bkojote

There's a shortage of A380 gates at JFK as it currently stands, which is why new ones are being added amongst the 23 new gates on the south terminals.

I don't know if BA will ever fly one of their A380's to JFK given their strength is frequency over capacity and it's a fairly short flight, but I'd wager with any new gates they build (cough T8) would likely include one as they retire their 747s.

tphuang

I have no idea how this relates to anything. LGA terminals are expanded and there is no possibility of more slots. What makes you think JFK terminals will not get expanded with more concessions and lounge space considering that there will be a lot of up gauging going forward. That's even if the slots stay the way they are. But since you probably don't live in New York, you don't care about the improvements we make here to our airports. I do.

I mean even if BA don't fly their A380s to JFK, we will still see a lot more up gauging going forward. Everyone is expecting that for JFK will continue to grow in number of passengers.

eponymous_coward

wolfpacktrojan

I'm surprised BA hasn't ordered more A380s, considering the slot constraints at LHR. I'm sure they would have no problem throwing the A380 on a few more routes.

eponymous_coward

fly18725

Nice attempt at pivoting. You've been arguing that as the potential developer of the T7 replacement, JetBlue will kick out AS and BA. There are a number of people who have been nearly hysterical about the the opportunity for JetBlue to expand and take over the world. This is unrealistic and I pointed out that the terminal developers will simply be landlords and the airport will operate status quo, albeit with a significantly improved passenger experience.

beckoa

So by the time of the potential terminal development AS could be the new landlord?

tphuang

AS and BA will have to find a new place. What do you think is going to happen when T7 comes down? Even if they decide to stay in the north terminal after it's finished, they will still need to find an interim place during the construction. Frankly, it's been talked about for a while now BA will move in with AA. That's why they put in a joint proposal for T7/8. B6 would be happy if BA moves back in to north terminal afterwards, because they need other airlines to pay for this thing. And AS would have a choice of where it wants to move to.

I'm not sure why you are not happy AS will get a chance of deciding which terminal it ends up in the future. Unless you think T7 is some kind of special place where everyone is clamoring for.

So tell me, what do you think is going to happen in 2022 when the lease is up?

fly18725

I don’t think AS and BA will have to find a new, permanent home. I expect the Port Auhority will require developers to accommodate existing lease holders.

bkojote

Not sure I agree with you there. JFK operates a bit differently with the terminal operators handling the leasing and being fairly territorial.

Literally a year ago Alaska got evicted (Alaska's own words) from T8 and T4 and was stuck scrambling to find anyone to take them in, which is how they got stuck at sad-sack T7 in the first place. The Port Authority has final say but leaves much of it up to the terminal operators, up to the point where it's paralyzed the airport (Bomb cyclone) or led to weird split terminal operations like Qatar.

BA is likely going to T8, Robert Isom at AA has already said getting their NYLON JV with BA under a single terminal, and operationally it makes a lot of sense. Alaska may end up with JetBlue at the new T6/7 (they cohabited at LGA until Alaska ragequit and left) or get shuffled around to T4 or back to T8 depending on who moves where in what I'm sure is going to be musical chairs.

The good news is that nothing is worse than the current T7.

eponymous_coward

That sounds about right. AS's operations at JFK will probably be big enough to warrant some consideration- it's not like they just fly 1 or 2 random one offs, and I don't think they'll withdraw from the NYC market, the Rumors of Alaska's Demise from the Usual Suspects are a bit overwrought, I think, even B6 cuts stations these days. That being said, AS is not big enough at JFK that they can really throw their weight around, and they're unlikely to get bigger. BA probably IS big enough at JFK to get some love though. A T8 colocation could make sense... the problem being that BA probably wants to do their own lounge branding and premium checkin experience since NYLON is their crown jewel route, and would T8 have space for BA lounges and BA checkins separate from AA? Or does BA have to sink a bunch of cash in after having their millions tossed in the garbage for a T7 overhaul after 4 years?

Yes, I know, AA partnership and JV, Flagship Lounge blah blah blah, but they probably want their Golds to be treated like BA Golds not OW Emeralds, if you get my drift, and want their own service levels (sleeper service, Concorde Lounge, etc.).

bkojote

T8 is only half built as it currently stands, with a never-built "phase 2" to double the size of the check-in area as well as add 14 gates to the main concourse. I'd wager they'll slot in there, which would give them more than enough space for their own check/in and lounges.

During the initial RFP, the Port Authority renders cheekily suggested finishing it as part of the unified terminal vision, though it's conspicuously absent from the two terminal announcements. My guess would be AA/BA are hashing it out now and will announce a follow up.



The original T8 plan

tphuang

IMO, it's one of the biggest questions of what will happen to AS. AS won't be without a home. If anything, North and South terminal operators just sunk a bunch of money in, they'd want to get tenants in that will pay a lot of money. Or else it will look bad on their balance sheet very quickly. I'm completely baffled why people think that's a worse outcome than staying at the present day T7. AS can choose what's likely the nicer south terminal, which is most likely going to more expensive (due to all wide body gates and $7 billion sunk cost) or to the nice, but probably not as posh north terminal.

And yes, BA got the biggest kick out of this. They are getting forcefully kicked from their current spot after sinking a lot of money in there and need to find either a temporary location for 3 years until they can move into the new North Terminal or move in with AA at T8, who doesn't look like they want to spend any money in NYC.

Does anyone not think B6 would want IAG to move in there and rent a huge space out for their 3 lounges, dedicated check-in spaces and probably 4 wide body gates?

LIH Prem

Nobody really knows what's going to happen, but it's interesting to speculate, as long as you don't insist that your view is the only correct one.

-David

bkojote

I don't really see it myself. They're much tighter with OneWorld, as it's been publicly announced they want to tighten up their joint venture with AA, especially with Delta + Virgin Atlantic partnership posing credible competition to their NYLON route and operating from integrated terminals on both ends.

I'd say the candidates for moving over to the new T5/6/7 are Icelandair (this has to be the most likely), Qatar, ANA, El Al, SAA, and long-shot Emirates/Etihad. I think TAP and Hawaiian are going to stay, with Aer Lingus going either way.

From a pure logistics standpoint, it makes the most sense for them to be in T5/6/7, but B6 tends to use their terminal experience at JFK/LGA/BOS as a competitive advantage and likely doesn't want their most direct competitor benefitting, so would likely try to jockey for partners/codeshares in their new terminal.