German domestic capacity capacity could drop 25% in 2018 with loss of AB, HV and PE
Oct 25, 2017, 4:55 am
#1
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German domestic capacity capacity could drop 25% in 2018 with loss of AB, HV and PE
Originally Posted by anna.aero
This summer airberlin had a 24% market share of seats in the German domestic market. While Lufthansa has agreed to take on 81 airberlin aircraft, which it is speculated the company will use to enhance the operations of in-house LCC Eurowings, it has not yet been confirmed which markets these new assets will be deployed in. Currently Eurowings is indicating a 13% increase in German domestic seats for S18 when compared to this summer, however that growth will only account for 10% of all seats operated by airberlin in S17. This figure, however, is very likely to change. Other parts of the airberlin business are apparently being considered by easyJet, which if true could see the LCC commence operations from Berlin Tegel, however as yet no word has been given about a potential deal. Currently easyJet does not operate in the German domestic market and it only serves Berlin Schönefeld, Hamburg, Munich, Stuttgart, Dortmund, Dresden and Friedrichshafen from international destinations.
Oct 25, 2017, 7:58 am
#2
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You really don't have to run an analysis to state this. 
If LH & co decided to unwisely use the situation to price high, people will either move to alternatives (rail, car etc) or RYR/EZY will move in.
If LH & co decided to unwisely use the situation to price high, people will either move to alternatives (rail, car etc) or RYR/EZY will move in.
Oct 25, 2017, 9:39 am
#3
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Well I have just looked up a typical mid-week TXL-FRA-TXL in cheapo Y with two overnights in FRA for early November. Something I have been doing very regularly for many years now.
AB had a small number of flights TXL-FRA and reverse (nothing like the hourly LH offering), but these never really suited my schedule, although they were invariably about 15-20% cheaper than LH. In any case, I always had to clock up sufficient LH flights every two years to retain my FTL status.
I recall always being a bit miffed if I found myself having to pay more than € 138 for the trip on LH. Atm the cheapest I can see is almost € 100 more than that.
So I believe the fares are already being iked up and, yes, I will definitely be considering alternatives like DB or car if this situation continues (especially in the case of TXL-MUC with the new fast ICE connection which will start in December).
AB had a small number of flights TXL-FRA and reverse (nothing like the hourly LH offering), but these never really suited my schedule, although they were invariably about 15-20% cheaper than LH. In any case, I always had to clock up sufficient LH flights every two years to retain my FTL status.
I recall always being a bit miffed if I found myself having to pay more than € 138 for the trip on LH. Atm the cheapest I can see is almost € 100 more than that.
So I believe the fares are already being iked up and, yes, I will definitely be considering alternatives like DB or car if this situation continues (especially in the case of TXL-MUC with the new fast ICE connection which will start in December).
Oct 25, 2017, 12:15 pm
#4
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Interestingly enough I saw that LG took over SCN-TXL while browsing the news about AB's demise. In the long term Germany's going to need a alternative though. Otherwise it's going to be a choice between FR/U2 or LH.
I wonder what the EC got to say about the acquisition in terms of anti-trust.
Oct 25, 2017, 2:17 pm
#6
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For TXL-MUC and vv the opening of the new train tracks will draw a huge share to Deutsche Bahn.
Total travel time below 4 hrs from Berlin Hbf to Munich Hbf on the ICE Sprinter, 3 trains a day each direction.
For the regular ICE the total travel time goes down to 4:30 hrs.
Both very attractive durations, totally competitive to flying the route.
Total travel time below 4 hrs from Berlin Hbf to Munich Hbf on the ICE Sprinter, 3 trains a day each direction.
For the regular ICE the total travel time goes down to 4:30 hrs.
Both very attractive durations, totally competitive to flying the route.
Oct 25, 2017, 2:32 pm
#7
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Air Berlin had the cologne Berlin government contract, which is about 33-35 k tickets each year. Now the ministry people have to sit 5h in a train till a new contract is found.
