End of cheap TATL flights in J?

Old Oct 9, 2020, 4:17 pm
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End of cheap TATL flights in J?

I've been taking advantage of cheap business class flights between France and the US during COVID with Air France. The most recent ticket purchased to fly over in November and back a few days before Christmas ended up being only 1100 EUR. But now looking at a January trip to New York the price is coming to 3200 EUR the cheapest. I guess AF either has wishful thinking or some inside knowledge that TATL travel will be without restrictions in January. Hopefully they aren't betting on the US election! Either way, I will hold off buying anymore tickets in hopes that the prices stay low.

Of course I really hope that restrictions go away and business returns, even if it costs me more to fly.
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Old Oct 9, 2020, 10:04 pm
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I think they are only following their usual pattern: lower prices during times when there is little business traffic (July August November December) and higher prices at other times. Jan Feb is usually very busy on TATL.
Of course this year it does not make sense because they have a lot of seats unsold anyway, but that is also tru for economy seats. I suppose though that they will prefer to offer last minute upgrades or miles upgrades closer to flight dates when they will be sure that the borders remain mostly closed.

In other words they are trying to not cheapen the product, which may or may not work.
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Old Oct 9, 2020, 10:27 pm
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Originally Posted by stimpy
I've been taking advantage of cheap business class flights between France and the US during COVID with Air France. The most recent ticket purchased to fly over in November and back a few days before Christmas ended up being only 1100 EUR. But now looking at a January trip to New York the price is coming to 3200 EUR the cheapest. I guess AF either has wishful thinking or some inside knowledge that TATL travel will be without restrictions in January. Hopefully they aren't betting on the US election! Either way, I will hold off buying anymore tickets in hopes that the prices stay low.

Of course I really hope that restrictions go away and business returns, even if it costs me more to fly.
Maybe there was a bug. All flights in January seem to be selling for 1,200 EUR (return).
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Old Oct 10, 2020, 3:54 am
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Originally Posted by brunos
Maybe there was a bug. All flights in January seem to be selling for 1,200 EUR (return).
I should have added January to JFK, April return. Perhaps it is the April return that is pushing the price high. I'll keep checking.
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Old Oct 10, 2020, 3:43 pm
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I noticed on some exploratory bookings to the UK for early/mid December (via CDG/AMS) a few weeks ago that discounted J fares seemed generally unavailable.

I wonder if AFKL is thinking that, given the chance of cancellations, they may as well treat every ticket as refundable?
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Old Oct 10, 2020, 4:42 pm
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Originally Posted by stimpy
I should have added January to JFK, April return. Perhaps it is the April return that is pushing the price high. I'll keep checking.
The 1200 EUR roundtrip Z fares (fare basis code ZS08CINB) have 3 month maximum stay requirement (in addition to 30-day advance purchase and Saturday night stay requirements). Checking more frequently won't make the 3 month max stay requirement go away.
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Old Oct 13, 2020, 8:25 pm
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Originally Posted by xliioper
The 1200 EUR roundtrip Z fares (fare basis code ZS08CINB) have 3 month maximum stay requirement (in addition to 30-day advance purchase and Saturday night stay requirements). Checking more frequently won't make the 3 month max stay requirement go away.
Good point though in theory, the fare can go up and down regardless of maximum stay requirement
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Old Oct 18, 2020, 7:38 am
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Slightly off-topic but probably not worth starting a new thread as it impacts the size of the offer and thus fares: although the cabins are empty AF has ramped up to three daily JFK rotations, four if one takes the DL codeshare into account. Any guess or insight in the point of doing this? Presence in the market? Further dampen the chances of the upcoming/returning competition of French Bee, Corsair, La Compagnie, AA and UA? Full loads of freight? Keep employees and planes active? Protect slots? Be ready for a quick (and unlikely in my view) re-opening and return of sustained business? Perceived prestige of the route?
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Old Oct 18, 2020, 7:49 am
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Originally Posted by af fp
Slightly off-topic but probably not worth starting a new thread as it impacts the size of the offer and thus fares: although the cabins are empty AF has ramped up to three daily JFK rotations, four if one takes the DL codeshare into account. Any guess or insight in the point of doing this? Presence in the market? Further dampen the chances of the upcoming/returning competition of French Bee, Corsair, La Compagnie, AA and UA? Full loads of freight? Keep employees and planes active? Protect slots? Be ready for a quick (and unlikely in my view) re-opening and return of sustained business? Perceived prestige of the route?
I believe it was more a plan that they are trying to execute, but they will quickly step back if needed by cancelling a few flights and consolidating the bookings in the remaining ones.
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Old Oct 18, 2020, 8:50 am
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Originally Posted by af fp
Slightly off-topic but probably not worth starting a new thread as it impacts the size of the offer and thus fares: although the cabins are empty AF has ramped up to three daily JFK rotations, four if one takes the DL codeshare into account. Any guess or insight in the point of doing this? Presence in the market? Further dampen the chances of the upcoming/returning competition of French Bee, Corsair, La Compagnie, AA and UA? Full loads of freight? Keep employees and planes active? Protect slots? Be ready for a quick (and unlikely in my view) re-opening and return of sustained business? Perceived prestige of the route?
Flight 14/23 are only running for another week AFAIK. There is some talk about a new cargo flight starting up, but at this point it is only talk.
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Old Oct 18, 2020, 9:09 am
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Originally Posted by af fp
Slightly off-topic but probably not worth starting a new thread as it impacts the size of the offer and thus fares: although the cabins are empty AF has ramped up to three daily JFK rotations, four if one takes the DL codeshare into account. Any guess or insight in the point of doing this? Presence in the market? Further dampen the chances of the upcoming/returning competition of French Bee, Corsair, La Compagnie, AA and UA? Full loads of freight? Keep employees and planes active? Protect slots? Be ready for a quick (and unlikely in my view) re-opening and return of sustained business? Perceived prestige of the route?
I flew next to a "cabin crew inspector" (or whatever they call it) a few days ago.
We had a nice chat about the current airline situation, and when bringing up the question of near-empty long-haul flights, he said that the main reasons these days were 1) keeping the staff active 2) keeping track of actual demand.
Slots are apparently not much of a problem these days, and cargo by itself cannot make flights profitable as air shipping rates are almost back to normal.
Long story short, they are still hemorrhaging cash on each flown leg - but they don't have much choice if they want to keep the ball rolling and be there when traffic ramps up again.
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Old Nov 5, 2020, 7:39 pm
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AF 11 cancelled, others?
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Old Nov 6, 2020, 3:56 am
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Originally Posted by kthomas
AF 11 cancelled, others?
My AF 6 reservation is still on, as is AF 11 later in December.

I did notice that my domestic leg which is normally an A319 has changed to an E190 for November. But still an A319 in December.
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