lg20

I agree here. I don't think AS would have sought out a merger if everything stayed the same, but with VX up for sale, their hand was probably forced. They would much rather grow this way that let B6 jump in size.

ashill

Well, AS grew the Hawaii service organically, largely using (at least at first) 737s that were freed up when Mexican tourism took a dive due to swine flu just after Aloha went under, leaving a market opportunity. They could have chosen to use those planes for organic growth in the lower 48, but didn't. And they have lots of new deliveries coming on; they could keep the old planes and use the new ones for faster growth. But they aren't. So I don't think a lack of available aircraft is what's limiting AS's growth.

channa

What saved AA/US is that interface-wise, the AA airport staff had no front end, and the US staff did. AA was able to adapt the US interface to work on Sabre, so nobody had a transition in terms of interface at the airport. If you used to use AA commandline, you can keep using it. If you used to use US Qik, you can keep using that. You just have another option available to you now.

DL/NW did have an interface transition, but the DL platform was robust enough and intuitive enough, that with some training the learning curve was reasonable.

UA/CO had problems because they downgraded to a more difficult to use interface (CO) from a more advanced one (UA) while also trying to make it work for a more complex airline (UA). Anyone with an IT background could see this was a mistake, including the former UA CEO who lost his job by protesting this move.

Regardless, systems is not a critical item in these sorts of deals. There are ways to integrate systems and make them (relatively) painless for staff and customers. With the exception of UA/CO, the previous major mergers did this satisfactorily.

eponymous_coward

They have 1.5 billion in cash, if they wanted to write Boeing a big check I'm sure they could have all the 737NGs they want (especially considering the 7373Max is on the way).

PWMTrav

Really interesting for AS - I wonder if they'd keep the VX routes out of SFO and LAX or not and build/grow focus at those cities. I won't lie, the prospect of being able to fly to SFO, SAN, PDX, SEA and LAX from BOS on AS would be very appealing. That would cover almost all of my annual paid mileage (I also regularly go to PHX and CHA - at least for PHX I'd totally connect on AS through SFO or LAX).

BearX220

Total speculation, but I think AS would value the class-leading VX F product and put a so-equipped subfleet on cherry transcon routes like SFO/LAX/SAN/SEA-BOS/EWR/JFK/DCA to compete with Mint, p.s., and whatever DL calls theirs this week. The AS home-grown F product is pretty workmanlike.

Major G

They would likely need to keep SFO as a maintenance base for their Airbus fleet. They could phase that out as the Airbus leases expire, but why let a certified maintenance crew go to waste?

WrightHI

HA is not universally loved locally, and AS culture also fits pretty well here (although I wish they'd remind FAs not to assume that everyone on a plane to Hawaii is going on vacation and everyone on a plane leaving Hawaii is going back to work). Also worth noting that a lot of Hawaii people -- particularly more frequent fliers -- use HA interisland and one of the majors for longhaul. Depending on what they did with the route network, a merged AS-HA could pick up more of that business. Main thing would be not to screw up the interisland network. That is very much not broke, and it would be a mistake to do anything dramatic anytime soon.

VibeGuy

I'm struggling to figure out what VX brings to the party here. 5 owned aircraft, a bunch of leases and some neo delivery positions, and a maintenance capability for a type that AS doesn't operate.

With the exception of DAL, where slots are an issue, I don't see what they've got that adds much to the relationship that an organization with a solid balance sheet can't just go out and buy or lease without paying a goodwill premium.

WebTraveler

Slots are also an issue at the NY airports.

It eliminates a direct competitor on at least three direct routes (SEA-SFO, SEA-LAX, PDX-SEA) as well as various connecting flights.

Direct flight SFO-DCA. Coveted National Airport non-stop

Direct flights SFO-HNL, SFO-OGG if you consider other Bay Area non-stops as direct competitors.

LAX-Dulles is somewhat a competitor to LAX-DCA and LAX-Baltimore.

Pilot shortage. This may firm up the ranks. For the first time in decades there is a significant pilot shortage.

May be able to phase out dependence on LAX where there is so much competition from AA, Delta, United, Jet Blue hubs. SFO has United Hub. So competition is less.

Quick access to aircraft. Even though they are not owned in most cases they are active leases.

Alaska has its reasons. Maybe being independent and keeping up is good too.

eponymous_coward

No guarantee they'd retain that in a merger. When TW merged with AA, AS got their LAX-DCA slot when it was rebid.

It would be kind of weird to phase out LAX when AS is actually still considering it a focus city and still has some transcon service out of it (LAX-DCA/BWI), plus their Mexico/LIR/SJO service. They've started three routes out of LAX in the past year. Funny way to be "phasing it out".

AS would also get Hawaii service from almost every major West Coast airport in the US out of this deal: SAN, LAX, SJC, SFO, OAK, SMF, PDX, SEA.

VibeGuy

VX is really new in that route, and I think this actually buttresses my point that AS is already reasonably suited to compete in that market if they desire. VX can offer a better paid F product, and some minor feed to HNL or OGG frequencies, but taken as an O/D market, it's not like the barriers to entry are particularly lofty and VX has the market somehow locked up.

While SFO has decent o/d opportunity, it's a crap airport to operate as a hub because of weather, which I think has hurt VX's operational execution.

beckoa

Crazy to see what happens when I'm out of the country for a couple days

Not shocked by this- have been questioning VX's financial performance for a while.

But AS flights are noisy enough at takeoff due to dogs barking

And this wouldn't be the first acquisition for AS. They could pull a QX and keep a sub brand (doubtful) or SI merging of fleets.

Who else recalls the lawsuit(s)? AS filed against VX?

Stay tuned for sure!

Fanjet

I really don't see what VX brings to AS. A merger with B6 would bring more benefit for AS (a sizeable presence in the section of the country where AS has a very small presence). In fact, a merger with B6 would bring more benefit to VX as well.

VibeGuy

Odd, I was thinking about the SI merger the other day. I think that entire deal was valued at less than $15mm