At 61K SQM - strategy for 2022 and 2023?
 

Due to a difficult family situation (illnesses and then a death in the family), I've been flying YYZ-YVR-YYZ frequently since late 2021. Combine that with the 2022 Get Closer to Status promo, and I've now reached a little over 61K SQM and 19.7K SQD. The pace of travel will slow down for the rest of the year, although I have one trip booked for next week (redemption with a priority reward and confirmed upgrade in one direction, J flight using Coast-to-Coast pass in the other) and another return trip booked in PE for early August. I'll probably make at least 2, maybe 3 more, return trips before the end of 2022.

I also have the Amex Aeroplan Reserve card (and a supplementary card for Mr frogoutofwater). My Aeroplan points balance is relatively low (about 280K) and I'm a long way from reaching MM status.

Our travel plans for 2023 and 2024 likely will involve: 1) 4-5 trips for me to Vancouver; 2) a few trips to NYC (for work and leisure); and 3) possibly some European travel in late 2023 or in 2024. I usually fly in PE on the trips to the West Coast (or trans-Atlantic trips), but fly in Y for shorter trips.

75K is within reach in 2022, but it's highly unlikely that I'd reach 75K in 2023 and 50K will be a bit of a stretch. So I'm wondering what my strategy should be for the remainder of 2022, after I complete the August trip:

1) Use Aeroplan points (and Priority Rewards) for any remaining trips to YVR, stay below 75K and select lower requalification threshold (45K) for a 2023 benefit? (I have 3 Eco rewards and will earn 1 PE reward in the next few months.)
2) Aim for 75K in 2022 (easy to achieve if I book with $ in the remainder of the year)? Am I correct in thinking that Air Canada doesn't have a "soft landing" concept?

Depends what's important to you.

- you're going to clear the threshold for SE spending with room to spare

- it sounds like your past and planned travel totals about 70,000 SQM (~61K flown, ~3K for the J return next week, ~5K for the PE r/t in August)

- if you're going to do two more YVR-YYZ trips in PE or better, that's another 10-12K SQM, putting you a little over 82K.

At that point, something like a $1,900 business-class MR YVR-IAH-EZE return would put you over the top to SE for 2023.

Just a thought.

Sorry for your loss. Your 2022 SQM and SQD give you early 75k status for 2022 and status for 2023. As another poster mentioned, one flight to Europe before September 30th will give you SE throughout 2023. Your credit card can help rollover eupgrade credits to 2023 if you have any at the end of the year.

As stated above, you are good for SE on the SQD, just need that extra SQM.
So close to enjoying the SE benefit.....Only you can determine your own priority of life choices. There are and will be many good milages runs with low cost to accumulate those needed SQM for the benefit of your planned 2023 trips, especially to Europe. There are a lot of experienced and friendly folks on this site that can help you, just asl and you will get a bunch of suggestions. YOWgary who is an expert in this area already suggested an option.

I'd take a quick holiday to europe or asia like suggested (if you're able) to snatch up SE as it definitely is worth the upgrade over 75k. Even if i was flying 50k sqm ish next year, I'd personally do the mileage run/vacation for SE.

Another vote for SE especially you'll be so close. The incremental value over 75K is huge.

Thanks for the replies so far! I hadn't considered aiming for SE this year, and once upon a time I would have been keen for mileage runs to achieve status.

But now, not so much, and especially this year. (It's been brutal - and expensive.) I should have been clearer that my priorities are:
1) Maintaining a status (and getting benefits) that are greater than what I get through my Amex Aeroplan Reserve card - at least into 2024, when I expect to reduce my work hours and be able to travel more for leisure. 2022 is going to be about travelling to see family in the aftermath of the health crises of 2021-2022. There will be some travel for fun in 2023, and hopefully more in 2024.
2) Finding the $ sweet spot between buying cash fares (to build SQD and SQM) and saving money through reward seats (and benefiting from Priority Rewards and eUpgrades.

So, I think it's really a question of whether 75K is significantly better than 50K, such that it would worth spending $ to get to 75K this year. Undoubtedly SE would be better than 50K but I don't think I'll really be in a position to get a lot of benefit from SE in 2022-2023, so wouldn't it be better to roll over SQM in excess of 50K to 2022?

That's a question only you can answer. However, from what you've told us, you won't be rolling over nearly 50K SQM; as soon as you hit 75,000 this year, you'll qualify 75K, at which point I believe you'll only roll over (total SQM - 75,000), and since you've told us you expect roughly 75-80,000 SQM this year, you won't roll over very many.

Another option, which I appreciate can be challenging, is finding ~$100K to push through the AMEX before the end of the year + buying your remaining planned trips cash per above.

If you reached 75k you'd be able to gift E35K status to Mr. frogoutofwater (or another friend/family member) which might help make next year's travel more comfortable for them. A couple of years ago I gave E35 status (extended multiple times during Covid) to a nephew who lives in BC. He's traveled several times to see my sister in Ontario, makes good use of the MLLs, and has had great luck with using his Eup credits with Flex fares.

I also don't think we've seen the end of the promotions for this year. There might be something in the fall that makes it easy for you to get a bump from 75k to SE - it happened in the two previous years. Or, you may find you're close enough that pre-paying some 2023 flights/expenses gets you enough bonus SQM from your Amex Reserve card. The $20K SQD requirement might be a high hurdle though.

Since when is $300 a high hurdle? :p

Um, I didn't want to make assumptions about anyone's financial circumstances?
Nope, missed that!

What does the $100k of spending accomplish? Just the 1,000sqm/$5,000 spend miles? or is there some other promo?

Just the $5000:1000 SQM without flying since OP prefers not to MR

Ah okay, I was hoping there was some bonus SQD @ $100k spend or something. My problem is getting to $20k at the moment, miles came easy this year but the extra spend is tough. Tempting to just use points for the rest of the year and rollover at minimum 25k sqm.