notquiteaff

"Proudly all Boeing" until it's convenient or beneficial for them to not be all Boeing anymore.

I have flown VX a few times from SFO to LAS. Frankly, the experience on a short hop isn't really noticeable different than on any legacy carrier I have taken. It's not like they have free snacks or more leg room like B6. And I always bring my own IFE, so having the screen in the seat isn't a feature I care about.

dayone

DAL gates are currently the subject of litigation in at least two courts. The government would have something to say about any sale. And a sale to WN would create a monopoly, and we all know how the DOJ feels about monopolies.

DAL or DFW? VX's loads increased after moving from DFW to DAL, but AS's relationship with AA will be a factor. Also, VX's DAL gates are being operated at capacity. They cannot be "more utilized."

Slots at restricted airports and government-granted routes will be scrutinized.

SJC ORD LDR

I think VX has lost a ton of money on DAL and really haven't figured out what to do with them. I would think AS would prefer DFW because of the AA partnership. I could see AS selling the DAL gates to DL or an ULCC that might have interest.

I see no reason for NYC or DCA slots to be an issue. DL was able to buy UA's JFK slots and get that by the DOJ. VX+AS is a lot less than DL. The only thing I could possibly see is that they give up one of their long haul flights out of DCA, but to me that is very unlikely.

dayone

If the DAL gates are sold, B6 would seem a very logical buyer.

Slots are always an issue.

eponymous_coward

Maybe not. There's no reason you can't flow traffic to ex-DFW destinations between the AA/AS networks through SEA/PDX/LAX/PHX/ORD instead of DFW.

I would bet that a LOT of AS traffic to DFW is point to point, in which case, DAL works just fine for that. The combined airline would have a decent portfolio of destinations at DAL: LGA/DCA/SEA/PDX/LAX/SFO/LAS. It's not ideal if they want to expand much, but it's not like they really would want to expand much in Dallas and anger AA anyways. I could see DAL working as a focus city much like SAN/SJC do. (Wonder if they would try some Mexico leisure destinations like CUN/SJD too.)

Edgerfly

I was positive this sale was gonna go to JetBlue since it makes perfect sense for them.

I'm still left shaking my head as to what Alaska's plan is with this airline once they merge. Are they gonna keep the Alaska brand name? (I hope so). What do they need this airline with AS's heavy presence in the west coast already? What are they gonna do with all the A320's? What are they gonna do with VX's highly different mileage program? What are they gonna do with VX's highly different first class?

The whole ordeal just has me shaking my head, wondering what AS's plan is exactly with this deal. I am also hoping this doesn't turn AS into one of the evil US3 now that they'll be in a bigger league now.

Does anyone know what Alaska's plan is?

eponymous_coward

I guess the executives would, but I share the concern. It gives them a LOT of options in California, and given that DL is bearing down very hard on SEA, that has to be part of their consideration; sucking wind behind a combined VX+B6 entity with DL trying to crush you in your primary hub probably didn't sound like a great option.

They'll have a strong market position in SEA/PDX/SFO/SJC/LAX/SAN. That's nothing to sneeze at. But yeah, the offerings of VX and AS are very, very different, and I could easily see them bobble the ball on the merger like UA did if they make the wrong move.

It does also put them in an awkward position with AA in that AS will not only be involved in the DAL/DFW market, they'll also be involved in the California-JFK market and pretty deeply invested in competing routes in the LAX market, three of AA's crown jewels. That's probably more competition than you'd like with a partner.

Calculon

Bolding mine. Seems like normal business decision-making, if this ends up happening.

Then again, if they maintain Virgin America as a separate operation, they can go right on saying that Alaska is all-Boeing.

Edgerfly

Yeah I guess you're right, it essentially gives them a monopoly on the west coast and it will crush deltas attempt to undermine them out of Seattle. That does make sense now that I look at it that way.

As far as AA's Crown Jewel routes, they could always just cancel those routes or feed into DFW to help connect to a wider network with AA.

Very interested to see what happens, and if anything changes in regard to the in flight services, both hard and soft products and the mileage programs. Obviously if nothing changes, I'm gonna be wanting that 55" pitch and fly and get upgraded on the VX A320's.

ty97

While I think the regulators would need few if any concessions (probably none) to allow an AS/VX merger (and any concessions they might call for would presumably be on the west coast), I do believe the regulators would block a DAL gate sale to WN.

eponymous_coward

Hardly. They'll have significant market share in all of them, but dominate none. SEA has DL (and AS was never really much over 50%), SFO has UA, LAX has everyone and their cousin, PDX is smallish and AS has something like 50% (so not a fortress), SJC and SAN have WN.

The advantage will be that they will have lots of options to expand on the West Coast. Think of it as sort of like how WN went from a handful of cities in Texas to all over the USA.

That would be crazy. NYC-California is probably one of the few markets where running transcon premium services is highly profitable (note that all of the Big Three run lie-flats NYC-SFO/LAX). Tossing those routes would be like buying a car and throwing everything away but the hubcaps and sparkplugs. A lot of VX's network is very "meh"- AS could have started flying it years ago if they wanted (and in some cases actually did, like LAX-YYZ, which failed for both airlines). But NYC-California is a crown jewel for VX revenue.

And I think the moral of the AS-DL relationship is probably "don't trust your partners too much". I don't see AS as wanting to be too dependent on a partner's good will any longer. This may be part of their calculus; they're willing to see if AA is going to freak out about AS being a competitor in a number of markets. The thing is that DAL is hard capped by a gate limit (which is probably fine with AS, they could probably move the AS operation over there and be in good shape), and any additional SFO expansion hurts UA a lot more than AA. LAX and premium transcon are tricky though.

SJC ORD LDR

There is no way regulators wold allow WN to control all 20 gates at DAL. I think they could be sold to anyone other than WN or AA since they had to divest them in the AA/US merger. We know that DL has strong interest since they are in court trying to keep their access to DAL. But, we also know that DL and AS aren't exactly on friendly terms. It'll be interesting.

Edgerfly

No I didn't mean throw away the transcon routes, of course not. They'll just compete with AA on those and that's fine. My point was their flights that go into DFW.

SJC ORD LDR

B6 only flies DFW - BOS from the Metroplex. Seeing that DAL has been a money sink for VX, I don't think they would be interested in going up against WN on DAL - NYC or DAL - FLL.

WrightHI

I wonder if AS is quietly talking with HA too. AS + VX makes them a bigger version of what they are now with two fleets and two cultures to manage through. If they're going to go that far, would adding HA to the mix be a bridge too far, or would it put them in a position to really take a bite out of UA?