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Hawaii flights--why do lower fare buckets always seem to open closer to flight date??

Hawaii flights--why do lower fare buckets always seem to open closer to flight date??

Old Nov 16, 14, 10:48 pm
  #1  
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Hawaii flights--why do lower fare buckets always seem to open closer to flight date??

I'm always amazed when I see fares from PDX-Hawaii for around $200 that are for flights departing the next day or the day after that....for all other AS destinations like LAX or SEA, the last minute fares seem to be at their highest, but the Hawaii flights seem to consistently go back to the lowest fare bucket a day or two before departure....to a lesser extent, I've also seen this with some of the Mexico flights. I'm assuming this is intentional on the part of AS and has something to do with trying to fill-up flights to primarily leisure destinations (although you don't see this with Florida cities like MCO).

Have any of you ever decided to take advantage of the low price and buy a ticket to Hawaii for the next day??? I feel like I've missed the boat on getting a good airfare for the holidays, but maybe not
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Old Nov 16, 14, 10:57 pm
  #2  
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because ma and pa kettle think that the earlier they buy the cheaper it is going to be.
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Old Nov 16, 14, 11:23 pm
  #3  
 
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Aye, Thanksgiving flights to Hawaii are now $200 per person cheaper than when ! bought them in April. I feel had.
As an AS newbie, can I ask if I can take advantage of the fare decrease, or do change fees make that a non-starter?
Thanks
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Old Nov 16, 14, 11:30 pm
  #4  
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Originally Posted by Wexflyer View Post
Aye, Thanksgiving flights to Hawaii are now $200 per person cheaper than when ! bought them in April. I feel had.
As an AS newbie, can I ask if I can take advantage of the fare decrease, or do change fees make that a non-starter?
Thanks
any one can get a best fare guarantee credit. Not sure about the change fee deduction but in any case you say them so Im assuming theres at least 2 seats bought so your are still looking at saving 150 even if theres 2 change fees for 2 people
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Old Nov 16, 14, 11:50 pm
  #5  
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Originally Posted by Wexflyer View Post
Aye, Thanksgiving flights to Hawaii are now $200 per person cheaper than when ! bought them in April. I feel had.
As an AS newbie, can I ask if I can take advantage of the fare decrease, or do change fees make that a non-starter?
Thanks
Yikes....I just checked the two days before Thanksgiving and the one-way fare from PDX-HNL is $199...that's amazing, you know that had to be $400 or $500 just a few months ago....makes me wonder if the same thing will happen around Christmas/New Years.
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Old Nov 17, 14, 12:36 am
  #6  
 
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Originally Posted by Wexflyer View Post
Aye, Thanksgiving flights to Hawaii are now $200 per person cheaper than when ! bought them in April. I feel had.
As an AS newbie, can I ask if I can take advantage of the fare decrease, or do change fees make that a non-starter?
Thanks
False alarm! Did not realize/had forgotten that AS quotes one-way fares, not return… so price is now substantially higher than when I bought.
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Old Nov 17, 14, 8:41 am
  #7  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
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On both my recent hawaii trips I've gotten a small guarantee credit for monitoring my flights and claiming it when fares dropped close to departure. I monitor the OGG routes pretty closely as I have family in Hawaii, and this is something I've wondered about too. Sometimes you can find the lowest fare literally the day before a flight. I figure it might have something to be with it being a leisure destination but if that is the case, why doesn't a place such as LAS work that way too?
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Old Nov 17, 14, 9:13 am
  #8  
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
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Originally Posted by PDXPremier View Post
I'm always amazed when I see fares from PDX-Hawaii for around $200 that are for flights departing the next day or the day after that....for all other AS destinations like LAX or SEA, the last minute fares seem to be at their highest, but the Hawaii flights seem to consistently go back to the lowest fare bucket a day or two before departure....to a lesser extent, I've also seen this with some of the Mexico flights. I'm assuming this is intentional on the part of AS and has something to do with trying to fill-up flights to primarily leisure destinations (although you don't see this with Florida cities like MCO).

Have any of you ever decided to take advantage of the low price and buy a ticket to Hawaii for the next day??? I feel like I've missed the boat on getting a good airfare for the holidays, but maybe not

Why? I'm convinced it's because of an algorithm or some bored price setter at AS who can't decide what the fare.


I've been tracking my flight to Maui in December and it has bounced around every week for the past 2 weeks. The fare jumps down to $203 and then up to $309 for about 24 hours and then back down the next day. This has happened 3 times now.

John
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Old Nov 18, 14, 5:26 pm
  #9  
 
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I've gone to Maui on a whim about four times using just this method. I've literally bought a ticket four hours before takeoff simply because it was $199. I love it, and so does my MVPG re-qualification, haha.
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Old Nov 18, 14, 6:07 pm
  #10  
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Originally Posted by tombiro View Post
I've gone to Maui on a whim about four times using just this method. I've literally bought a ticket four hours before takeoff simply because it was $199. I love it, and so does my MVPG re-qualification, haha.
Except for being at the bottom of the upgrade list....how does that work out by the way?
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Old Nov 18, 14, 6:55 pm
  #11  
 
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Originally Posted by PDXPremier View Post
Except for being at the bottom of the upgrade list....how does that work out by the way?
I did a series of dummy searches out of BLI --- there was a fairly high correlation between cheap fares reasonably close in with U space availability to HNL using Gold Guest Upgrade certs.

That would suggest that there might be a strong correlation on space available upgrades.
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Old Nov 18, 14, 7:10 pm
  #12  
 
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Wow. I booked GEG-HNL on DL since at the time it was cheaper. Now AS is $250 cheaper for the exact same days.
Good to know for the future.
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Old Nov 18, 14, 8:31 pm
  #13  
 
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Originally Posted by PDXPremier View Post
Except for being at the bottom of the upgrade list....how does that work out by the way?
Probably about 50-75% success. I've been 1/3 on the upgrade list before, numerous times. If not, I'm sitting in the exit row basically 100% of the time.

MOST of my Hawaii flights do not seem to have a ton of status people on them, to be honest. Maybe I'm crazy. Hell, I've been upgraded on DL from HNL this year because I was one of the only people with status (and had booked that ticket a few weeks in advance).

For the last two years, both on PVR and OGG/HNL flights, we've had nothing but luck getting upgraded, probably running about that same clip throughout, as MVPG and 75K.

So that said, pretty well.
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Old Nov 19, 14, 11:24 am
  #14  
 
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As for Hawaii fares getting cheaper a day or two before departure, AS probably has a few empty seats and opens them up for FF award travel and low "last minute" fares. They are obviously taking the approach of having higher fares further out, seeing if the seats sell at the higher fares, and then releasing them at the last minute if they don't totally sell out.

That said, during peak periods, the fares often do NOT come down right before departure because AS has sold all the seats. So, I would not depend on being able to get a lower fare (or credit for a future flight).
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