golfingboy

Re-read the 3Q earnings call, and yes AS is extending the leases on three 734s for only one year [2011 to 2012]... However, I still stand with my no new routes over 2,000 miles prediction...

"Hi, Hunter this is Andrew. As it relates to the 8% to 9% growth, on average we have about 100 or so airplanes flying at any point in time so every point of growth is about one airplane. So if you round it to about eight airplanes 5.5 of those will be going to Hawaii and Mexico, the majority to Hawaii and then the other 2.5 aircrafts that are just spread around our system, We annualized the new St. Louis. So big picture really this is all the markets we’ve announced this year and carrying them over to next year plus the new Hawaii in the first quarter is basically makes up that entire growth.

So that airplanes work mostly in Hawaii and Mexico and we’ve been very pleased with the performance of those regions."

Tide_from_PAE

Somewhat Likely
1. AS begins more SEA/PDX-DL Hub Routes, SLC being the most likely.

2. AS finds a way to get more 738 aircraft or seriously considers leasing another aircraft type.

3. DL dismantles Comair and sells its certificate to AAG for $1. In return, QX begins operations out of ATL as "Delta Horizon". AAG uses Comair's certificate for a new aircraft type.

4. AS Elite benefits, but not upgrades, come to AA in October. AS elites may be able to purchase upgrade stickers at the gate.

5. AS decides to rebrand QX operations with a name such as Western Connection operated by Horizon (Alaska Express or Alaska Connection would confuse infrequent flyers even more), but public backlash forces AS to keep the QX branding. In response, QX gets a Lewis and Clark-themed aircraft.

6. PNW (and CA) wines and microbrews remain free on QX.

7. Lemonade returns on summer flights and AS decides to do themed months for food/beverages since Hawaii month was well-received.

Unlikely

1. Mileage redemption on Allegiant.

2. The MD-80 returns in the form of ex-AA aircraft operated by AS crews. Tim is featured on one of the aircraft as a special livery.

3. DL sends out memos to staff stating that it is partners with Alaska Airlines, not "Alaskan Airlines."

Waitlisted

PDX/EWR would compete with PDX/JFK on Delta and JetBlue as well as PDX/EWR on Continental. CO and DL already leave about the same time in the AM, AS would need to do the same. I would LOVE it, but dont see it.

PDX/ONT/BUR and in the future PSP and maybe even PHX on somethng other than a 737 or Q400 that does not have propellers I do see (so why not keep the CR7?)

AS maybe try PDX/MCO again but not a redeye. I have to go there often and would not take a redeye. Also booking this one on AS (via SEA) from PDX is always way more than DL. Just booked today for February, was $780 on AS and $410 on DL so am on DL. Business folks wont take the redeye, and families dont like it either. Screaming kids dont sleep at night going down, cant check into hotel and then you have to get them up too early on the way back.

AS for 2011 please give PDX some (non QX) love!

Eastbay1K

Likely - MVPGs are going to be pissed off that despite the promises of "no reduction of MVPG benefits," the # of 75Ks are going to materially diminish the benefits, even though the published benefits have not decreased.

fishferbrains

I''d love to predict (wish?) that AS offers a direct YVR->SJC flight.

I promise to be good. Very good.

golfingboy

Another prediction here....

MVPG Christmas Cookies gift returns

makfan

I expect to have more upgrade misses. If you are going to take a group of people and split them into two groups, the ones in the less-privileged group are going to miss on upgrades more often. I can't see any other way it will work out.

I only missed one upgrade through October 31 (and that was the shortest AS flight I ever take, the nighttime SEA-YVR). I missed several SFO-SEA-SFO in November and one in December. Perhaps it was the addition of the 75K level, or perhaps it was just people buying F or using coupons/miles to jump ahead of me.

However, I don't expect any other benefit degradations this year. I would not entirely be surprised if the change fee waiver eventually applied only to the 75K level.

makfan

The whole AS-AA partnership will be interesting. I also expect AA won't allow upgrades as they don't allow comp to anyone but their EXP flyers.

Of course, I am a MVPG and an EXP flyer, but when I book SFO-LAX (AA)-YVR(AS), I have to choose to be an elite on one flight and a non-status passenger on the other. I choose AS as I would rather UG the 3-hour LAX-YVR over the 1-hour SFO-LAX. The current system doesn't even allow me to get an exit row on the AA flight. I have to flash my AA EXP card to use the priority access line and board early (and sometimes they don't want to let me even with the card).

One time when I did the reverse flight order, an AA agent helped me out by changing the FF number to my AA number, which actually got me into the F cabin for LAX-SFO, but then the whole trip credited to AA and I lost 1000 AS EQMs. Sigh.

Points Scrounger

Agreed that AA benefits will come this year - not exactly "reciprocal" as their elites have AS pre-boarding already! I would be annoyed if we had to buy "stickers" as I have two unused ones in my AA account from a past elite year.

If QX does away with free beer/wine, and no elite comp, I suspect they'll be hearing about it.

sectflyer

Maybee SEA-BDL

Points Scrounger

I think PVD would happen first!

Chugach

Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU iPhone OS 4_2_1 like Mac OS X; en-us) AppleWebKit/533.17.9 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/5.0.2 Mobile/8C148 Safari/6533.18.5)

I also think we will see some smaller QX stations axed this year. If I had to wager, I'd put ALW near the top of that list, due to its close proximity to the much larger PSC.

JPat

STS/PHX
SEA/RSW
SEA/MSY
SEA/ABQ
PAE to somewhere, I really don't care where I just want to see this area get another mainline airport. It would divert surface traffic off of I-5 and stretch out our attractiveness to tourists and business. If the cruise ships ever decided to dock in Everett this would be done so fast our heads would fly off.

QX please take another long look at flying out of Mesa,AZ. I still think there are interesting West Coast opportunities there.

For the Canucks; thrice weekly BLI/PSP

sxf24

I know the ALW schedule has fluctuated over the past few years in an attempt to get sustainable loads. This may be the most realistic prediction yet, as opposed to the deterioration into an AS wish list...

mthoodfan

Same plane (one-stop) service: PDX-BOI-ORD

This would allow AS to market two flights daily between PDX-ORD and also allow for a nonstop BOI-ORD flight and a mainline BOI-PDX flight.