K

5 days before flight time, I succeeded in getting an F seat on the HKG-LAX flight of interest to me. I had been checking using award nexus and calling AS daily. 8 hours after my prior call to AS, I checked Expert Flyer and found F4 on the flight of interest. I used AwardNexus again but added a check of the QF site as well as JL. QF found one F award seat. JL did not. (AwardNexus had a caution up about challenges with JL so it might have been a short term issue.) AS was able to see that F seat and made the change. Expert Flyer now shows F3 for the flight, yet only one seat shows as unassigned.

There are 3 flights from HKG-LAX on the day that I was searching. I just looked again. Availability is F3, F3, F2. I used awardnexus to check QF. There is not a single F award seat available. I got mine yesterday when it was F4, but I thought that conventional wisdom was that an award would be released when there was F2 or more and we were within 7 days of travel. Today's numbers say that's not so. Thoughts?

Flying for Fun

I follow what you are saying. I don't have inside knowledge but I would anticipate AS pays CX something south of a penny per mile redeemed. In my case the upgrade was a mere 7,500 miles for the TPAC and $3.85 cents in additional fees over the 62.5K I had already redeemed for Africa to North America in J. I flew JNB-HKG//HKG-BOS. I anticipate AS paid CX somewhere between $50 & $75 for the upgrade.

Opening up F award space would probably result in AS paying something in the $469 to $700 range for the 70K redemption. I only illustrated the direct costs that the Member enjoys during the flight (easily $200-$300) but a lot more comes into play. For instance, staffing and additional fuel costs for the added weight of the passenger and his/her luggage and the additional provisions the passenger will consume plus the additional fuel to burn to carry the additional fuel.

Optimizing all those variables may determine it to be more cost effective just to leave the F seats empty. On my last CX F TPAC last month there was also one seat vacant at takeoff.

James

Mauibaby2008

plzkthx

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Did you originally have an award seat on that flight, then upgraded to F seat? Just curious on the process, trying to upgrade my wife from J to F class if availability opens up.

cycyc

Turns out I wasn't SOL. Somehow F3 turned into F4 magically this evening for the exact date and flight I was looking at, and I jumped on it immediately.

I'll have to say that CX does not make it easy to use their awards to book a honeymoon trip. First F ticket was booked on Feb 12. Many many months later, the second F ticket was booked on Dec 6, 9 days out. Lots of nervous anticipation in between, but I'm glad it's settled finally.

jamienbaker

jphripjah

That's good news. In my non-expert observation, in past years, CX usually releases premium award seats on LAX-HKG about 8-10 days out, including in December. But I checked yesterday (on BA.com) and saw no CX premium award seats at at all from LAX-HKG in the range of December 10-17. I'll keep looking. I actually want to fly around the 30th/31st I was just checking for patterns for release of the seats.

kapooncha

I've only flown CX F once. When I did, I had 2A and there was only one other passenger in the F cabin, and he was on the other side of the barrier. So yes, it was an amazingly quiet and comfortable experience. It was one of the best F experiences for me ever.