Last month we did Berlin in a rental car (sixt bmw 540) out and on the train in first back. Cost me 250€ total for the four of us. LH wanted 600€.
Last month we did Berlin in a rental car (sixt bmw 540) out and on the train in first back. Cost me 250€ total for the four of us. LH wanted 600€.
Oct 25, 2017, 4:12 pm
#9
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How many monies were those tickets? At some point shuttling people around got to be more expensive to having moved everybody from Bonn to Berlin (or just staying in Bonn).
Oct 26, 2017, 1:37 am
#10
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Other than FR's seasonal SXF-CGN service - which ends on Saturday and returns in Summer 18 - there don't appear to be many domestic flights from SXF. [Transavia's service from MUC ends today. Germania has a service to DUS on Saturday that seems to be a one-off]
And it's not an AB airport (Look at the title: "AB's Top 12 German domestic airports").
They are also not AB airports; therefore, their situation doesn't change due to the failure of AB.
And it's not an AB airport (Look at the title: "AB's Top 12 German domestic airports").
They are also not AB airports; therefore, their situation doesn't change due to the failure of AB.
Last edited by irishguy28; Oct 26, 2017 at 1:46 am
Oct 26, 2017, 1:51 am
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Lufthansa gets a lesson on how to squeeze its passengers
Originally Posted by Bloomberg
If you're thinking of taking a trip to a German-speaking country, keep an eye on Deutsche Lufthansa AG's share price. The more it rises, the more your flight could end up costing.
In the wake of Air Berlin Plc's collapse, investors expect Lufthansa to face less competition in its home markets, including Switzerland and Austria. Fewer rivals usually means less fare pressure on fares. Lufthansa's yields have already started to improve. Great for investors; not necessarily for passengers.
Air Berlin's demise removes a key Lufthansa competitor on intra-Germany routes
There's precedent here. The once fragmented U.S domestic aviation market is now highly concentrated after a succession of bankruptcies and mergers. Some U.S. airports are now served by one or two carriers, making it easier for airlines to boost fares and charge more for extra services like second bags. Lufthansa boss Carsten Spohr speaks admiringly of the 90 percent domestic market share controlled by a handful of U.S. airlines.
In fairness, cheap flights aren't a birth right. The financial collapse of airlines like Air Berlin and the U.K.'s Monarch suggests they weren't charging enough to cover costs. It's true also that budget carriers are now free to pick up some of Air Berlin's former slots and add more flights to German airports. However, some hubs such as Vienna, Zurich and Munich have a relative shortage of take-off slots.
Margrethe Vestager, the EU competition commissioner, is concerned about the very high market shares Lufthansa would gain on some routes. Lufthansa might help its cause by not sounding quite so allergic to competition.
In the wake of Air Berlin Plc's collapse, investors expect Lufthansa to face less competition in its home markets, including Switzerland and Austria. Fewer rivals usually means less fare pressure on fares. Lufthansa's yields have already started to improve. Great for investors; not necessarily for passengers.
Air Berlin's demise removes a key Lufthansa competitor on intra-Germany routes
There's precedent here. The once fragmented U.S domestic aviation market is now highly concentrated after a succession of bankruptcies and mergers. Some U.S. airports are now served by one or two carriers, making it easier for airlines to boost fares and charge more for extra services like second bags. Lufthansa boss Carsten Spohr speaks admiringly of the 90 percent domestic market share controlled by a handful of U.S. airlines.
In fairness, cheap flights aren't a birth right. The financial collapse of airlines like Air Berlin and the U.K.'s Monarch suggests they weren't charging enough to cover costs. It's true also that budget carriers are now free to pick up some of Air Berlin's former slots and add more flights to German airports. However, some hubs such as Vienna, Zurich and Munich have a relative shortage of take-off slots.
Margrethe Vestager, the EU competition commissioner, is concerned about the very high market shares Lufthansa would gain on some routes. Lufthansa might help its cause by not sounding quite so allergic to competition.
Oct 27, 2017, 2:29 pm
#12
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