Loads to Asia ?

Old Feb 6, 20, 9:34 am
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Loads to Asia ?

We will be flying to Singapore next week. When I booked these flights they were all full - it’s school holidays in Paris. When I looked on ExpertFlyer today they are all wide-open. I imagine Air France (and others) are experience significantly lower loads to Asia. Any first hand experiences ?
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Old Feb 6, 20, 10:29 am
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Originally Posted by Braniff View Post
I imagine Air France (and others) are experience significantly lower loads to Asia
No , otherwise they would cancel these routes

But it can happen that sometimes planes are not so crowded , depends on many factors
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Old Feb 6, 20, 3:42 pm
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Originally Posted by fifty_two View Post
No , otherwise they would cancel these routes

But it can happen that sometimes planes are not so crowded , depends on many factors

With nearly all fare categories wide open, it would not surprise me to see AF start to reduce capacity.
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Old Feb 7, 20, 2:52 am
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AF is experiencing extremely low load to/from HK (say a quarter full). Even cancelling some of their daily flights. Plenty of UM on HKG-CDG..
The load situation is a bit better for SIN but getting worse . Singapore has the highest number of cases after China and Japan, with a smaller population than HK. Community infection is growing.
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Old Feb 7, 20, 3:00 am
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Originally Posted by brunos View Post
Community infection is growing.
Density of population cannot be helping in places like HK. Stay safe, brunos.
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Old Feb 7, 20, 5:44 am
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Originally Posted by NickB View Post
Density of population cannot be helping in places like HK. Stay safe, brunos.
I live on one of the many islands, in the country side. So quite safe for now. Although considering flying away. Not primarily because of the small risk, but because life has become very constrained and depressing.
Thanks for your kind words NickB.
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Old Feb 7, 20, 3:42 pm
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Indeed stay safe Brunos. I had planned on the family flying from Paris to Singapore next week and us spending the Paris school holidays there. It is a wonderful place to be with kids. But the news just gets worse and worse. I have a lot of confidence in the Singapore government’s handling of the crisis but community spread is now ongoing... When you mentioned Brunos that you were thinking of leaving HK due to just the impact on your quality of life irrespective of your risk assessment, that really hit home for me and greatly helps me make the judgment not to go.

Air France has not issued any waivers so I am now actually debating whether to use our tickets to Singapore and then buy new tickets from there and visits Australia ! It all sounds crazy !!!
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Old Feb 7, 20, 11:32 pm
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Originally Posted by Braniff View Post
Indeed stay safe Brunos. I had planned on the family flying from Paris to Singapore next week and us spending the Paris school holidays there. It is a wonderful place to be with kids. But the news just gets worse and worse. I have a lot of confidence in the Singapore government’s handling of the crisis but community spread is now ongoing... When you mentioned Brunos that you were thinking of leaving HK due to just the impact on your quality of life irrespective of your risk assessment, that really hit home for me and greatly helps me make the judgment not to go.

