If you started in Noveber 2017 I think you have a pretty good start ;) Wouldn't that be two years?

James

so that I can use CX F lounge, JL F lounge? haha

my 4 years old niece is 20% on her way to lifetime oneworld emerald status which is more valuable than lifetime MVP gold.

I've done the math and I don't think it works out.

I want to fly transcon round trips a few times per year. It's important to me that I'm in Y+ or better.

AS with status: I can find fares for $250-$320. As MVPG, I will earn 10k+ miles and can select a Y+ seat for free. You've said that you are willing to buy miles, so earning 10k miles saves $200. Net cost: $50 - $120.
AS with no status: $250-$320, again. Y+ is $100+ in each direction. So we are looking at about $500. No status means that you earn $100 worth of miles. Net cost = $400.
AA with no status: Same fare to avoid basic economy. Again Y+ is $100+ in each direction, so, again, $500. A $300 fare will earn you 1500 miles. Even if you value them at 2c per mile (that's a harder case to make, but, whatever) that's $30 worth of miles. Net cost = $470.
AA wth status: Same fare, but Y+ is free. So, just like AS, $250-$320. Now you earn 8 miles / $ instead of 5, so... 2400 miles or so. Net cost is $200 - $270.

Oh, and, the "AS with status" option gives me waived change fees as well, on top of being the cheapest by a factor of 2-3.

My takeaway: Not having status is EXPENSIVE if you want those Y+ seats, and the miles on AS provide a SIGNIFICANT rebate on the cost of airfare. It's not REMOTELY close.

When/if AS abandons "a mile flown is a mile earned" they will be no better than AA. It will still be beneficial to have status with someone (to avoid the Y+ upcharge) but it will be less clear which airline to choose.

Short hops are different. I think that you can make a very solid case for WN, although now that the buy-up has dropped to $10-$15 on many short hops, it's harder. Even the shortest round trips will earn 2000 miles ($40) as MVPG, which wipes out the cost of the buy-up.

If you earn more miles than you can redeem, then valuing them at 2c is probably wrong. But if not (if you are seriously considering buying miles at 2c) then it doesn't make sense to value them at any less than 2c.
If you don't care about Y+ (or aren't willing to pay $100+ for it on long flights) then it doesn't make sense to value at at that much... but, I do. So if you are ok sitting in 28-middle for 6 hours, status is worth less than I'm stating here.

have you considered delta skymiles to redeem comfort class directly?
how often can u get that price for AS transon in R class with the introduction of saver fare.?

Well previously $127 was easy to get. With the buyup it's $157, so still under $320 round trip.

But now those $127 main fares have popped up again, with no saver available. I posted about it in the basic econ thread. I'm not sure if this is short term or long term. However, even at $157 each way, I feel it provides very good value as Gold, for the reasons I outlined above.

Living in SF, Delta is not a great choice, and their miles are the least valuable out of any of them. I'd probably go with United before Delta, although with so many UA high-level elites here, I'd probably often not be able to get a premium seat even as Gold, and I don't fly enough to be Platinum or 1k.

You'd probably be complaining about UA even as a 1K. I've been flying UA for years, but never really enough miles to get past gold occasionally. I still have to fly them sometimes because they're our corporate contract. Plus they have more network and many more flights on some of the routes I fly, but if OAL are cheaper I can book away. If you spend any time on the UA forum, even the 1Ks complain about lack of upgrades. And if you're flying biz routes the plane fills when BG1 boards because there are so many elites. I tend to be stuck at silver and usually book less than a week out (very occasionally 2-3 weeks out) so I have to act like it's WN and check in right at T-24 to get an E+ seat, and sometimes am risking getting stuck in a middle. And that's out of LAX. SFO will be much more elite heavy. Meanwhile in my first year as just an MVP on AS I'm running about 70% upgrades - half back and forth to PDX and half to/from the east coast.

And even less than a week out I'm seeing ~$400 LAX-BOS on AS, but unfortunately our UA discount puts them even lower. I realized after reply a few posts up about saver fares being an alternative to EQD that it's likely to hurt me, because our UA fares will come in cheaper than Main more often.

Flying in/out of SF is different. I'm 100% getting Y+ as just MVP (I won't be gold til later this month). SEA or PDX would be a very different story, I'm sure.

There is definitely a balancing act :) I want enough of a network that I can get where I want to go, but not so much that there are a huge number of high-level elites and I can't get anything with my low-mid tier status.

Insert Cake! To chew or not to chew, that is the question! ;) lol Teasing of course.

James

from time to time, there are other extremely good promotion on other airlines to obtain a lot of airmiles at a favorable. example, IB 90000 miles. i did it for 2 acct. (me and my dad) 600 USD for 180k IB miles.
There are other one off deals like that from time to time. there is no reason to be fixated with AS 2cpm buy miles.

historically, i have only purchased miles in the following deals. US Airs share miles 50000 US miles for 570 USD. I did 800k US Air miles.
Lifemiles many years ago when they mis classified GUM as north american and allowed people to book USA - TYO - GUM for 25000 in J class (i bought miles for 1.4c per miles for 25000 miles).

Talking about AS miles being cheap for flying 50K in J on CX which is 1000 USD is just not really cheap comparing what people had done for years.

AS upgrades quite good compared to my experience on AA as a former Platinum
 

By advance, you mean like months in advance when you buy? I get cheapo fares (so I can never choose PC when I buy my ticket), but I always just check my app three days prior and usually I can find an aisle or window seat in premium class (actually, I can technically check more than three days prior - for example, a flight that leaves in three days at 6pm, I can check more than three days (like as soon as I wake up on the morning of the third day before) and snag a PC seat. If PC has no aisle seats, I just wait T-24 and then snag a PC aisle at check-in. I also get upgraded to first a ton. Way more than I ever did on American as a Platinum. I think I am spoiled, however, because I fly out of PDX and almost never go through SEA if I can help it. So, perhaps I don't encounter as much elite competition as the SEA-based folks do.:cool:

But, my flights on AS may dwindle somewhat if they continue to simply keep the old Main fares as the new Saver fares. I've got a wait-and-see approach.

As for WN, I love them for short haul flights with my drink coupons (and as an A-Lister, I can almost always get the exit row if somewhere in 1-30 boarding), but they can be a bit tiresome/challenging for long haul flights if I haven't had a chance to eat - as there are no food options - and no power outlets for that dying computer when I need to work.

Even PDX isn't necessarily bad depending on the route - I fly PDX-LAX/BUR and do very well on upgrades. Other routes may not be as easy to get them.

AS has been meeting the network vs. elites requirement for me this year. They just need to keep the prices competitive with inside-7-days UA corporate fares and I'll be happy.