AS Merger Impact on VX Routes [Consolidated]
Apr 20, 2016, 9:19 pm
#106
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: SEA, but up and down the coast a lot
Programs: Oceanic Airlines Gold Elite
Posts: 20,386
There really isn't a reason to prefer STL to DAL for a "minihub". Both markets have lots of WN presence. The VX/AS presence at DAL is gate capped, but oh well. And a "minihub" of LGA, DCA, LAX, SFO, SEA, PDX and (maybe) LAS isn't the worst set of destinations for a minihub. Ideally you'd want a Texas destination or two out of DAL, but VX got buried trying to run AUS-DAL.
Apr 20, 2016, 9:51 pm
#107
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: SEA
Programs: Hilton/Marriott Gold, Accor Silver
Posts: 2,036
Why does this matter to me at all? Because JL has 2-4-2 787s.
Apr 22, 2016, 11:08 am
#108
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 1,309
no huge AS FF base in the NYC area
there's probably no huge AS FF base in the New York area just clamoring for MCO flights. Those will NEVER happen.
The VAST majority of the people on the SEA/PDX-NYC area flights are most likely people from SEA/ PDX / area/ Pacific Northwest area who are flying to/ from NYC. Any NYC area residents probably take AS just because it's cheap or the times work out. Or perhaps they are DL/AA flyers for whom the times work better than AA/DL nonstop. I can assure you that AS has no large FF base in the NYC area just dying for an MCO flight.
There's ZERO way that there's a large enough AS FF community in the NYC area to support any non-hub AS flying into/ out of the NYC area.
The VAST majority of the people on the SEA/PDX-NYC area flights are most likely people from SEA/ PDX / area/ Pacific Northwest area who are flying to/ from NYC. Any NYC area residents probably take AS just because it's cheap or the times work out. Or perhaps they are DL/AA flyers for whom the times work better than AA/DL nonstop. I can assure you that AS has no large FF base in the NYC area just dying for an MCO flight.
There's ZERO way that there's a large enough AS FF community in the NYC area to support any non-hub AS flying into/ out of the NYC area.
It could probably sell the DCA slots to either NK, F9 or B6, and could sell the LGA slots to one of those carriers or WN*. This assumes any of those carriers would make a decent offer.
*I think it'd be dicey if AS sold the DCA slots to WN, as the DOT might not want WN buying up essentially the great majority of AA's divested slots at DCA. It's unclear to me if UA could expand at DCA or LGA or if it would have any interest.
But all of those LCC carriers would just use those slots on DCA-Florida or LGA-Florida, so the question is what's to stop AS from just running some Florida service from LGA and DCA?
From 2015 Q3 fares, DCA-DAL stands out to me as weak with an average fare of $140. Q1 was $130. Granted this is an average between WN and VX, and VX specific data isn't listed.
However, 2015 Load factors show VX on DCA-DAL settling in the low 70s by the second half of the year, which likely isn't great. The first half seemed a struggle, but it's peak was surprisingly in May, at about 80%. In the same Q3 period, DCA-FLL had an average fare of $146, led by B6, and Q1 avg. fare was higher at $188. No doubt that FLL season is in Q1. Maybe it'd be an option for AS to switch from DCA-DAL to DCA-FLL. It could then hope that AA bows out, as AA already covers DCA-MIA. AA might anyways be ready to cover a route like DCA-IAH and will need some slots for it.
As for DAL-LGA, LFs were better for VX with it in the high 80s even by October of last year. The New York-Dallas market is large, undoubtedly.
However, fares aren't so hot, likely because of the competition. For 2015 Q3 fares, the NYC-Dallas average fare was $206, with AA being the largest carrier and it's average fare at $216. In contrast, LGA-MCO average fare was $182. Thus the average fare of NYC-Dallas was only about 19% greater than LGA-MCO, but the route was 45% longer. Granted, if AS were to switch to LGA-MCO, the average fare of LGA-MCO would likely drop with more competition (itself added on the route), but I believe it's a route that would perform well all year round, and be a popular market destination for AS FF that are in NY, that are supporting AS on the transcons.
*I think it'd be dicey if AS sold the DCA slots to WN, as the DOT might not want WN buying up essentially the great majority of AA's divested slots at DCA. It's unclear to me if UA could expand at DCA or LGA or if it would have any interest.
But all of those LCC carriers would just use those slots on DCA-Florida or LGA-Florida, so the question is what's to stop AS from just running some Florida service from LGA and DCA?
From 2015 Q3 fares, DCA-DAL stands out to me as weak with an average fare of $140. Q1 was $130. Granted this is an average between WN and VX, and VX specific data isn't listed.
However, 2015 Load factors show VX on DCA-DAL settling in the low 70s by the second half of the year, which likely isn't great. The first half seemed a struggle, but it's peak was surprisingly in May, at about 80%. In the same Q3 period, DCA-FLL had an average fare of $146, led by B6, and Q1 avg. fare was higher at $188. No doubt that FLL season is in Q1. Maybe it'd be an option for AS to switch from DCA-DAL to DCA-FLL. It could then hope that AA bows out, as AA already covers DCA-MIA. AA might anyways be ready to cover a route like DCA-IAH and will need some slots for it.
As for DAL-LGA, LFs were better for VX with it in the high 80s even by October of last year. The New York-Dallas market is large, undoubtedly.
However, fares aren't so hot, likely because of the competition. For 2015 Q3 fares, the NYC-Dallas average fare was $206, with AA being the largest carrier and it's average fare at $216. In contrast, LGA-MCO average fare was $182. Thus the average fare of NYC-Dallas was only about 19% greater than LGA-MCO, but the route was 45% longer. Granted, if AS were to switch to LGA-MCO, the average fare of LGA-MCO would likely drop with more competition (itself added on the route), but I believe it's a route that would perform well all year round, and be a popular market destination for AS FF that are in NY, that are supporting AS on the transcons.