Air France has not issued any waivers so I am now actually debating whether to use our tickets to Singapore and then buy new tickets from there and visits Australia ! It all sounds crazy !!!
I would certainly not saying that things are getting worse and worse. The media are creating a worldwide panic that is becoming totally ridiculous, like if it was bubonic plague. Yesterday evening, I was in an hotel club lounge in the Middle East for about 90 min. There was a TV with BBC on and during my entire stay it was all and only about the virus and images of healthcare workers wearing NBC-like protecting clothes. Result of this, people are scared. We now have on French TV news some interviews of grandma living in “Trifouilly les oies” (=in the middle of nowhere in France) who is saying she’s very scared to catch the virus and is thinking about buying masks . Regular flu is killing between 500 to 600,000 people every year in the world (source : WHO) without anyone blinking an eye. Ebola : almost 100% mortality rate but did we stopped all flights to Africa ?
Don’t get me wrong, I am certainly not saying that the measures taken to limit the spread are not ustified, they are for sure for most of them, but creating a global fear putting the entire Asian continent under fire is not justified. Personally, I would not hesitate to go to SIN, but It’s always a personal difficult choice of going or not going in that kind of situation and no one has the right to judge.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 12:56 am
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Originally Posted by Goldorak View Post
I would certainly not saying that things are getting worse and worse. The media are creating a worldwide panic that is becoming totally ridiculous, like if it was bubonic plague. Yesterday evening, I was in an hotel club lounge in the Middle East for about 90 min. There was a TV with BBC on and during my entire stay it was all and only about the virus and images of healthcare workers wearing NBC-like protecting clothes. Result of this, people are scared. We now have on French TV news some interviews of grandma living in “Trifouilly les oies” (=in the middle of nowhere in France) who is saying she’s very scared to catch the virus and is thinking about buying masks . Regular flu is killing between 500 to 600,000 people every year in the world (source : WHO) without anyone blinking an eye. Ebola : almost 100% mortality rate but did we stopped all flights to Africa ?
Don’t get me wrong, I am certainly not saying that the measures taken to limit the spread are not ustified, they are for sure for most of them, but creating a global fear putting the entire Asian continent under fire is not justified. Personally, I would not hesitate to go to SIN, but It’s always a personal difficult choice of going or not going in that kind of situation and no one has the right to judge.
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I think the problem is it seems to spread easily and rapidly, would you want to be sitting on the same plane as somebody that has it? This is an interesting website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Old Feb 8, 20, 3:07 am
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Hi Goldorak, you make a good point. This is getting quite OT. Let me just say that i keep switching between two attitudes: 1) the risk is quite small in HK or SG 2) lets not take any unnecessary risk. My advice to anyone who wants to go on vacation ( or even work) in HK or SG is to strictly avoid it. SG government has tried to avoid the hysteria that has seized HK and they pay the price. They kept saying that going to public facilities, holding conferences, etc was safe. Now they get significant community infection although they have no border with China. In HK all schools, universities and most public spaces are closed. SG is starting to follow suit. Being in critical condition for days is no fun. You cant avoid the risk of a crazy pilot crashing a plane, but going to SG or HK with stress and a much reduced quality of life is not rational.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 5:07 am
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Originally Posted by Andy49 View Post
I think the problem is it seems to spread easily and rapidly
that plus the fact that there are still many unknowns.
Yes, we did not stop flights to Africa during the Ebola epidemic. But Ebola is far more difficult to transmit than 2019-nCoV. At the height of the Ebola epidemic, we counted roughly 30,000 cases in the space of three years (2014 to 2016). We seem to have reached the same number of infections with 2019-nCoV in less than 2 months. OTOH, 2019-nCov is far less deadly than Ebola but we still do not know what kind of fatality rate is associated with the disease. We are at about 2% now although this is likely to be a substantial over-evaluation as time progresses. By way of comparison, seasonal flu's fatality rate is around 0.05%. Seasonal flu is something that we know, we know how to contain it, in particular through immunisation of populations at risk, etc.. By contrast, there is still a lot that we still do not know about 2019-nCoV and vaccine development seems to be at least a year away. Even with a very low mortality rate, if the rate of spread is high, you quickly reach a large number of deaths. From that perspective, given all the unknowns, it is perhaps not surprising that a number of states adopt unusually restrictive measures, even though one can take issue with this or that particular measure.

That said, is there excessive panic? Of course, there is. We are notoriously bad at evaluating risk and Goldorak's Trifouilly les oies's grandma anecdote is an example of that. Look at terrorism: even though the odds of being caught in a terrorist incident are infinitesimally small, that does not prevent people from worrying about it. But I am not sure that there is any acceptable way of avoiding it. On balance, I would rather have a press which perhaps overdoes it somewhat to a press that muzzles itself. It seems to me that the very start of the 2019-nCoV saga bears testimony to the dangers of attempting to suppress information in order to avoid panicking the public.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 5:15 am
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H1N1 was (and still is! they just call it "part of seasonal flu" now..) much worse than Corona (or SARS) ever was.

Media back then didn't even report 5% of what they currently do. The US never put any sensible measures into place. That's how you let it spread (and now killing tenthousands every season..)
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Old Feb 8, 20, 5:54 am
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Originally Posted by YuropFlyer View Post
H1N1 was (and still is! they just call it "part of seasonal flu" now..) much worse than Corona (or SARS) ever was.

Media back then didn't even report 5% of what they currently do. The US never put any sensible measures into place. That's how you let it spread (and now killing tenthousands every season..)
H1N1 was/is more contagious but with a much lower fatality rate (0.02%), of the same order of magnitude as seasonal flu. SARS had a fatality rate of almost 10%.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 6:02 am
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The reason I looked at this thread is because I am in Asia and next month I will be passing trough a busy airport and then sitting on an A380 back to Europe. I will be touching things that many others have touched, security will no doubt be touching my things and we will all be breathing the same air. Yes I am concerned, I wouldn't want to pass it on to my family and I don't like a 1 in 50 chance of death. So the more news the better for me.
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Old Feb 8, 20, 6:33 am
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Originally Posted by Andy49 View Post
.I don't like a 1 in 50 chance of death.
It does not work like that. Even if the mortality rate did end up at 2%, (bearing in mind that it is more likely to go down as time progresses) it would not mean that you would personally have 1 in 50 chance of dying from it if you caught the virus, quite apart from the fact that the odds of catching it merely by being in an airport is extremely low.If your immune system is already compromised, then it would be sensible to take additional precautions. Apart from that, if you are that risk averse, I would suggest that you avoid getting into a taxi or any form of road transport to go to/from the airport as the risk of your being in a road accident is substantially higher than getting severely ill through 2019-nCoV.
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