beckoa

As reported in the DL forum:
I'm amazed at the lift DL has added to SEA in the past year, specifically piggybacking AS' routes. SEA-LAX links two of DL's International Gateways. But with SEA-LAS,SFO and a seasonal ANC... wow. Will AS react? Can we gain a frequency to DTW or JFK? Does AS have the lift to react? Or as someone posted in the DL version, is this another nail for VX...

golfingboy

With the expanded international service out of SEA, DL has probably seen their customer base grow considerably, so they are adding service to tailor to the expanded customer base. Most of them would prefer to fly on DL metal not AS+DL metal.

It is always much more convenient when a trip involves one airline, and business travelers prefer that. If I am flying on AS SFO-SEA then DL SEA-PVG and the AS flight goes mechanical in SFO, AS will be very limited at how they can reaccommodate that customer compared to having a DL SFO-SEA flight go pear shaped.

AS is not going to react, DL is doing what is best for DL and AS will do what is best for AS. That might mean reduced frequencies now that DL flies it, no point for AS to offer the same # of frequencies when the aircraft can be used on more profitable routes with little or no competition. Or add more frequencies on those routes to protect their territory.

Or just simply do nothing and just move along. Time will tell. But DL is starting to look more attractive for west coast customers and I think UA is going to be the biggest loser here and rightly so with their ridiculous cuts/downgauges...

eponymous_coward

That's a lot of lift on SEA-SFO/LAX between AS, DL, UA and VX. Great for price wars. Not so great for the airlines

What makes you think that DL's going to stop at SEA-SFO?

I think there's a good chance the AS-DL partnership disappears within the next few years- once DL has all the feed they need at SEA, why bother? I also think DL is trying to do a "merge or die" on AS.

golfingboy

Never said they will stop, was just pointing out all possible scenarios AS will do [concede, attack, or do nothing]. I think DL is going to continue to add more routes and slowly erode AS's customer base. I think DL has an ulterior motive here, but that is all speculation on my part.

AS may be a partner, but in the end they are competition for DL and the best way to drive up profits aside from innovation is by eliminating competition [mergers, acquistion, putting them out of business, territorial monopoly like the cable companies, etc].

CommiseRate

Let's get this merger over with.

Eastbay1K

AS already has much reduced capacity over years past on the route. Most SFO flyers (even on DL) don't need to fly to SEA to get across the Pacific.

Interesting move. I doubt AS is going to dump capacity and start a fare war (not that one may not occur).

lebowski2222

It's quite possible this turns into a Denver a la Southwest trying to eliminate Frontier and erode United

jsguyrus

I see a lot about this AS vs. DL "war" on several blogs. I am not so sure that there really is a war going on. I think it is more likely that with DL's massive increase in international flying out of SEA that AS is not able to provide sufficient feed. These are E175 that DL is operating so we are not really talking that much volume.

Often1

Two entirely separate business models. DL did not get into upping its West Coast game (including SFO-LAX) to engage in a price war which ultimately hurts the bottom line. There's little in this for DL and everything in it for AS.

If this experiment fails, DL can repurpose its West Coast microhaul strategy in a few weeks. AS, on the other hand, can't really do that.

Chugach

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Seems that DL is cherry picking the bigger west coast O&D routes from SEA...LAX, LAS, HNL (albeit a NW inheritance), ANC (albeit seasonally), and now SFO.

beckoa

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Hawaii has lost most of the legacy NW service (well at least half) at the hands of AS.

DL also has more of these smaller regional a/c on order too, but primaraly for replacement of CRJ200's.

ANC

they could possibly invade MSP from the north direction

beckoa

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Ooo I like this

Perhaps next summer?

golfingboy

Not quite, DL has 100 739ERs that they are going to start receiving them now.. 12 by the end of the year then 19 planes every year through 2017. They also have the A321s and A330s on order. DL's mainline orderbook is bigger than the entire AS fleet including QX and that does not include the E-Jet order.

Quite frankly AS is small potatoes compared to WN, DL, UA, and the new AA if the merger goes through.

Those airlines are vastly bigger and much more versatile than AS when it comes to expanding into new markets and shifting things around.

I think DL is piggy backing on AS right now as they build their customer base in SEA and the west coast (they are expanding LAX too) then when they feel their west coast network is strong and established with a solid customer base, there is no point for them to keep AS then they will dump AS. It is business, they are not there to be sentimental or get all cutesy with competitors, they are there to make money. Screwing AS wouldn't be the first time, DL screwed many of their SkyTeam partners in recent months. Again, all speculation, we will see in a couple of years. All of this recent development is certainly intriguing.

WRT to Hawaii service, it is not just AS, Hawaiian has expanded a lot, and I figure DL felt they weren't in a good position to compete in the low yielding high volume Hawaii market and elected to downsize the service.

beckoa

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