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Odds of fares dropping for Thanksgiving week?

Odds of fares dropping for Thanksgiving week?

Old Jan 2, 2017, 2:33 pm
  #1  
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Odds of fares dropping for Thanksgiving week?

We were thinking of taking our g-daughter, age 13, to Hawaii during Thanksgiving week this yr. but airfare is extremely high. I've never flown around T-giving so didn't know what to expect (but knew they would be somewhat higher). One way fares the weekend before are ~$800!! The weekend after are better, ~$500. That's over $1300 each r/t. [Less using Comp. Fare of course]. The fares are similar with all airlines. I prefer AS because of the Comp. Fare discounts.

So my question is this: historically, can I expect fares to drop over the next 3 to 8 months?

Last edited by philemer; Jan 2, 2017 at 9:46 pm
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 3:04 pm
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Unlikely to drop. More likely to go up as the seats are taken.
Fall is a great time for Hawaii, as with the exception of Thanksgiving,
you will have the place to yourselves. Perhaps you can generate
a Hawaiian learning experience for her that would be strong enough
to justify her taking some time off from school another, less expensive week?

T.S Elliot would approve!
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 3:33 pm
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Are those fares miles & money eligible? If you have the miles it might be worth it and would cut the prices in half.
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 3:42 pm
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Originally Posted by acarney
Are those fares miles & money eligible? If you have the miles it might be worth it and would cut the prices in half.
Not sure but I value my miles at 1.5 cents each so total "cost" would be similar.

I'm also investigating mid-August, just before school starts. Cash fares are more reasonable & less miles required (35K>40K r/t). It's a pretty hot & humid at that time of year but I'm sure the g-daughter won't mind.
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 6:01 pm
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I did a SEA-HNL fare search approximating Thanksgiving week travel and found sub-$800 RT fares (non-AS).
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 8:21 pm
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Originally Posted by dayone
I did a SEA-HNL fare search approximating Thanksgiving week travel and found sub-$800 RT fares (non-AS).
well, we're in the AS FT forum so OP presumably wants to fly AS ...
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 9:05 pm
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Better odds in Vegas
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 9:07 pm
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I tracked AS SEA-HNL,KOA for school break/holiday weeks. No, they unlikely will go down dramatically. Maybe there will be a small change but nothing significant. And most likely they will go up to almost 800 one way. It's robbing but we need to live with that...

Other companies are cheaper but not significantly either. I often find Hawaiian airlines has the cheapest prices with connections. Also, it is still more expensive than or exactly at the half amount of 1 AS + 1 companion fare. Their algorithms must have considered the companion fare I swear.
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 9:44 pm
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Originally Posted by John Wang
I tracked AS SEA-HNL,KOA for school break/holiday weeks. No, they unlikely will go down dramatically. Maybe there will be a small change but nothing significant. And most likely they will go up to almost 800 one way. It's robbing but we need to live with that...

Other companies are cheaper but not significantly either. I often find Hawaiian airlines has the cheapest prices with connections. Also, it is still more expensive than or exactly at the half amount of 1 AS + 1 companion fare. Their algorithms must have considered the companion fare I swear.
Thanks for the data point. Kind of what I guessed. As mentioned by a poster above you can find sub-$800 fares but most of them are < ideal. Usually they have issues like:
-multi-stop routes
-multiple airlines (no protection)
-long connect times

DL has the lowest rates now for "reasonable" flts, but still too high for me. Looking seriously at going in August now. And I will look at all airlines since I have miles in all three alliances. ^ HA is out since they don't fly ex-BOI.
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 9:45 pm
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Originally Posted by jrl767
well, we're in the AS FT forum so OP presumably wants to fly AS ...
That may well be true, but perhaps s/he and others find value in comparisons.

I can find F for less than the fares posted. I "want" to fly AS too, but I'll fly F on a competitor if the fare is the same or less.
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Old Jan 2, 2017, 9:48 pm
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Originally Posted by dayone
That may well be true, but perhaps s/he and others find value in comparisons.

I can find F for less than the fares posted. I "want" to fly AS too, but I'll fly F on a competitor if the fare is the same or less.
^
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